KeNo's Housing and Economic Portal: Monday June 19 2017 Housing and Economic stories

Sunday, June 18, 2017

Monday June 19 2017 Housing and Economic stories

TOP STORIES:

Broadway's empty storefronts total almost 200, borough president says - (www.amny.com) Manhattan Borough President Gale Brewer announced Monday that her office tallied 188 vacant storefronts on the iconic thoroughfare, thanks to volunteers who helped survey storefronts along the avenue's entire span in Manhattan last month. ... Retail experts cited several factors hindering the industry: people purchasing items online rather than in brick-and-mortar shops, demographic shifts that have flooded areas with newcomers who eschew former mainstays, and a rental market in flux. "You're seeing the highest vacancy [rate] in Manhattan, at least, in history," said Scott Plasky, a retail specialist in Marcus & Millichap's Manhattan office. "They have opportunities to rent those spaces. There are tenants that want to be here: this is New York. But these guys either are unwilling or unable to lease at what the marketplace is telling them they're worth."

Albertson’s Reveals Supermarket Meltdown as Global Deep-Discounters Promise Price War in Stagnating US Market - (www.zerohedge.com) Aldi’s $5 billion bet at a brutal time. Today, Albertson’s explained in an amended S-4 filing for a debt exchange offering just how tough things have gotten for traditional supermarket chains. As is so often the case, there is a private equity angle to it. Albertson’s was acquired in a 2005 LBO by a group of PE firms led by Cerberus. In January 2015, it acquired Safeway to eliminate some competition. It then wanted to sell its shares to the public. But in October 2015, as brick-and-mortar retail began to melt down, it scrapped its IPO. The filing’s most revealing data are same-store sales on a quarterly basis through Q4, 2016, comparing year-over-year sales growth at stores that have been open in the current and prior year. I added the red line to show the trend since Q3 2015:

Obamacare Death Spiral: First 2018 Coverage Map Reveals At Least 47 Counties With No Coverage - (www.zerohedge.com) "This is yet another failing report card for the Exchanges. The American people have fewer insurance choices and in some counties no choice at all. CMS is working with state departments of insurance and issuers to find ways to provide relief and help restore access to healthcare plans, but our actions are by no means a long-term solution to the problems we’re seeing with the Insurance Exchanges." Earlier today the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) released the first projected county-by-county map of Obamacare coverage for the 2018 plan year which depicts at least 47 counties, with 35,000 active Obamacare exchange participants, that will have no health insurance options next year. Meanwhile, another 2.4 million people are expected to have only 1 option for coverage. Per CMS: The Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) is releasing a county-level map of 2018 projected Health Insurance Exchanges participation based on the known issuer participation public announcements through June 9, 2017. This map shows that insurance options on the Exchanges continue to disappear. Plan options are down from last year and, in some areas, Americans will have no coverage options on the Exchanges, based on the current data.

US Oil Production Makes Waves, Swamping OPEC - (www.mauldineconomics.com) It's not just the US production numbers that are making waves: It's the spike in US crude oil exports. The US exported 830,000 barrels of crude per day in March, a whopping 64.2% increase year over year. In February, it exported 1.1 million barrels per day, a nearly 200% increase year over year...[per the WSJ,] the February numbers are closer to the new norm, as it expects the US to export, on average, roughly 1 million barrels per day in 2017. This is a huge challenge for major oil producers, especially Saudi Arabia and Russia. In December 2016, OPEC and its oil-producing partners agreed to cut production by about 1.8 million barrels per day, or roughly 1.5% of global crude production at the time...

Stockman Fears Fiscal Bloodbath As "Mother Of All Debt Ceiling Crises" Looms – (www.zerohedge.com) "Washington is heading for the unthinkable... And unlike the saves which were put together at the 11th hour in August 2011 and October 2015 by President Obama and Speaker Boehner, this time there will be absolute legislative paralysis." As my colleague Lee Adler has pointed out, Treasury tax collections have slowed to a crawl. Overall collections are barely even with prior year, and even withholding payments are now coming in at barely 2% on a year/year basis. That is far below the built-in spending growth rate of about 4% — and says nothing to the big increases for defense, law enforcement, border control and infrastructure being sought be the Trump White House. The four week moving average of withholding collections — about as accurate a real time measure of the US economy as exists — is running below the average wage rate gain of about 2.6% per annum. That means real wage growth is turning negative — not accelerating like the “escape velocity” narrative being peddled by Wall Street.

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