Wednesday, May 21, 2014

Thursday May 22 Housing and Economic stories


Real home prices may decline for the next 30 years - (www.fool.com) "The housing boom in the early 2000s was driven by a sense that housing is a wonderful investment. It was not informed by good history," he said. Most people now agree on that much. "If you look at the history of the housing market, it hasn't been a good provider of capital gains. It is a provider of housing services," he explained. By that, he means a home gives you a place to live, a place to sleep, a place to store your stuff. But that's it. Americans believed -- and still believe -- that the value of their home will increase above the rate of inflation. And that, Shiller says, is wrong. "Capital gains have not even been positive. From 1890 to 1990, real inflation-corrected home prices were virtually unchanged." Shiller -- a pioneer of behavioral finance and one of the calmest, levelheaded economists I know -- becomes animated at this point, almost irritated. Debunking the notion that housing is a great investment is one of his favorite topics. Housing prices, he argues, could decline over long periods of time -- decades, even.

Economy puts the squeeze on grocery bills - (www.saukvalley.com) With all the recent turmoil, it may seem the least of our collective worries is the escalating cost of food. But for millions of Americans, this is a daily worry. Prices of beef, pork, fruits and vegetables are rising; current bouts of bad weather will not help. True, we pay a smaller percentage of our incomes for food than much of the world. And too many of us have eaten too many calories over the years. But most Americans get by on a fixed amount of money each week; 10 or 20 dollars more spent for the same amount of food means something has to give. Not insignificantly, along with plain old bad weather, climate change seems to be an increasing factor in food prices, along with mysterious blights, government regulations, land prices and changing food tastes. The price of limes is front-page news. (Yes, we now have the 89-cent lime. The Wall Street Journal found a California Mexican restaurant needing 1,000 limes a week that will give customers a 25-cent margarita in exchange for a bag of limes from backyard fruit trees.)

Jeremy Grantham on Bubbles: ‘I Am Sure It Will End Badly’ - (online.wsj.com) Legendary investor Jeremy Grantham predicts the bull market still has plenty of room to keep rallying, perhaps for another year or two. But another move higher will be followed by an inevitable crash, one in which pain will be felt far and wide. Stocks aren’t as frothy now as they were at previous market peaks, he says, and the Federal Reserve is also keeping interest rates pinned near zero while maintaining accomodative monetary policies. That’s why he doesn’t think the market has topped now. But the day of reckoning is coming. “I am sure it will end badly,” Mr. Grantham, founder of the Boston-based money-management firm GMO, wrote in his quarterly letter to investors. Mr. Grantham expects this year “should continue to be difficult” through October (he didn’t specifically allude to “sell in May and go away” but his prediction matches that adage). He then predicts the rally will regain steam in the fourth quarter and continue through the end of 2016. He sees at least 20% rally in the S&P 500 through the presidential election, one that would take the index to at least 2250. After that, it’ll get ugly.

AIG Profit Declines 27% on Property-Casualty Claims Costs - (www.bloomberg.com) American International Group Inc. (AIG), the largest commercial insurer in the U.S. and Canada, said first-quarter profit fell 27 percent as claims costs climbed at the property-casualty business. The stock dropped in extended trading. Net income declined to $1.61 billion, or $1.09 a share, from $2.21 billion, or $1.49, a year earlier, New York-based AIG said today in a statement. Operating profit fell 26 percent to $1.16 billion at the property-casualty business. Chief Executive Officer Robert Benmosche, 69, is shifting the business mix and cutting jobs as he works to improve results at the property-casualty unit. The CEO has used dividends and repurchases to reward shareholders who’ve helped recapitalize AIG as the company emerged from the U.S. rescue that it repaid at the end of 2012.

Who really benefits from housing "recovery" - (www.miamiherald.com) Lured by Miami’s cachet as an emerging international gateway and luxury getaway, foreign investors ranging from Russian oligarchs to Brazilian supermodels to anonymous Channel Islands companies have rushed in with mounds of cash. Along Miami Beach’s North Bay Road and Sunset Islands, Key Biscayne and Gables Estates, the elite are shelling out millions of dollars to buy teardowns to make room for new Gatsby-esque spreads. Developers are hawking one new pre-construction condominium tower after another. They feature gilded amenities fit for Dubai or Hong Kong (one will be topped with a private helipad; another, equipped with private automobile elevators). Glass-walled penthouses tout 360-degree views of the city, the ocean and Biscayne Bay. But that’s only part of the story. Miami’s housing comeback is heavily lopsided. Many ordinary people in South Florida are still under water. Others can’t get a mortgage for a simple 3/2 and instead shell out an outsized portion of their income for rent. The gulf between the haves and have-nots has been widening around the nation, but in few places so diametrically as in South Florida.





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