Sunday, June 30, 2013

Monday July 1 Housing and Economic stories


Greece back in crisis mode on state TV shutdown, downgrade - (www.reuters.com) Greek Prime Minister Antonis Samaras faced a political revolt on Wednesday from his ruling coalition partners after the government abruptly switched the state broadcaster off the air in the middle of the night. Screens went black on state broadcaster ERT, cutting newscasters off mid-sentence only hours after the decision was announced, in what the government said was a temporary measure to staunch a waste of taxpayers' money. Unions called a 24-hour nationwide general strike in protest, and journalists across all media called an indefinite strike. Some newspapers were shut and private TV stations broadcast reruns of soap operas and sitcoms instead of the news.

Oil product glut coming as refineries mushroom: IEA - (www.reuters.com) The world is heading for a glut of refined products as new Asian and Middle East refineries increase oil processing in a move likely to force less advanced competitors in developed countries to close, the West's energy agency said on Wednesday. The International Energy Agency said in its monthly report it expected 9.5 million barrels per day (bpd) of new crude distillation capacity, representing more than a 10th of global demand, to come on stream in 2013‐2018, substantially more than the forecast increase in crude production capacity and global demand growth.

Metacapital in Worst Slide as Bloodbath Roils Funds - (www.bloomberg.com) Deepak Narula rose to fame as manager of the best-performing hedge fund last year by navigating the government’s stimulus efforts. He’s having a harder time as the Federal Reserve moves closer to an exit. Metacapital Management LP’s flagship $1.5 billion fund lost an estimated 6.4 percent last month, the worst decline since it started in 2008, according to a letter to investors obtained by Bloomberg News. That followed drops of 0.5 percent in April and 0.1 percent in March, after 17 months of consecutive gains including a 41 percent return last year. Narula, like other investors in government-backed mortgage bonds, is being punished by speculation the Fed will scale back its debt-buying program. That has caused the securities to underperform Treasuries by the most since 2008. Rising home prices, President Barack Obama’s nomination of Democratic congressman Mel Watt to oversee Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, and other issues have further roiled the market.

Analysis: After emerging corporate bond boom, default risks on rise - (www.reuters.com) The $1 trillion market in emerging corporate bonds could be headed for a surge in defaults if company earnings in swiftly depreciating roubles or pesos fail to keep pace with dollar-based debt repayments. As the U.S. Federal Reserve considers when to turn off its printing presses, emerging currencies have crashed to multi-year lows against the dollar. That rout is a big risk for corporate debt, which has gone from being a sideshow of the sovereign bond market to an asset class that surpasses U.S. junk debt in size.

The long-term negative impact of temporary mortgage interest rate stimulus - (www.ochousingwire.com) Banks are in survival mode. They must reflate the housing bubble, or the losses on their non-performing single-family residential loans will wipe them out. In order to reflate the bubble, the banks must keep these properties off the MLS, a task they are currently succeeding at, and mortgage interest rates must remain low so buyers can bid up prices to peak levels so banks can liquidate without a loss. The chart above shows the $144.75 billion exposure they have just on their non-performing loans. Since these non-performing loans only represent 9% of the total number of underwater borrowers, the total potential exposure is more than 10 times larger. As I noted, banks are still exposed to $1 trillion in unsecured mortgage debt.





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