Monday, May 20, 2013

Tuesday May 21 Housing and Economic stories


TOP STORIES:

In Europe, Growing Concern Slovenia IsNext to Need Bailout - (www.nytimes.com) Only a few years ago, Bine Kordez was feted as Slovenia’s star entrepreneur. After transforming a home-improvement chain, Merkur, into a regional giant, he drew on easy credit from state-run banks to help orchestrate a €400 million management buyout of the company, the largest in the country’s history. The rewards of success included an imposing mountainside retreat and frequent mention of his name as a possible future finance minister of this small, idyllic Alpine country. Now, though, Mr. Kordez stands convicted of forgery and abuse of office for financial dealings as Merkur struggled under a mountain of debt. “My mistake and the mistake of the banks was to vastly underestimate the risk,” Mr. Kordez, 56, said in a recent interview at his home near the picturesque town of Bled, with a view of Slovenia’s highest peak. He awaits a decision later this month on an appeal of his conviction, which could send him to prison for five years.

Bankers whisper: Spain's bailout bill could rise - (www.reuters.com) Spain's bill to bail out its banks may yet rise, some bankers and analysts fear, as a worsening economy hampers the government's early attempts to sell off nationalized lenders and threatens the "bad bank" housing their rotten property deals. Spanish banks say the worst is behind them after steep losses last year and they are now recovering - a view broadly shared by authorities such as the European Commission, backer of a 41 billion euro ($54 billion) rescue of ailing lenders. But while Madrid is on schedule with demanded industry reforms and banks are better protected against losses from a sunken real estate market, a growing number of bankers argue in private that more state funds may still be needed to help sell rescued lenders and keep "bad bank" Sareb ticking over. Sareb was used to clean the balance sheets of state-rescued banks by taking on 50.7 billion euros worth of foreclosed properties and troubled loans to real estate developers.

[ Tett] The cost of hand-to-mouth living - (www.ft.com) “We see a pronounced difference between how people are shopping today and before the recession,” the executive explained. “Consumers are living pay check by pay check, and they tend to spend accordingly. Then you have 50 million people on food stamps and that has cycles too. So for our business it has become critical to understand the cycle – when pay [and benefit] checks are arriving.” Sadly, it does not yet seem possible for outsiders (or journalists) to crunch the numbers across the entire economy. Large companies are very secretive about their big-data projects (this particular company, which produces many of America’s best-loved snacks, would not let me reveal its name). And though economists monitor macro trends in retail spending, they have not traditionally analysed micro spending swings.

Cheap money bankrolls Wall Street's bet on housing - (www.reuters.com) Michael Marchillo, a plumber, has been trying and failing for months to buy a bigger home for his family here in Sin City. He was pre-qualified by a bank for a $130,000 mortgage, which a year ago would have landed a typical three-bedroom home in the area. No more. Now, the 36-year-old says, it's hard to compete with "greedy investors" who come to the table flush with cash for quick deals. Marchillo is on to something. The once-beleaguered Las Vegas housing market has been on fire since investment firms led by Blackstone Group LP, Colony Capital and American Homes 4 Rent began buying homes here some eight months ago, backed by $8 billion in investor cash to spend nationally. These big investors and a handful of others have bought at least 55,000 single-family homes across the U.S. in the past year. In the Vegas area alone, they have accounted for at least 10 percent of the homes sold since January 2012, according to a Reuters analysis of housing transactions.

Developer sentenced for $6.9 million investment fraud - (www.centralvalleybusinesstimes.com) Sacramento-area real estate developer David Romo, 42, of Folsom, is being sent to federal prison for ten years for mail fraud related to a real estate investment scheme that defrauded investors of more than $6.9 million. According to U.S. Attorney Benjamin Wagner, Mr. Romo ran a sophisticated real-estate investment scheme involving numerous investments that obtained millions of dollars through a series of clever misrepresentations to homeowners and manipulations of the real-estate purchase process. Mr. Romo, using his companies Sycamore Ventures LLC, Smarie Investments LLC, and Groupo Immobiliare LLC, solicited individuals to fund various real estate developments, court records show. But rather than using the investor money for the intended purpose, Mr. Romo diverted the money to his own personal use and to pay unrelated, prior business expenses, Mr. Wagner says.





Sunday, May 19, 2013

Monday May 20 Housing and Economic stories


TOP STORIES:

Negative rates as a precursor to the death of banking - (www.ft.com) The euro pared gains while German Bund futures edged up on Friday after European Central Bank policymaker Ewald Nowotny said the central bank was open-minded about taking deposit rates into negative territory. Nowotny said he was “astonished” by the market’s reaction to his comments earlier in the day, when he said negative deposit rates were not relevant in the near term. That’s all a rather odd follow-up to Draghi’s comment during Thursday’s ECB press conference that he had an “open mind” about cutting the deposit rate into negative territory. The euro dropped on Draghi’s pronouncement recovered on Nowotny’s suggestion that “”markets have over-interpreted the discussion yesterday” and sagged a bit when he said he hadn’t said what we thought he said about Draghi not having said what we thought he said… or something.

EU Lowers Forecast as Euro Area Heads For Two-Year Slump - (www.bloomberg.com) The euro-area economy will shrink more than previously estimated in 2013 as part of a two-year slump that has pushed up unemployment to a record, according to the European Commission. Gross domestic product in the 17-nation currency bloc will fall 0.4 percent this year, compared with a February prediction of 0.3 percent, the commission said in a report issued in Brussels today. This follows a 0.6 percent contraction in 2012 and shows the region headed for its first ever back-to-back years of falling output. France, now projected to shrink 0.1 percent instead of growing by the same amount, joined seven other euro-area economies expected to contract this year. Growth across the currency bloc will return too slowly to reduce unemployment, as the euro area remains dependent on exports to offset the impact of the sovereign debt crisis and banking woes, the European Union said.

ECB's Nowotny: Markets 'Clearly' Over-Interpreted Talk of Negative Rates - (www.cnbc.com) European Central Bank Governing Council Member Ewald Nowotny told CNBC on Friday that the markets over-interpreted ECB President Mario Draghi's comments on negative deposit rates at Thursday's press conference. "Well I think the markets over-interpreted this point. Of course, there is always some kind of technical discussion about it but there is no specific plan in that direction," Nowotny said in Bratislava. "I personally think this is something where one really has to analyze very carefully the effects, side effects, psychological effects so this is not something that is of relevance in the immediate future." The euro jumped against the dollar after Nowotny's comments, rising to a session high of 1.3107.

Too-Big-to-Fail Danish Banks Seek Bailout Text in Sifi Law - (www.bloomberg.com) Denmark’s biggest banks want the state to clarify its readiness to bail them out. The six lenders identified by a government committee as systemically important for the Danish economy say they need to be shielded from the country’s bail-in legislation for their too-big-to-fail designation to be meaningful. Danske Bank A/S, Denmark’s biggest lender, argues the additional capital costs they face should be matched by explicit guarantees of state support, just like in neighboring Sweden. “We are very concerned about the fact that the legal wording is different to the extent that our rating is suffering,” Danske Chief Financial Officer Henrik Ramlau-Hansen said yesterday in an interview.

A good housing market might lead to a new great recession - (www.washingtontimes.com) Two sectors of the economy seem to be in particularly good shape right now. The first, of course, is the stock market, which is climbing to phenomenal highs. The second is the housing market. Although it has not yet returned to the pre-Great Recession-era, sales are up and new houses are being constructed at a speedy clip. This should raise a few red flags. The wealthy are the ones primarily benefitting from the stock craze. Middle and working class folks seldom have extra money to spend on risky investments, even if these might yield fantastic returns.  Members of the working classes, however, were the lion’s share of house buyers over the last decade. After the recession came along, they were the hardest hit. Considering that wages have decreased along with job opportunities, thus breaking the chain of socioeconomic mobility, the upswing in real estate becomes almost unexplainable.






Thursday, May 16, 2013

Friday May 17 Housing and Economic stories


TOP STORIES:

Struggling factories underline fragility of world growth - (www.reuters.com) Manufacturing across the world stumbled last month, underlining the fragility of the global economy and building the case for more action from leading central banks. Gloomy purchasing managers indexes - surveys of factory activity that correlate strongly with economic activity - added to a string of other economic data that has already soured optimism that a budding pickup in the world economy will flower. Over the past two days, manufacturing indexes for the United States, euro zone - including powerhouse Germany - and China have all declined. Britain's improved but was still signaling contraction. "There is not a great amount of positive news out there. Globally, we do see a weaker second quarter - there are no arguments about that," said Victoria Clarke, economist at Investec.

Americans are increasingly foolish with debt - (www.ochousingnews.com) After 30 years of falling interest rates, Americans have become addicted to cheap credit and personal Ponzi schemes. People have learned they can take on large debts, consolidate them at lower and lower interest rates, and service that debt with a portion of their income. It’s a bit like learning to live with a lamprey slowly sucking your financial juices. Often it’s not enough to kill, so it’s a parasite people learn to live with. Oftentimes when people get in trouble with debt, they stop using it. As Jesus would say, “sin no more.” Through falling interest rates, loan consolidations, and other methods of “working with borrowers,” lenders have learned out not to kill their hosts. Lenders have intentionally fostered moral hazard by teaching people to live with their parasites rather than learning how to get rid of them.

ECB Cuts Key Interest Rate to Record Low as Recession Lingers - (www.bloomberg.com) Policy makers meeting in Bratislava today lowered the main refinancing rate to 0.5 percent from 0.75 percent, a move predicted by 45 of 70 economists in a Bloomberg News survey. The ECB kept the deposit rate at zero and reduced the marginal lending rate to 1 percent from 1.5 percent to preserve a symmetrical rate corridor. President Mario Draghi holds a press conference in the Slovakian capital at 2:30 p.m. Since Draghi said last month that he stood ready to act ifEurope’s economic outlook worsened, inflation plunged, economic confidence slumped and unemployment rose. Today’s cut, the first since July last year, takes the ECB closer to exhausting its conventional policy tools, raising the prospect of a negative deposit rate or new non-standard measures.
The rate cut “will not have any significant impact on short-term interbank rates,” said Nick Kounis, head of macro research atABN Amro in Amsterdam. However, it will “reduce funding costs for the mainly peripheral banks that use the ECB’s lending facilities, so in that sense it is a targeted move.”

Big Tobacco Is Scrambling To Get A Piece Of The Booming E-Cigarette Business – (www.businessinsider.com) Yesterday, we showcased the 10 technologies Citi says are going to "disrupt" the world. In other words, these are things that will dramatically alter how their respective industries operate. There was one technology you could put in your mouth: e-cigarettes. What are e-cigarettes? They're basically thin pipes of vaporized, flavored nicotine. When you take a drag, a pressure-activated switch turns on a miniature heater that emits fake smoke. They're said to be less addictive than regular smokes, and more importantly, cheaper.

U.S. Homeownership Rate Lowest Since 1995 - (www.bloomberg.com) The U.S. homeownership rate fell to the lowest in almost 18 years, reflecting rising demand for rentals and investor purchases in the housing market. The share of Americans who own their homes was 65 percent in the first quarter, down from 65.4 percent a year earlier and the lowest level since the third quarter of 1995, the Census Bureau reported today. The vacancy rate for rented homes dropped to 8.6 percent from 8.8 percent a year earlier, while vacancies for owner-occupied houses fell to 2.1 percent from 2.2 percent. Investors are buying single-family homes and renting them out to capitalize on demand among families unable to qualify for a mortgage. Their purchases, many made with cash, are helping to support the housing recovery and pushing up prices. Home values in 20 cities increased 9.3 percent in February from a year earlier, the most since May 2006, according to the S&P/Case- Shiller (SPCS20Y%) index released today.





Wednesday, May 15, 2013

Thursday May 16 Housing and Economic stories


TOP STORIES:

Owning the Empire State Building is difficult - (www.nytimes.com) On the day it opened in 1931, the Empire State Building carved out a special place on the New York skyline, but it has also been at the center of a succession of battles for control by equally larger-than-life figures, including Donald J. Trump and Leona Helmsley. Now, the 102-story tower is the prize in yet another epic battle, which will play out in court starting on Monday. On one side are the New York real estate barons Peter L. Malkin and his son Anthony E. Malkin, who control the landmark tower but are minority owners. They are within a whisker of landing the deal of a lifetime, valued at $5.2 billion, that would offer to the public shares in 19 properties in the New York area that they oversee, including the crown jewel, the Empire State Building. The offering would catapult the Malkin family into the elite of Manhattan real estate, valuing their stake at an estimated $730 million and installing Anthony Malkin as chairman of a major new company, Empire State Realty Trust. But standing in their way is an eclectic group of dissenters led by the California businessman Richard Edelman and Andrew S. Penson, a speculative investor who owns Grand Central Terminal. They argue that the deal may harm the value of the investors’ shares and expose them to tax liabilities and the vagaries of the stock market, all while enriching the Malkins.

Tsarnaev family received $100G in benefits - (www.bostonherald.com) Yes, taxpayer-funding (Massachusetts and our Federal Government) gave Tsarnaev and family over $100K+ in food stamps (SNAP), Section 8 housing and welfare payments to help fund a terrorist attack on our own country. The Tsarnaev family, including the suspected terrorists and their parents, benefited from more than $100,000 in taxpayer-funded assistance — a bonanza ranging from cash and food stamps to Section 8 housing from 2002 to 2012, the Herald has learned. “The breadth of the benefits the family was receiving was stunning,” said a person with knowledge of documents handed over to a legislative committee today. The state has handed over more than 500 documents to the 11-member House Post Audit and Oversight Committee, which today met for the first time and plans to call in officials from the Department of Transitional Assistance to testify. “I can assure members of the public that this committee will actively review every single piece of information we can find because clearly the public has a substantial right to know what benefits, if any, this family or individuals accused of some horrific crimes were receiving,” said state Rep. David Linsky (D-Natick), the committee’s chairman.

Cyprus bailout scrapes through island's parliament - (www.reuters.com) Cyprus's parliament approved an EU bailout on Tuesday which will force it to wind down its second-largest bank and impose heavy losses on uninsured depositors at another, conditions that have intensified calls from islanders to exit the euro. With a razor-thin majority of just two votes, lawmakers approved terms accompanying 10 billion euros ($13.18 billion)in aid from the European Union and the International Monetary Fund (IMF). In a show of hands, 29 lawmakers from the three parties in the center-right government approved the motion, with 27 voting against. Government officials had warned the island would fall into chaotic default, unable to pay salaries or pensions, as early as next month without emergency funding.

Denmark Exhausts Last Stimulus Avenues as Housing Losses Persist - (www.bloomberg.com) Denmark’s government says it has exhausted all avenues for adding stimulus as the economy shows signs of sinking into its third recession since the global financial crisis started. “We’ve used whatever leeway there is,” Economy Minister Margrethe Vestager said in a telephone interview from Copenhagen late yesterday. “There’s no more space to stimulate the Danish economy.” Denmark’s $300 billion economy probably contracted last quarter, after shrinking 0.7 percent in the three months through December, according to Danske Bank (DANSKE) A/S and Svenska Handelsbanken AB. That would mark the nation’s third recession in less than four years, singling Denmark out as the Scandinavian nation hardest hit by the global financial crisis. The country has yet to surface from the fallout of a burst housing bubble that’s sent property prices plunging more than 20 percent since 2007. The average sales price for a single-family home fell 5.9 percent in January from a month earlier, the statistics office said April 5.

Cash for Doomed Crops Means U.S. Farmers Avoid Disaster Costs - (www.bloomberg.com) When dry weather destroyed Leonard McKissick’s soybeans last year, U.S. government-backed insurance paid him $40,000, the bulk of his loss. Across the Arkansas Delta this spring, farmers such as McKissick are sowing fields that suffered the worst drought in more than half a century. Even though crops may fail again, landowners are shielded by taxpayers from the full burden of their bad bets. Drought helped drive the cost of crop insurance to a record $17.2 billion, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said April 29. The government covers more than 60 percent of payouts, spending about seven times more than a $1.4 billion program that helps farmers adapt to climate change. The subsidies encouraging farmers to ignore addressing extreme weather are harder to justify when automatic budget cuts remove 5 percent from most U.S. programs and lawmakers prepare to craft a new five-year farm law. “We have given farmers incentives to take on more risk rather than give them an incentive to create a permanent solution,” said Vincent Smith, a professor of agricultural economics at Montana State University in Bozeman. “You want to move toward programs that allow them to alleviate problems before the fact.”

Gross Says Central-Bank Policies Impose ’Haircuts’ on Investors - (www.bloomberg.com) Pacific Investment Management Co.’s Bill Gross, manager of the world’s biggest bond fund, said global central bank debt purchase programs and almost-zero interest rates are bolstering economic growth and asset prices at a cost to savers and investors. “It has been the objective of the Fed over the past few years to make even more innovative forms of money by supporting stock and bond prices at a cost at an ever ascending scale,” Gross wrote in his monthly investment outlook posted on Newport Beach, California-based Pimco’s website today. “Current policies come with cost, even as they magically float asset prices higher. Negative real interest rates, inflation, currency devaluation, capital controls and outright default” are among the costs, or ”haircuts” from global central banks’ unprecedented monetary stimulus. The Fed’s efforts to keep long-term interest rates low and holding its target rate at almost zero for more than four years has caused savers to suffer in what Gross has dubbed in the past “financial repression,” given low returns on bank deposits and fixed-income securities. Central-bank efforts to reflate their economies after the financial crisis have devalued the purchasing power of currencies and investment portfolios, Gross said.




Tuesday, May 14, 2013

Wednesday May 15 Housing and Economic stories


TOP STORIES:

Insight: Why did Cypriot banks keep buying Greek bonds? - (www.reuters.com) One day last October, a memory stick containing special software for deleting data was placed into a desktop computer at Bank of Cyprus. Within minutes, 28,000 files were erased, according to investigators who had wanted to copy the data for an official report into the collapse of the Cypriot banking system. The deleted files included emails sent and received in a crucial period in late 2009 and early 2010 when Bank of Cyprus, the biggest lender on the island, spent billions of euros buying Greek bonds - at a time when international banks were cutting exposure to the heavily indebted Athens government. Those Greek bonds lost most of their value in last year's EU-sanctioned bailout, playing a key role in plunging Cyprus into an economic maelstrom. When banks turned to Cyprus's own cash-strapped government for help in plugging holes in their balance sheets, Nicosia too needed an international rescue. Now people in the small euro zone republic, who have lost money and face years of grim austerity, want to know who decided to plough their savings into the doomed public accounts of their bigger neighbor, and why. But answers are proving elusive, not helped by the mysterious wiping of data at Bank of Cyprus.

Italy Unemployment Rate Remains Close to 20-Year-High Amid Slump - (www.bloomberg.com) Italy’s unemployment rate remained near a 20-year high in March as companies refrained from hiring amid political gridlock and the longest economic recession in two decades. Joblessness was unchanged at 11.5 percent after the February reading was revised down from an initial 11.7 percent, the Rome-based national statistics office Istat said in a preliminary report today. The March rate was lower than the 11.7 percent median of six estimates in a Bloomberg News survey. Unemployment remained above 10 percent for a 14th month. The euro region’s third-biggest economy will shrink 1.8 percent this year amid rising unemployment and low consumer and investor confidence, Mooody’s Investors Service forecast April 26. That compares with the government’s estimate for a 1.3 percent contraction. The Rome-based Treasury also projected that joblessness (ITMUURS) will rise to 11.6 percent from 10.7 percent at the end of 2012. Italy’s newly appointed Prime Minister Enrico Letta told Italian lawmakers that employment will be the “top priority” of his government.

Spain sinks deeper into recession in first quarter - (www.reuters.com)  Spain fell deeper into recession in the first three months of the year, the seventh straight quarter it has seen its economy shrink, data showed on Tuesday. Rising exports and weaker imports, reported separately, provided some relief by cutting the trade deficit. The data showing further contraction will add to a Europe-wide debate about whether countries should tone down austerity programs intended to cut debt in favor of more growth-focused policies, particularly given concern about rising unemployment. Euro zone member Spain's jobless rate is 27.2 percent. The National Statistics Institute said Spain's gross domestic product contracted - on a preliminary reading - 0.5 percent in the first quarter from the last three months of 2012, mainly because of sliding domestic demand.

Perth Mint Works Through Weekend as Gold Demand Surges on Price - (www.bloomberg.com) Australia’s Perth Mint, which refines nearly all of the nation’s bullion, said that demand has jumped to the highest level in five years after prices plunged, with the factory kept open through the weekend to meet orders. There’s been strong interest, including from the U.S., with buyers speculating that the metal will rebound from the decline, Ron Currie, sales and marketing director, said in a phone interview from Perth. Bullion plunged 14 percent in the two sessions to April 15, the most since 1983, spurring buyers to boost physical holdings. Billionaire John Paulson, the biggest investor in the largest exchange-traded product backed by bullion, reiterated his bullish view on prices. Coin sales by the U.S. Mint are set for the highest month since December 2009, while premiums to secure supplies in India rose to five times the level before the slump.

Large down payments provide stability to the housing market - (www.ochousingnews.com) Down payments are the bedrock of the housing market. Large down payments preserve home ownership, reduce volatility in the market, and reduce the risk to our financial system. The only people who oppose them are realtors and originate-to-sell lenders who see down payments as an impediment to profits and left-wing housing advocates who see down payments as a barrier to putting unqualified borrowers into houses. Down payments preserve home ownership because people who’ve put down large down payments rarely default. In purely economic's terms, people shouldn’t consider sunk costs like down payments in their decision making. However, homeowners do. People simply don’t walk away from properties where they’ve put a lot down, even if they’re deeply underwater. The decision is more emotional than logical, but coupled with the emotional desire to “own” these two forces prevent most people from strategic default even when that option is the best available to them.






Monday, May 13, 2013

Tuesday May 14 Housing and Economic stories


TOP STORIES:

Analysis: Italy's politics turned upside down by election aftermath - (www.reuters.com) Five months ago, Silvio Berlusconi was in steep decline and his party was in shambles. His center-left enemies looked triumphant and sat on a 15-point opinion poll lead. Today that situation has turned 180 degrees. The center-left is devastated by divisions and the 76-year-old media tycoon has an opinion poll lead ranging from five to eight points. The extraordinary upset is the result of powerful aftershocks from an electoral earthquake in February when the populist 5-Star Movement swept up a huge protest vote against Italy's politicians and grabbed an unprecedented 25 percent to become the third force in parliament. Now that the dust is starting to settle with the inauguration of a new broad-based coalition government led by center-left politician Enrico Letta, it is possible to see more clearly the winners and losers from one of the most turbulent periods in recent Italian political history. One of the winners is Berlusconi. He has gone from a pale, indecisive figure last autumn to a position of strong influence over Letta's government, helped greatly by the implosion of the center-left and his own astonishing resurgence since he was forced from power in November 2011 as Italy faced a major financial meltdown.

Why Occupy Wall Street Failed - (www.ft.com) When the anti-consumerist magazine Adbusters issued a call to “Occupy Wall Street” (OWS) in 2011, the response took everyone by surprise – including the Occupiers themselves. Anti-capitalist activists and their sympathisers flooded the streets, starting in Zuccotti Park in Manhattan and spreading quickly to St Paul's Cathedral in London and cities across the Anglo-American world. Largely supported by the public, they also captured significant media attention. In retrospect, the real surprise is that all this did not happen sooner. Anger with banks and the mess they had caused had been boiling for three years. Recall, for example, the (thwarted) attempt by the US House of Representatives – not normally an anti-Wall Street body – to impose a 90 per cent tax rate on bonuses by bailed-out financial companies. That the protests proved shortlived is explained in part by the relative speed with which the Occupy encampments were cleared by shamefully thin-skinned authorities. A more profound reason was yet another surprising fact about the Occupy movement: while it suddenly and unexpectedly held the establishment’s attention, it chose to be silent.

Mortgage re-defaults increasing at an 'alarming rate' - (www.consumeraffairs.com) Now there is more distressing news. Even many of those homeowners who successfully navigated the obstacles to a mortgage modification are in trouble. At a time when the housing market is generally accepted to be in a robust recovery, the Special Inspector General for the Troubled Asset Relief Program (SIGTARP) has issued a warning. “SIGTARP is concerned that the number of homeowners who have re-defaulted on permanent mortgage modification under TARP’s signature housing support program, HAMP, is increasing at an alarming rate,” the Inspector General said in a new report. After four years only 862,279 remain in a HAMP permanent modification. As of March 31, 2013, more than 312,000 homeowners have re-defaulted on their HAMP permanent modification, according to the report. While the headlines proclaim a housing recovery, some homeowners are still jumping through modification hoops. “We had a loan modification in place with Chase, then they sold it to Ocwen and several months later, the amount went up by $400,” Vera, of Chicago, wrote in a Consumer Affairs post. “We are attempting to be remodified and everything we send to them is not legible or they never get it. They set up appointments and when you hang up, they say everything is fine, we got all the info.

Southern Europe's Recession Threatens to Spread North - (www.cnbc.com) No company symbolizes German industrial might like Daimler, the giant maker of Mercedes-Benz autos and trucks. So when the company said this week that it, too, had finally been caught in the downdraft of the European economic crisis, it was an ominous sign for all of the Continent, if not the whole world. German exporters like Daimler have been bastions of stability on a continent burdened with shaky banks, dysfunctional governments and legions of unemployed youth — not to mention the worst auto industry slump in two decades. But Daimler's glum forecast for 2013 was the latest evidence that Germany, and other relatively healthy countries like Austria and Finland, risk falling into the recession that has long afflicted their southern neighbors. The slowdown in Germany was foreshadowed by months of declining industrial output, said Carl B. Weinberg, chief economist of High Frequency Economics in Valhalla, N.Y. "The E.U. has made Europe a much more cohesive economy, which is good when things are going up," he said. "But when things are going down the multiplier is very strong. An outgoing tide lowers all ships."

Italy's Letta government begins life in climate of crisis - (www.reuters.com) Letta was backed by his own centre-left Democratic Party (PD), Silvio Berlusconi's centre-right People of Freedom (PDL) party as well as centrists led by former prime minister Mario Monti. The government will be fully empowered after a second vote in the Senate on Tuesday. However, the first opinion poll published since his cabinet was announced, conducted by the EMG agency, gave Letta an approval rating of just 41 percent, showing that many Italians are unconvinced by the coalition of former adversaries. Just 13 percent of Italians said they wanted Letta as prime minister, suggesting he may struggle to obtain the honeymoon period usually enjoyed by new governments. Monti began his government with approval ratings as high as 70 percent. "We will die of fiscal consolidation alone, growth policies cannot wait any longer," Letta said in his speech to the Chamber of Deputies, describing the country's economic situation as still "serious" after more than a decade of stagnation.

Reinhart-Rogoff Rebuttal Says UMass Critics Politicized Debt - (www.bloomberg.com) Harvard University economists Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff have defended the technical aspects of a 2010 paper that’s been cited in the U.S. and Europe to bolster arguments to drive down budget deficits, saying their critics have “politicized the issue.” “Our critics seem to suggest that they can ignore everything else we have done because we are somehow going around placing great emphasis on one outlier estimate for growth,” Reinhart and Rogoff wrote in a New York Times Op-Ed piece today. “This is wrong. We have never used anything but the conservative median estimate in our public discussions.” The economists acknowledged on April 17 that they had inadvertently left some data out of their calculations in the study, in response to a paper released on April 15 by three researchers from the University of Massachusetts at Amherst. Still, the error didn’t change the basic findings of their research, they said.



Sunday, May 12, 2013

Monday May 13 Housing and Economic stories


TOP STORIES:

Letta Vows to Suspend Italian Property Tax to Bolster Economy - (www.bloomberg.com) Italian Prime Minister Enrico Letta said his plans to cut taxes for homeowners, consumers and companies will keep the budget deficit within European rules. Letta, 46, outlined his priorities in a speech today in the lower house of Parliament in Rome, one day after being sworn in to replace Mario Monti. He then won a confidence vote in the Chamber of Deputies, and his government will be officially installed after another vote tomorrow in the Senate. While Letta didn’t give full details about financing the stimulus, he said Italy will have options once the European Union ends its budget review, known as the excessive-deficit procedure.

Moody's says Italy may still eventually need bailout- (www.reuters.com) Rating agency Moody's believes Italy may still eventually need to seek a bailout despite forming a new government and avoiding immediate crisis. "We cannot yet rule out Italy will end up asking for help to the European Central Bank and the European Stability Mechanism," Dietmar Hornung, senior credit officer at Moody's, was cited as saying in Monday's told La Repubblica. Prime Minister Enrico Letta's new Italian government was sworn in on Sunday and the premier will seek the backing of parliament in a confidence vote at 3 p.m. on Monday. Letta is expected to have the backing of his own center-left Democratic Party and former prime minister Silvio Berlusconi's center-right People of Freedom party, to break a stalemate that lasted around two months after February's vote.

Europe's healthier carmakers flinch as market slumps - (www.reuters.com) Europe's deepening car market slump is starting to strain its most prosperous automakers as they respond to profit-crushing discounts imposed by loss-making rivals in a desperate battle for customers. The region's car sales are heading for their sixth straight yearly decline to a two-decade low and industry forecasters now say the crisis could drag on for years. German manufacturers with some of the industry's strongest brands have held up better than mass-market competitors such as France's loss-making Peugeot or Italy's Fiat.

Analysis: Cheap debt may prove costly for emerging market firms and families - (www.reuters.com) Korean homebuyers and Chinese small firms, Brazilian motorists and Turkish banks are now among the main culprits in running up emerging market debt, replacing governments who have largely put their books in order. Investors' eagerness to lend at record low interest rates in a world awash with cheap money is seducing companies and households, and threatening to counter a decade of government efforts to lower debt ratios. The emerging sovereign debt that was so blighted by default in the past may well be on firmer ground. But the steady climb in private debt is alarming for those who have bought into emerging markets either as a low-debt alternative to the over-leveraged West or in the hope that a long history of debt default in developing countries has passed.

IMF flags risks of asset bubbles, middle income trap in Asia - (www.reuters.com) Asia needs to guard against asset bubbles and its emerging economies must improve government institutions and liberalize rigid labor and product markets if they wish to reach the level of developed countries, the International Monetary Fund said on Monday. "Emerging Asia is potentially susceptible to the 'middle-income trap,' a phenomenon whereby economies risk stagnation at middle-income levels and fail to graduate into the ranks of advanced economies," the IMF said in its latest Regional Economic Outlook for Asia and the Pacific.