Tuesday, December 30, 2014

Wednesday December 31 Housing and Economic stories


Bond Issues From Russia and Ecuador Serve as Cautionary Tales for Junk-Rated Debt - (www.nytimes.com) If David Letterman did a top 10 list for dubious bond investments, a case might be made for including two fast imploding issues from Ecuador and Russia. The euphoria for junk bonds from emerging market economies, fueled by rock-bottom interest rates in the United States, Japan and Europe, has offered up any number of fallen angels, from OGX, the bankrupt Brazilian energy firm, to a spate of Mexican home builders. But, in many ways, a $600 million bond issue by a Russian train company in 2012 and, two years later, a $2 billion offering by the government of Ecuador, serve as cautionary bookends for high-yield bond segment, even though it shows no sign of ending anytime soon. When Brunswick Rail, Russia’s largest private-sector train company, offered $600 million worth of bonds to global investors in 2012, the deal was a blowout. More than $3 billion in demand came from yield-starved global investors. Oil prices were high and Russian railroads were seen as a good growth play, notwithstanding the competition the company faced from state owned firms and the fact that Brunswick was borrowing in dollars and getting a good chunk of its revenues in rubles.

Major dry bulk carriers finish 2014 at standstill – (www.shippingwatch.comSpot rates for the major benchmark Capesize vessels continue to slide, and the ships are seeing very low activity in the Pacific and virtually none on the Atlantic. "Rates are falling further and further below Opex and decreased on Wednesday to USD 4,109 per day. Panamax is also quiet, and many owners are eager to sign contracts, which pulls the the rates down," said Fearnley on Thursday. According to analysts Platou, charter earnings for Capesize stand at USD 5,400 per day - below operating costs, which typically come to USD 6,500 per day for a newer vessel. It is unusually difficult to predict the future bulk market at this time, says Platou, citing developments in China with the country's reduced consumption and lower coal imports, developments that have hit dry bulk in 2014. And there is a big chance that next year will bring similar developments if Chinese politicians continue to favor their own domestic industry to the detriment of overseas suppliers.

Norway's oil sector faces tougher times as prices fall  - (www.dailymail.co.uk) Norway's oil sector is facing difficult times and energy investment forecasts may have to be cut further if prices continue to drop, central bank governor Oeystein Olsen said on Thursday. Prices have fallen to a 28-month low, hitting the Nordic country's vast oil industry, which accounts for a fifth of the economy and half of its exports. Oil and gas investments are expected to fall by 10 percent next year on investor demands for higher returns and a drop in oil prices. "If the oil price continues to drop, it will eventually reach a point where we'll have to reconsider our estimates for future (oil industry) investments," Olsen told reporters after a speech to business leaders. A weak PMI reading released Wednesday adds to the worries, on top of a steady stream of projects delays, cancellations and layoffs in the oil sector. The Norwegian purchasing managers' index (PMI) fell to 49.4 points in September from 51.8 in August. Analysts polled by Reuters had expected the index to fall to 51.0.


"Houston, You Have A Problem" - Texas Is Headed For A Recession Due To Oil Crash, JPM Warns - (www.zerohedge.com) It was back in August 2013, when there was nothing but clear skies ahead of the US shale industry that we asked "How Much Is Oil Supporting U.S. Employment Gains?" The answer we gave: The American Petroleum Institute said last week the U.S. oil and natural gas sector was an engine driving job growth.Eight percent of the U.S. economy is supported by the energy sector, the industry's lobbying group said, up from the 7.7 percent recorded the last time the API examined the issue. The employment assessment came as the Energy Department said oil and gas production continued to make gains across the board. With the right energy policies in place, API said the economy could grow even more. But with oil and gas production already at record levels, the narrative over the jobs prospects may be failing on its own accord.... The API's report said each of the direct jobs in the oil and natural gas industry translated to 2.8 jobs in other sectors of the U.S. economy. That in turn translates to a total impact on U.S. gross domestic product of $1.2 trillion, the study found. Fast forward to today when we are about to learn that Newton's third law of Keynesian economics states that every boom, has an equal and opposite bust. Which brings us to Texas, the one state that more than any other, has benefited over the past 5 years from the Shale miracle. And now with crude sinking by the day, it is time to unwind all those gains, and give back all those jobs. Did we mention: highly compensated, very well-paying jobs,not the restaurant, clerical, waiter, retail, part-time minimum-wage jobs the "recovery" has been flooded with. Here is JPM's Michael Feroli explaining why Houston suddenly has a very big problem.

How a freight bill went from $5,000 to $68,000 - (www.cnbc.com)  There are 620 cycling trainers stuck in Long Beach, California. They spent close to five days stuck on a boat outside of the port. When the container they were in was finally unloaded off the ship, it was parked in a rail transfer yard for two days. At this publication time, they are still there. The cycles were supposed to be in Atlanta on Wednesday. Given the delay there was no way the equipment, already pre-sold to customers, would make it to their destinations by Christmas. So the importer, Wahoo Fitness, loaded another 620 of its training cycles, called KICKRs and retailing for about $1,100 each, onto an airplane and flew them over from Asia. It cost $68,000. The ocean freight bill is typically between $3,000-$5,000. "It will reduce our gross margin by a third to a half," said Mike Stashak, vice president of sales and marketing at Wahoo, in an interview. "We're still making money off it, but not a whole lot."




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