Monday, June 23, 2014

Tuesday June 24 Housing and Economic stories


Half of Americans can't afford their house - (www.marketwatch.com) Over half of Americans (52%) have had to make at least one major sacrifice in order to cover their rent or mortgage over the last three years, according to the "How Housing Matters Survey," which was commissioned by the nonprofit John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation and carried out by Hart Research Associates. These sacrifices include getting a second job, deferring saving for retirement, cutting back on health care, running up credit card debt, or even moving to a less safe neighborhood or one with worse schools. ...What's more, at least 15% of American homeowners (or residents of 78 counties across the country) were living in housing markets where the monthly mortgage payment on a median-priced home requires more than 30% of the monthly median household income -- long considered the maximum for rent/mortgage repayments. 

NIRP (Negative Interest Rate Policy) Has Arrived: Europe Officially Enters The "Monetary Twilight Zone" - (www.zerohedge.com) Goodbye ZIRP, hello NIRP. Today's decision by the ECB to officially lower the deposit facility rate to negative (as in you pay the bank to hold your deposits) is shocking, but not surprising: we previewed just this outcome precisely two years ago in "Europe's "Monetary Twilight Zone" Neutron Bomb: NIRP" Here is what we wrote in June 2012 about Europe's unprecedented NIRP monetary experiment. Just because ZIRP is so 2009 (and will be until the end of central planning as the Fed can not afford to hike rates ever again), the ECB is now contemplating something far more drastic: charging depositors for the privilege of holding money. Enter NIRP, aka Negative Interest Rate Policy. Bloomberg reports that "European Central Bank President Mario Draghi is contemplating taking interest rates into a twilight zone shunned by the Federal Reserve. while cutting ECB rates may boost confidence, stimulate lending and foster growth, it could also involve reducing the bank’s deposit rate to zero or even lower. 

Construction Industry Calls for Redirection of Truck Weight Fees - (www.transportationca.com)  In a joint letter from the California Alliance for Jobs and Transportation California, construction and labor leaders called on the Governor and the Legislature to spend existing truck weight fees on transportation projects. Weight fees paid by commercial vehicles to mitigate additional roadway damage caused by heavy trucks have been directed to the State’s General Fund since 2011. The diversion of these fees, which raise nearly a billion dollars a year, was part of a deal approved by the Legislature that eliminated the State sales tax on gasoline and replaced the lost revenue with an equivalent increase in the gas tax. The money is currently being used to pay the debt service on general obligation transportation bonds to relieve pressure on the State’s General Fund. “These bonds were originally sold to voters as obligations of the General Fund,” stated Jim Earp, Executive Director of California Alliance for Jobs. “Now that the State’s budget picture is improving, those funds should be returned to transportation accounts for road and highway work.” The letter expresses concern about the low priority being placed on needed transportation system repairs, and points out that for the maintenance of local streets, roads and State highways, “the single most important action the Legislature could take this year is to redirect truck weight fees back to transportation repair and rehabilitation.”

Housing inventory manipulation overrides all bearish predictions - (www.ochousingnews.com) No matter how bad housing market conditions look, inventory restriction engineered by lenders will keep prices up and prevent a crash. Back during the financial mania, I enjoyed writing about the upcoming housing crash. As with any mania, people were irrational, and nobody wanted to believe a catastrophe was right around the corner, and people like me who sounded the alarm were dismissed as doom and gloomers who didn’t know what we were talking about. Some writers are naturally bearish, and they enjoy the outsider role. Most often they are ridiculed on the fringe until a financial collapse vaults them to prominence. Many people thought I was a permabear until 2010 when I started telling people to buy Las Vegas real estate. I’m a market realist who looks at valuations, and by 2010, valuations were so low in Las Vegas that unabashed bullishness was warranted. Today, there is a new crop of housing bears trying to gain attention by making very cogent arguments pointing out the myriad of problems facing US housing markets; unfortunately, they all overlook one problem: housing inventory manipulation overrides all bearish predictions.

Iron Ore Slump Seen by Ex-Vale’s Zhu Shuttering China Mines - (www.bloomberg.com) Surging supplies of seaborne iron ore will trigger the closure of high-cost output in China, according to Michael Zhu, former global sales director at Vale SA, the world’s largest producer of the steel-making raw material. “The first players to be out of the market will be the domestic producers who have higher costs,” said Zhu, president of Hong Kong-based trader Millennia Resources Ltd. Mainland mines will have to reduce output or shut if prices remain below $100 for another month or two, he said in an interview, forecasting prices may drop as low as $80 a ton this year. Producers in China, the largest user, face a rising challenge of lower-cost supplies from Australiaand Brazil that are spurring a global glut and hurting prices. Iron ore entered a bear market in March and fell below $100 a ton last month for the first time since 2012. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Australia and New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. both forecast this week a shakeout of Chinese mines as the surplus expands.




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