Wednesday, December 17, 2014

Thursday December 18 Housing and Economic stories


Greece's stock market just suffered its worst collapse ever - (www.marketwatch.com)  Now this is Greek tragedy. Greece’s Athex Composite GD, -12.78% tanked almost 13% Tuesday — the biggest drop for the index on record, according to FactSet. The renewed jitters came after the government, in a surprise move late Monday, said it would bring forward presidential elections to Dec. 17, potentially, setting the scene for snap elections in early 2015. Here’s why that’s important: Far-left party Syriza currently is leading the early polls and it seems likely they would win a snap election. This is how to think about Syriza:
·         The party has been calling for an end to austerity in Greece
·         Has been campaigning for market-unfriendly measures
·         Is firmly against the international bailout program that helped the country avoid a default during the depths of its financial crisis.
How bad is Greece’s Tuesday collapse? It’s worse than the 9.7% drop the market saw Oct. 24, 2010, at the peak of Greek debt worries. The drop also eclipses the 10% fall Greek markets saw in 1989 during a bout of political turmoil.

No Escape From Pension Math in Pennsylvania - (www.bloomberg.com) Pennsylvania Governor-elect Tom Wolf earned a historic victory in ousting the state’s incumbent chief executive last month. Now budget woes and mounting retirement expenses threaten to undermine his campaign pledges. The 66-year-old Democrat will assume control of a government that has trailed all U.S. states in job growth since 2011. He has to balance promises, including more money for schools, with a $2 billion revenue shortfall for the year that begins July 1. Only New Jersey and Virginia are struggling more than Pennsylvania to fully fund retirement costs, according to Moody’s Investors Service. Pennsylvania’s credit has been cut this year by each of the three biggest rating companies, to two steps below the average for U.S. states. The grade may fall further if Wolf can’t plug revenue misses, said Bill Delahunty, the head of municipal research in Boston at Eaton Vance Management. Borrowing costs for the sixth-most-populous state may rise should the new governor fail to address the pension burden, said Paul Brennan, a money manager at Nuveen Asset Management, which oversees about $110 billion in munis.

As the sun sets in Athens, we thought a moment of reflection was worthwhile. Greek stocks are now down 13% - the biggest single-day drop since (drum roll please) the crash of 1987... led by total carnage in Greek banks (down 15-25% on the day). Greek bond yields exploded, 3YR +183bps to a new post-bailout high at 8.32% (and inverted to 10Y). Worst day since the 1987 crash for Greek stocks... As every smart money hedge fund traders best trade of the year - Greek Banks are destroyed...

Banks’ U.S. Debt Holdings Top $2 Trillion as Treasuries Rally - (www.bloomberg.com) American banks increased U.S. government debt holdings to a record $2 trillion as global regulators implement post-2008 financial-crisis rules requiring financial institutions to own the highest-quality assets while trimming risk-taking activities. U.S. debt has returned 5.3 percent this year as commercial lenders increased their net holdings of Treasuries to $615.6 billion this year as of Nov. 26, little changed from the highest ever, data from the Federal Reserve show. Banks have been net buyers of Treasuries and other agency debt for 14 straight months, equaling the longest streak of gains since June 2003. “Banks have been under tremendous pressure to shore up their balance sheets and that’s manifested in very large Treasury holdings,” said Aaron Kohli, an interest-rate strategist in New York at BNP Paribas SA, one of 22 primary dealers that trade with the Federal Reserve. “In the near-term, it will be difficult for Treasuries (BUSY) to engineer a sell-off because of the demand.”

Venezuelan Bonds Crash To Lowest Price Since 1998 - (www.zerohedge.com) Bond prices in Venezuela have totally collapsed this morning - at 45c on the dollar, they are the lowest since 1998 - as the realization of the "abyss" they are staring into sparks an exodus from all credit positions in the country. VENZ 5Y CDS rallied 130bps which signals hedgers unwinding and the simultaneous sale of the underlying bonds implies broad-based capital flight (and profit taking) as 1Y CDS surges to record highs at 4830bps. VENZ Bond prices collapse to 1998 lows...





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