Sunday, October 21, 2012

Monday October 22 Housing and Economic stories



TOP STORIES:

Glut of Solar Panels Poses a New Threat to China - (www.nytimes.com) But now China’s strategy is in disarray. Though worldwide demand for solar panels and wind turbines has grown rapidly over the last five years, China’s manufacturing capacity has soared even faster, creating enormous oversupply and a ferocious price war. The result is a looming financial disaster, not only for manufacturers but for state-owned banks that financed factories with approximately $18 billion in low-rate loans and for municipal and provincial governments that provided loan guarantees and sold manufacturers valuable land at deeply discounted prices. China’s biggest solar panel makers are suffering losses of up to $1 for every $3 of sales this year, as panel prices have fallen by three-fourths since 2008. Even though the cost ofsolar power has fallen, it still remains triple the price ofcoal-generated power in China, requiring substantial subsidies through a tax imposed on industrial users of electricity to cover the higher cost of renewable energy.

Federal takeover of Oakland cops urged – (www.sfgate.com) A historic fight over whether Oakland can reform its own police force began in earnest Thursday when civil rights attorneys asked a federal judge to take the unprecedented step of appointing a receiver to ensure the changes are made. The attorneys said a broken culture in the department had turned a decade-long reform effort into a "chronic failure," endangering citizens - especially minorities - and costing the city tens of millions of dollars to settle police-abuse lawsuits. The lawyers represented more than 100 people who sued the city after four officers, who called themselves the Riders, were accused in 2000 of imposing vigilante justice in West Oakland. In a resulting settlement, Oakland had to implement a raft of reforms - which remain incomplete.

Spain Sees Divorce Driving Breakup of Towns as Recession Deepens - (www.bloomberg.com) At 10 a.m. on a hot Friday, Antonio Rodriguez Alvarez and his brother, Francisco, sit outside a bar in Ecija, Spain, drinking an anise liquor with water. Unemployed laborers, they visit the job center daily at 9 a.m. in search of work. When there is none, they repair to the bar and worry. Antonio, 44, is divorced and living with his mother. He split with his wife partly because of constant fights about money and his lack of a job. He now weighs going to France, where he heard there is work picking fruit. His 22-year-old daughter is planning a move to the Canary Islands to work in the tourism industry. He said he doesn’t blame her.  “Young people are leaving this town,” he said. “There’s no hope, no jobs. Days are long. You wake up, it’s the crisis. You go to bed, it’s the crisis. It’s always the same around here.”

Greek PM says can't manage beyond November without next aid tranche - (www.reuters.com) Greek leader Antonis Samaras told a German paper in an interview published on Friday his country could not manage beyond November without the next tranche of international aid and suggested the ECB could help by easing the terms of its Greek debt holdings. "The key is liquidity. That is why the next credit tranche is so important for us," Samaras told the business daily Handelsblatt. Asked how long Greece could manage without it, he said: "Until the end of November. Then the cash box is empty."

Debt-laden companies cashing in on ECB pledge - (www.reuters.com) Heavily indebted euro zone firms are reaping the benefits of the European Central Bank's pledge to pull the region out of crisis, allowing them to borrow more cheaply and draw investors back into their shares. In the aftermath of the 2008 credit crunch, Portuguese power company EDP (EDP.LS) and Italian peer Terna (TRN.MI) were among the companies refinancing large debt burdens in the face of a complete collapse in faith in borrowers. That has changed, firstly with the sovereign debt crisis - which made banks and governments the main sources of lenders' distrust - and now with central banks' moves to head off the euro zone's turmoil and support economies with ultra-low official interest rates.




Thursday, October 18, 2012

Friday October 19 Housing and Economic stories



TOP STORIES:

How to erase a debt that isn't there - (www.nytimes.com) “We are canceling the remaining amount you owe Chase!” says a letter that JPMorgan Chase sent recently to thousands of home loan borrowers. “You are approved for a full principal forgiveness of your Home Equity Account,” says another, from Bank of America. Jackie Esposito, of Guilford, Conn., got a letter like that. But she wasn’t elated — because she doesn’t owe the money anymore. She and her husband filed for bankruptcy three years ago. The roughly $64,000 they owed Chase has been legally wiped out. What’s going on? Cast your mind back to February. Five of the nation’s big banks, including Chase and Bank of America, agreed to pay $25 billion to settle state and federal claims over questionable mortgage practices and promised to work harder to help borrowers who were in trouble. To prod the banks, the government said it would give them credits against the amounts they agreed to pay.So, to the ire of customers who couldn’t get banks to work with them before, banks are now forgiving debts that no longer exist.

Widening JPMorgan CIO Loss Could Be Next ‘Shock’ Event - (www.silverdoctors.com) The market seems to have completely forgotten the fact that JPM’s massive CIO positions have yet to be closed.  Unfortunately for Mr. Dimon, at least $90 billion in potential losses remain, and the strategy of slowing unwinding the positions will blow up in The Morgue’s face and exponentially exacerbate JPM’s losses with any further downturn in the economy. The JP Morgan (JPM) trading blunder could result in a $100 billion loss, a contagion of its massive portfolio, and even the wipeout of its entire asset base. Even worse, these extremely risky and potentially-illegal actions on behalf of the CIO office and the “London Whale” could be the unexpected “shock” that breaks the market, derails the Fed’s huge monetary stimulus, and sends us back into a global recession. There is one event that may ultimately solve the mystery of the global economy. This event would not only plunge the economy back into a deep recession and lose investors hundreds of billions of dollars, but it could bring about the collapse of some of the world’s largest financial institutions and even render central bank stimulus and QE completely ineffective and futile. This event is by no means a guarantee; its probability is even likely under 5 percent. But this event has all the necessary ingredients to culminate into a major panic. Together with slowing global economies and an extremely unstable financial system, this could be the next Lehman Brothers.

Financial Guru Max Keiser Calls Actor John Cusack A Financial Terrorist - (www.mfi-miami.com) - If you didn’t catch today’s Keiser Report on RT, Max Keiser and Stacy Herbert talk about my article last week about how John Cusack’s buddies over at Mortgage Resolution Partners (MRP) want to use eminent domain to seize performing mortgage contracts. Max and Stacy also showed the clip from the interview Max did with the Lois Lane of finance journalism, Teri Buhl back in July after her trip to San Bernadino to investigate MRP’s push to get San Bernadino to go along with this. (Max and Stacy talk about MFI-Miami at 9:05).  Max Keiser basically agrees with me, Teri Buhl and Felix Salmon that their eminent domain plan is an elaborate scam. MRP is using people like actor John Cusack and Arianna Huffington into misleading cities and foreclosure activists about MRP’s plan.  What MRP wants to do is not seize abandoned homes and homes already in foreclosure like they claim but to seize performing mortgage contracts where the homeowner only faces a negative equity position so MRP can sell the mortgage loans to FHA.  Although the homeowners are upside down, their loans are still contributing to the positive cash flow of the mortgage backed securities Trust that holds the note.

October Stock Plunge, Gold & The Fear Index - (www.kingworldnews.com)  Richard Russell continues: “We're now dealing with October, which historically is both a down month and a bottoming month. As for my position, I continue to believe that the primary trend of the market turned bearish in 2007, and that it is still bearish (although the bear trend has been suspended for awhile due to the Fed's actions). The VIX, often called the ‘fear index,’ is a forward looking metric (it's actually a measure of the implied volatility of the S&P index over the coming 30 days).  The VIX in recent months has been fluctuating in a very low area below 20 (see chart below).  Back in June the VIX jumped up to 26.66, then settled back to its low range. In past history, extended periods of very low volatility have been followed by major upward thrusts in the VIX.  The cycles in the VIX tend to be repetitive.  Following the recent bouts of extremely low volatility, a period of super-high volatility may be anticipated. 

IMF: recovery will take 'at least' a decade - (www.telegraph.co.uk) In an interview published today, Olivier Blanchard told Hungarian website Portfolio.hu: It's not yet a lost decade... But it will surely take at least a decade from the beginning of the crisis for the world economy to get back to decent shape. He also said that Germany would have to get over its fear of inflation if it is to help weaker eurozone countries recover. A somewhat higher inflation rate in Germany should simply be seen as a necessary and desirable, relative price adjustment (desirable even from the narrow point of view of Germany, as this real appreciation increases the real income of the German people). Given overall demand conditions and the ECB’s strong mandate to ensure price stability, this is not the beginning of hyperinflation...





Wednesday, October 17, 2012

Thursday October 18 Housing and Economic stories



TOP STORIES:

Exclusive: Euro zone considering bond insurance for Spain - sources - (www.reuters.com)  The euro zone is considering aiding Spain by providing insurance for investors who buy government bonds in a move designed to maintain Spanish access to capital markets and minimize the cost to European taxpayers, European sources said. One senior European source said the plan could cost about 50 billion euros ($64.5 billion) for a year. It would enable Spain to cover its full funding needs and trigger potentially unlimited European Central bank buying of short-term Spanish bonds in the secondary market.

Iranians Abandon Meat for Bread as Rial Drop Fires Protests - (www.bloomberg.com) Iran’s freefalling currency is turning meat into a luxury, sparking overnight price surges and spurring shoppers to stockpile goods.
“Most of my customers just look at products behind the window and pass,” said Behrouz Madani, 42, who owns a butcher shop in northwest Tehran. “I see them going to the next store, which is a bakery, to feed their families with bread.” Iran’s rial is in a tailspin, having lost more than half of its value against the dollar in street trading in the past two months as U.S. and European sanctions aimed at curbing the country’s nuclear program bite. Riot police yesterday fired tear gas and sealed off parts of downtown Tehran after the currency’s plunge triggered street protests. Hundreds of security forces patrolled the area today and most foreign currency shops were closed. The inflation rate, estimated by Parliament Speaker Ali Larijani at 29 percent last week, has accelerated to the point where the price of milk in Tehran rose 9 percent yesterday.

Eyes on Spain as ECB meets, bazooka ready - (www.reuters.com) European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said on Thursday everything was in place for the bank to buy the bonds of troubled euro zone countries such as Spain and that conditions linked to it need not be punitive. At the first ECB meeting since Draghi unveiled his controversial bond-purchase plan a month ago, markets were looking for signs of when Spain might make a formal aid request and trigger the program that some have hailed as a savior for the battered euro zone.

Romney's Strong Debate Showing Puts Europe on Edge - (www.cnbc.com) In Europe, where leaders and finance officials have worked closely with the Obama administration over the past 2½ years trying to resolve the euro area debt crisis, there was particular consternation at Romney's singling out of deficit-ridden Spain as a poorly administered economy. "Romney is making analogies that aren't based on reality," Foreign Affairs Minister Jose Manuel Garcia-Margallo told reporters after a meeting of his center-right party. Leading Spanish daily El Pais highlighted the fact that Spain was the only European country mentioned, and contrasted Romney's negative depiction of it with Obama's praise for Spain's renewable energy policies during the 2008 campaign.

Gas prices spiking in California - (money.cnn.com) Drivers in California could soon be paying nearly $5 a gallon for gasoline as prices in the wholesale market have surged this week. Wholesale gasoline prices in Los Angeles jumped Thursday to $4.35 a gallon, according to Tom Kloza, chief analyst at the Oil Price Information Service. The wholesale price is "by far the highest we've ever seen in that market," said Kloza. Once taxes and other costs are factored in, wholesale gas prices in California are at levels consistent with retail prices near $5 a gallon, he added. "California is ground zero for one of the most dramatic price spikes in a while," said Kloza.






Tuesday, October 16, 2012

Wednesday October 17 Housing and Economic stories



TOP STORIES:

US Postal Service to default on second $5B payment - (finance.yahoo.com) The U.S. Postal Service, on the brink of default on a second multibillion-dollar payment it can't afford to pay, is sounding a new cautionary note that having squeezed out all the cost savings within its power, the mail agency's viability now lies almost entirely with Congress. In an interview, Postmaster General Patrick Donahoe said the mail agency will be forced to miss the $5.6 billion payment due to the Treasury on Sunday, its second default in as many months. Congress has left Washington until after the November elections, without approving a postal fix. For more than a year, the Postal Service has been seeking legislation that would allow it to eliminate Saturday mail delivery and reduce its $5 billion annual payment for future retiree health benefits.

Spain's rising debt costs eat up austerity gains - (www.telegraph.co.uk)  Spain has pushed through €40bn of fresh austerity measures in the teeth of recession, despite violent protests across the country and separatist crises in Catalonia and the Basque region that threaten to break the country apart. Premier Mariano Rajoy has frozen public pay in 2013 for the third year in a row. The agriculture ministry and culture expenses will be cut by 30pc and the defence bureacracy by 15pc. It comes on top of a €62bn squeeze already in the pipeline. He brushed aside warnings that fiscal overkill – at a time when unemployment is already 25pc – could push the country into turmoil, saying he would listen only to the “silent majority” of responsible citizens. Bowing to pressure from Brussels, the government has agreed to an independent budget office and a clampdown on early retirement. Pensions will rise by 1pc, paid for by raiding the social security reserve fund. The closed professional guilds and old-boy networks dating back to the Franco era will, in theory, be shaken up. There will be a lottery tax.

Fed discloses banks’ emergency borrowing – (www.ft.com) The US Federal Reserve has started to disclose emergency borrowing by individual banks, highlighting the risk that they will stop using its facilities because of stigma. Banks including the Royal Bank of Canada, UBS and Mitsubishi UFJ all borrowed small amounts from the Fed at a penalty rate during the third quarter of 2010. Markets will study whether banks that used Fed loans suffer damage to their reputations. If they do, then bankers may be reluctant to borrow from the Fed for any reason in the future. The Fed, like other central banks, provides back up liquidity for banks through its discount window. If a bank is short of cash overnight, it can borrow from the Fed at a penalty interest rate, provided that it has good collateral.

Italian unions strike against PM Monti's spending cuts - (www.reuters.com)  Up to 30,000 members of two of Italy's biggest unions marched through Rome on Friday to protest against Prime Minister Mario Monti's cuts in public spending, forcing the closure of the Colosseum. Opposition to austerity policies aimed at steering the country out of its economic crisis is growing as the year-long recession shows no signs of letting up and unemployment continues to rise.

The US Fed is essentially admitting failure - (www.goldseek.com)  The recent decision by the US Federal Reserve to contaminate the financial body until it responds favorably was the last straw in my book. Witness a declaration of permanent QE and hyper monetary inflation of the most virulent strain, unsterilized. The USFed is essentially admitting failure. The signal serves as the loudest death knell for the USDollar among many in a sequence. On a similar parallel note, lighter and more humorous, one might be reminded of the pirate swash buckling style of yelling at the swabbies that the beatings will continue until morale improves. The QE bond monetization of USGovt debt has turned viral and entrenched. It is sold as stimulus, when in fact it acts like a giant wet blanket on the USEconomy. It is intended as stimulus to businesses, but the effect is felt on the financial speculation and on Asian direct business investment. 




Monday, October 15, 2012

Tuesday October 16 Housing and Economic stories



TOP STORIES:

Spanish deposits fall as crisis deepens - (www.ft.com) Capital flight from the Spanish banking sector continued in August, data released on Thursday showed, putting more pressure on the prime minister, Mariano Rajoy, as he unveils his crucial budget for the next year amid rising borrowing costs and growing public discontent with austerity. Private sector deposits fell more than 1 per cent to €1.49tn at the end of August from €1.51tn in the previous month, hitting their lowest point since April 2008, according to the European Central Bank. The rate of flight slowed slightly compared with July, however. As protesters descended on Spain’s parliament for a second night on Wednesday, Mr Rajoy called on Spaniards to ignore “short-term interests”. His government is also preparing to unveil a new reform programme and the results of a banking stress test.

Fed Virtually Funding the Entire US Deficit: Lindsey - (www.cnbc.com)  The latest round of extraordinary Federal Reserve stimulus is risky and leaves little room to maneuver should another crisis hit, economist Lawrence Lindsey told CNBC’s “Squawk Box” on Wednesday. Lindsey said that with the Fed purchasing at least $40 billion a month in mortgage debt through QE3, “they are buying the entire deficit.” (Read more: Fed Pulls Trigger, to Buy Mortgages in Effort to Lower Rates.) “I have no problem doing extraordinary things in extraordinary times,” said Lindsey, a former White House economic advisor under former president George W. Bush who now runs his own consulting firm. Lindsay said he agreed with the Fed’s first two rounds of quantitative easing. Now, with the economy now growing closer to its trend rate, “doing something that’s really out of the ordinary is risking things.”

Spain’s Boom-Era Building Gear Sold as Developers Cut Off - (www.bloomberg.com) Angel Fernandez used to travel to the Netherlands to buy equipment for Spanish homebuilderswhen they were powering Europe’s third-biggest construction market. Now he watches as buyers come to take diggers, excavators and trucks to countries where they won’t just gather dust. Standing in a sunburned field in Ocana, a 90-minute drive south of Madrid, 41-year-old Fernandez looks on as never-used construction equipment is sold at discounts of as much as 20 percent through Ritchie Bros. Auctioneers Inc. Business is brisk for the world’s largest industrial-equipment auctioneer, a sign that time has run out for Spanish builders that were propped up by banks for years after the machines fell silent. “My business is being made obsolete,” said Fernandez, who bids for equipment on behalf of Spanish construction companies. “When the crisis began in 2008, we all thought that it would be over in two or three years, but we got to 2011 and realized we were in worse shape.”

One-Fifth of Households Slammed by Student Debt - (www.cnbc.com) A record number of American households carry student loan debt, while the average outstanding loan balance is the highest it's ever been, according to a new report from the Pew Research Center. The Pew analysis found that about one out of five (19 percent) households, or around 22.3 million, were burdened with student debt in 2010. That figure is more than double the 9 percent it was in 1989, and it marks a big jump from 15 percent in 2007.

ECB’s Weidmann Says Banking Union Can’t Cover Bad Debts - (www.bloomberg.com)  European Central Bank Governing Council member Jens Weidmann said the proposed banking union can’t take responsibility for existing bad debts. “In order to keep liability and control in balance, only risks that have arisen after common supervision is established can be taken under joint liability,” Weidmann, who heads Germany’s Bundesbank, said at a speech in Berlin today. “The legacy burdens on bank balance sheets have to be underwritten by the countries under whose supervision they have arisen.” Weidmann’s comments come after finance chiefs from Germany, the Netherlands and Finland said this week that direct recapitalization of banks by the euro area’s permanent bailout fund should be a last resort and that legacy debts should remain the responsibility of national authorities. European leaders agreed in June that, as part of a prospective banking union, banks would qualify for direct aid once an ECB-led supranational supervisory mechanism has been established.






Sunday, October 14, 2012

Monday October 15 Housing and Economic stories



TOP STORIES:

CCSF's $138 mil albatross? - (www.sfgate.com) As the college teeters on the financial brink, it opens a spiffy 14-story campus in Chinatown. Ambitious buildings often debut at the most awkward possible time. The Chinatown/North Beach campus of City College of San Francisco is the latest case in point. The 14-story tower that now anchors Portsmouth Square had its ceremonial opening Friday as the 86,000-student system is threatened with the loss of accreditation because of managerial and financial problems. The first meeting held by trustees in a companion four-story building included a vote to bring in a state trustee to oversee operations. In this context, it is difficult not to view the $138 million campus as an albatross. But from the urban design perspective, or as a manifestation of San Francisco's cultural dynamics, look on it as something else: a smart addition to the landscape no matter what comes next.

Investors fear imminent tail-risk event - (www.ft.com) The world’s biggest investors fear a fresh market crisis will erupt in the next 12 months amid worries that troubles in the eurozone will hit global growth and cause disruption in the financial system similar to the collapse of Lehman Brothers. More than 70 per cent of investors warn that a so-called tail-risk event, an external shock that causes a market sell-off and potentially threatens the financial system, will happen in the next year, says State Street Global Advisors. State Street, the third biggest manager of money in the world, said 71 per cent of investors in a survey of 300 around the world, including the largest pension funds, asset managers and private banks, fear an imminent Lehman-like event.

Greek protest turns violent during general strike - (www.ap.com) Europe's fragile financial calm was shattered Wednesday as investors worried that violent anti-austerity protests in Greece and Spain's debt troubles showed that the continent still cannot contain its financial crisis. Police fired tear gas Wednesday at rioters hurling gasoline bombs and chunks of marble during Greece's largest anti-austerity demonstration in six months. The protests were part of a 24-hour general strike, the latest test for Greece's nearly four-month-old coalition government and the new spending cuts it plans to push through. The brief but intense clashes by several hundred rioters among the 60,000 people protesting in Athens came a day after anti-austerity protests rocked the Spanish capital. In Madrid, thousands of angry protesters again swarmed as close as they could get Wednesday night to Parliament, watched by a heavy contingent of riot police. There was no fresh violence, but the demonstrators cut off traffic on one of the city's major thoroughfares at the height of the evening commute.

ECB Bond Buying May Hinder Reforms, Weidmann Tells NZZ - (www.bloomberg.com) The European Central Bank’s bond purchasing program could hinder a recovery in the euro zone if it eases pressure on governments to implement reforms, German Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann said in an interview with Swiss newspaper Neue Zuercher Zeitung. Weidmann questioned whether bond-purchase programs are the appropriate mechanism for solving structural problems, such as the lack of competitiveness and loss of trust in an individual country’s fiscal policies, according to the interview. Weidmann was the only member of the ECB Governing Council to oppose the so-called Outright Monetary Transactions program.

Exclusive - IMF, EU clash over Greece's bailout prospects  - (www.reuters.com) Greece's international lenders are at loggerheads over how to solve Athens' debt crisis, threatening more trouble for the euro as the IMF demands European governments write off some of the Greek debt they hold. Officials from Greece and the "troika" of European Union, European Central Bank and International Monetary Fund have told Reuters that tensions among them have increased of late as the Washington-based Fund has played tough. It has been pushing to restructure debts Athens owes to public-sector foreign creditors. EU leaders prefer to give Greece more time to meet bailout goals. While strains between Greece and its would-be saviours have been evident, as significant are frictions among the lenders.







Thursday, October 11, 2012

Friday October 12 Housing and Economic stories



TOP STORIES:

A Lost Decade for Savers - (www.bloomberg.com) The 1990s were a lost decade for Japan. The 2000s delivered a lost decade to U.S. investors. Now, five years into the onset of the financial crisis, with stock and bond markets booming, housing resurgent, and even Detroit redeemed, it’s savers who find themselves in a lost decade. This runs counter to the lessons of the credit bubble. We were urged to spend less, save more, tell fewer lies on our mortgage applications. Problem is, the jumbo monetary response to that era’s excesses—0 percent interest rates, followed by trillions in quantitative easing and a vow to keep rates this low until at least 2015—is bent on getting people and companies spending and investing (and out of cash) at pretty much any cost.

Remember That Spanish Cop Who Got Dropkicked? This Crystal Clear Video Is Way More Intense - (www.businessinsider.com) Things getting crazy in Spain… This video of the Spanish protest is by far the most intense one yet.
It's a reverse angle of the video we posted yesterday of the protesters attacking a cop. And it's way more intense. Protesters attacking a cop starts at around 1:20.

Why Europe is looking like a mess (again) - (www.washingtonpost.com) Just a few days ago, Europe’s long-simmering financial crisis seemed to have reached a resolution, following demonstrations of resolve by all players involved to deploy whatever means necessary to heal the deep fissures among the 17 nations using the euro. Never mind. European stock markets tumbled Wednesday amid unrest on the streets of Madrid and Athens and new doubts about the path forward for the continent. The German stock market was down 2 percent, the French market was down 2.8 percent and the Spanish market fell a whopping 3.9 percent.

Chinese slowdown haunts premium carmakers at Paris show - (www.reuters.com) Luxury auto giants BMW, Audi and Mercedes have been enjoying robust demand in China for almost three years as they vie to be the world's biggest premium car manufacturer. That could be about to change. While carmakers will use this week's Paris auto show to display models such as Audi's updated $146,600 top-of-the-line R8 coupe and Porsche's $126,000 four-wheel drive 911, the fate of the vehicles will be decided thousands of miles away in China, where premium-car buyers are showing signs of saturation.

Spain's precarious future - (money.cnn.com) The nation, which is doing everything it can to avoid a bailout, will release its 2013 budget on Thursday. And Friday brings auditors' results of bank stress tests, which could give investors a better idea of just how deep Spain's banking troubles run. A bailout seemed inevitable a few months back, when Spain's borrowing costs were sitting at unsustainably high levels. But ever since the European Central Bank announced an intervention plan, those costs have come down sharply. Just two months ago, the 10-year yield was above 7.6%