Monday, December 21, 2015

Tuesday December 22 Housing and Economic stories


Miners' Rout Deepens, Defying Rally in Metals, Crude - (www.bloomberg.com) Rallies in gold and oil evaporated as the selloff in commodities resumed even as the dollar tumbled. U.S. stocks fluctuated as a potential merger that would be the biggest in the chemicals industry boosted large caps, while Apple Inc. paced declines among technology shares. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index erased earlier gains, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average clung to an advance after people familiar with the matter said talks between DuPont Co. and Dow Chemical Co. are in late stages. A rally in West Texas Intermediate reversed as crude failed to rebound from its lowest settlement since 2009. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index sank 0.6 percent.

The junk bond market's early warning signs are all flashing red for the global economy - (www.telegraph.co.uk) This high level of risk aversion makes the antennae of junk bond investors particularly sensitive to the danger signals swirling around the financial ether. And that’s particularly pertinent right now because multiple warning signs are flashing in the US high-yield market, which, true to form, is acting as an early warning mechanism for the global economy. The first red light on the dashboard appeared in July, when analysts at Bank of America Merrill Lynch pointed out the huge gap between high-yield spreads and equity volatility – a good proxy for the level of complacency among equity investors. On August 14 the gap reached its widest level since March 6, 2008 – less than a fortnight before the financial crisis kicked off in earnest. The equity market sell-off over the summer closed the chasm a bit but not completely. The question now: was this the quake or just a pre-tremor?

Brazil Supreme Court Halts Creation of Impeachment Committee - (www.bloomberg.com) Brazil’s Supreme Court suspended for a week a congressional committee that would recommend whether to continue impeachment proceedings against President Dilma Rousseff after the government was defeated in a secret vote to appoint members of that committee. Judge Luiz Edson Fachin, appointed by Rousseff to the top court earlier this year, issued the ruling just hours after Congress accepted the committee members appointed by the opposition on Tuesday evening. In a tumultuous session marred by physical scuffles between congressmen, pro-government lawmakers objected to the vote, saying it should have been public. The Brazilian real gained 0.7 percent while the benchmark Ibovespa stock index rose 1.6 percent at 10:35 a.m. in Sao Paulo as the creation of a committee filled with pro-impeachment lawmakers was seen as a defeat for the embattled president, who has been fighting for her political survival. Investors believe a solution to the impasse would be positive for the economy, which has stalled in part due to the political crisis.

Energy Sector’s Junk-Bond Pain Spreads - (online.wsj.com) Losses in the energy sector’s junk-bond market are spreading beyond oil-and-gas producers amid a prolonged slump in commodity prices, further rattling investors who are now preparing for a wave of defaults next year. Bonds from electric utilities including Dynegy Inc., AES Corp. andNRG Energy Inc. have declined in recent days, reflecting concerns that falling natural-gas prices will drag down electricity prices as well. A Dynegy bond is down 10.9​ cents on the dollar over the past week to 85.6 cents, an AES Corp. bond is down 4.8 cents to 85.3 cents and a bond from NRG Energy is down 8.9 cents to 84 cents, according to trading data from MarketAxess Holdings Inc. “Sentiment is awful,” said Henry Peabody, who helps oversee the $1 billion Eaton Vance Bond Fund. “We’re flirting with credit-crisis energy prices, and we’re probably flirting with credit-crisis bond prices to some degree in these sectors.”

Whispers Of Liquidation As Oil Trading "God" Loses 10% In November; Down 26% In 2015 - (www.zerohedge.com) ... with very close attention: the same person many had dubbed the oil trading "god", former Citi and Phibro trader, Andy Hall. Andy Hall's story has been closely documented here: about a year ago, we learned that as a result of the dramatic move lower in oil and other commodities, 113-year-old Phibro, where Hall worked, would shut down after it was unable to find a buyer. Since then things have gone from bad to worse for Hall, who suffered his second biggest monthly loss ever in July when he was down a whopping $500 million. The next month many thought could be Hall's last, with oil continuing its drop until the very end of the month, before a mysterious and completely unexpected surge in oil (driven by a collapse in OVX, or the oil VIX) send oil soaring on the last few days of trading. As oil spiked in August to save Hall's month, it was clear that someone was buying calls in massive size - sending volatility soaring (which would typically sync with lower prices). However, as those calls matured and "real'" weakness resumed so unmanipulated prices fell back to reality and Oil vol once again surged.



Euro Rises to Highest in 1 Month as Nowotny Says Views Overdone - (www.bloomberg.com)
ECB's Nowotny Criticizes `Absurd' Expectations for Stimulus
- (www.bloomberg.com)
Abengoa's Woes Risk Widening Grain Glut on Biofuel Concern
- (www.bloomberg.com)

Brazil November Consumer Prices Rise 1.01% From Previous Month
- (www.bloomberg.com)
China's Fiscal Squeeze Challenges Xi Goal as Slowdown Grinds On
- (www.bloomberg.com)
China Said to Form State-Owned Fund to Deal With Mining Debt
- (www.bloomberg.com)

Interview-Japan's GPIF says ready to hedge against currency volatility
- (www.reuters.com)
Exclusive: Australian police raid Sydney home of reported bitcoin creator
- (www.reuters.com)

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