Wednesday, November 27, 2013

Thursday November 28 Housing and Economic stories


Desert Hot Springs, California, May Weigh Bankruptcy - (www.bloomberg.com) Desert Hot Springs, California, a resort town near Palm Springs, may become the first city since Detroit to seek bankruptcy protection from creditors after a sharp drop in revenue, according to a staff report. The city of 26,000 will run out of cash by March 31, according to a memo to the City Council from Amy Aguer, the interim director of finance and administration. She urged the council to declare a fiscal emergency at its Nov. 9 meeting, a prerequisite under state law for a Chapter 9 filing. If approved, Desert Hot Springs, about 110 miles (177 kilometers) east of Los Angeles, would join two other California cities in bankruptcy court: San Bernardino, with a population of 210,000, and Stockton, with 292,000 residents, the biggest U.S. city to enter Chapter 9 proceedings untilDetroit sought protection in July. “I’m just blindsided,” Mayor Yvonne Parks said yesterday when asked about the fiscal crisis. “There isn’t anything that could explain this. That’s what blows my mind.”

New China Cities: Shoddy Homes, Broken Hope - (www.nytimes.com) Three years ago, the Shanghai World Expo featured this newly built town as a model for how China would move from being a land of farms to a land of cities. In a dazzling pavilion visited by more than a million people, visitors learned how farmers were being given a new life through a fair-and-square deal that did not cost them anything. Today, Huaming may be an example of another transformation: the ghettoization of China’s new towns. Signs of social dysfunction abound. Young people, who while away their days in Internet cafes or pool halls, say that only a small fraction of them have jobs. The elderly are forced to take menial work to make ends meet. Neighborhood and family structures have been damaged. Most worrying are the suicides, which local residents say have become an all-too-familiar sign of despair.

Surprise tactics sweep central banking - (www.reuters.com)  After slashing interest rates to almost nothing and printing trillions of dollars, central banks are becoming increasingly reliant on another policy weapon: sucker punching markets. The European Central Bank shocked investors and forecasters last Thursday by cutting its main refinancing rate to a record low, reacting to a shock decline in inflation. It was the second big central bank surprise in less than two months, after the U.S. Federal Reserve decided in September not to trim its monthly bond purchase stimulus. And beyond the immediate impact on financial markets, central banks' shock therapy tactics have also had a lasting effect. The yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury bond -- one measure of government borrowing costs -- fell sharply in the aftermath of the Fed's decision, and it shows no signs of revisiting September's peaks for the year any time soon. The ECB's rate cut helped weaken the euro more than 1 percent against the dollar, and most economists polled by Reuters reckon it will put the currency on a firmly lower path from here -- huge help for the fragile euro zone recovery. 

U.S. Postal Service to deliver Amazon packages on Sundays  - (www.latimes.com) The postal service will deliver Amazon packages on Sundays in the L.A. and New York metropolitan areas at no extra charge starting this week. The service will expand to other cities next year. Giant online retailer Amazon.com Inc. is turning up the heat on rivals this holiday season and beyond under a new deal with the U.S. Postal Service for delivering packages on Sundays. Starting this week, the postal service will bring Amazon packages on Sundays to shoppers' doors in the Los Angeles and New York metropolitan areas at no extra charge. Next year, it plans to roll out year-round Sunday delivery to Dallas, New Orleans, Phoenix and other cities. Getting packages on Sundays normally is expensive for customers. United Parcel Service Inc.doesn't deliver on Sundays, according to a spokeswoman. And FedEx Corp. said Sunday "is not a regular delivery day," though limited options are available. The deal could be a boon for the postal service, which has been struggling with mounting financial losses and has been pushing to limit general letter mail delivery to five days a week.

Be Prepared For Stocks To Crash 40%-55% - (www.businessinsider.com) The stock market continues to set new highs, which is exciting and fun for those of us who own stocks. I own stocks, so I'm certainly enjoying it. I hope stocks continue to charge higher, but I can't find much data to suggest that they will. I only have a vague hope that the Fed will continue to pump air into the balloon and corporations will continue to find ways to cut more costs and grow their already record-high earnings. Meanwhile, every valid valuation measure I look at suggests that stocks are at least 40% overvalued and, therefore, are likely to produce lousy returns over the next 10 years. Which valuation measures suggest the stock market is very overvalued? These, among others:
·   Cyclically adjusted price-earnings ratio (current P/E is 25X vs. 15X average)
·   Market cap to revenue (current ratio of 1.6 vs. 1.0 average)
·   Market cap to GDP (double the pre-1990s norm)




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