Sunday, May 7, 2017

Monday May 8 2017 Housing and Economic stories

TOP STORIES:            

Are American Debt Slaves Getting in Trouble Again?  - (www.wolfstreet.com) American consumers are holding $1 trillion in revolving credit, mostly in credit card debt. So how well is this segment of consumer debt holding up? Synchrony Financial – GE’s spin-off that issues credit cards for Walmart and Amazon – disclosed on Friday that, despite assurances to the contrary just three months ago, net charge-off would rise to at least 5% this year. Its shares plunged 16% and are down 27% year-to-date. Credit-card specialist Capital One disclosed in its Q1 earnings report last week that provisions for credit losses rose to $2 billion, with net charge-offs jumping 28% year-over-year to $1.5 billion. Other worries about consumer debt in the US are piling up. The $1.4 trillion in student loans are already in crisis, though the government backs them, and they cannot be charged off in bankruptcy. Mortgage debt is still hanging in there, given the surge in home prices that make defaults unlikely. But of the $1.1 trillion in auto loans, subprime loans packaged into asset backed securities are getting crushed by net charge-off rates that are worse than during the Financial Crisis.

Italian Government Approves Alitalia Bankruptcy, Bonds Collapse - (www.zerohedge.com) Earlier we reported that Italy's national carrier, Alitalia, did what many expected it to do after last week's rescue plan, which would have cut 1,700 jobs and slashed pay, failed and filed for bankruptcy. What was less expected is that just hours after filing, the Italian government approved the bankruptcy process following a short cabinet meeting, an outcome that will lead to either Alitalia’s sale or liquidation, raising the possibility that Alitalia it will follow in the path of KLM and Iberia in ending a storied history as one of Europe’s major standalone airlines. The Italian government approved Alitalia's bankruptcy process following a short cabinet meeting, an outcome that will lead to either Alitalia’s sale or liquidation, raising the possibility that the carrier will follow in the path of KLM and Iberia in ending a storied history as one of Europe’s major standalone airlines. It may also result in 12,000 Italians losing their jobs in the near future.

Global Deal Making Falls to Slowest Pace in 20 Years - (www.wsj.com) Corporate deal-making has hit a rough patch despite robust stock and bond markets that in the past have led to a deluge of such activity. Mergers and acquisitions this year have slid to their lowest level globally in nearly 20 years because valuations as well as political and economic uncertainty are making potential buyers wary. The number of deals world-wide involving publicly traded targets this year fell to 793 as of April 28, according to Dealogic, down 20% from 991 in the comparable period last year and the lowest number since 1998. Meanwhile, companies are paying higher multiples for acquisitions and investments. Buyers paid an average of 12.8 times the target’s earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization so far this year, up from 12.1 for the comparable period in 2016 and the highest year-to-date multiple since 1997. The value of deals globally, however, is up 13.9% year to date at $479.8 billion. Dealogic figures exclude spinoffs, and include minority investments.

The city of Philadelphia just gave Wells Fargo its walking papers - (www.cnbc.com) Efforts by Wells Fargo to move beyond its bogus accounts scandal have been set back by the loss of a big government contract. The Philadelphia City Council voted Monday to change handlers of its $2 billion payroll account, according to published reports. Instead of continuing the arrangement with Wells, the city chose to hire Citizens Bank for the next fiscal year starting in July. The move comes under the dark cloud that has enveloped Wells since the second-largest bank by assets in the U.S. agreed to pay $185 million in fines for opening some 2 million accounts for customers without their knowledge. More than 5,000 Wells Fargo employees lost their jobs, and several top executives were sacked. The scandal emanated from aggressive cross-selling goals in which sales people were encouraged to enroll customers in as many programs as possible.

Greece reaches interim deal (again) with creditors to pave way for bailout talks – (www.theguardian.com)  A compromise is required to unblock a tranche of loans Greece needs for debt repayments of €7bn ($7.6bn) in July.
Under pressure from its creditors -- the European Union, European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund -- the government agreed earlier this month to adopt another €3.6bn ($3.8bn) in cuts in 2019 and 2020. Athens conceded fresh pension and tax break cuts in return for permission to spend an equivalent sum on poverty relief measures.




Thursday, May 4, 2017

Friday May 5 2017 Housing and Economic stories

TOP STORIES:            

Ralph Lauren Closes 5th Ave Flagship Store; Still Paying $70K a Day in Rent  - (www.jewishvoiceny.com) Suffice it to say that industry insiders and other observers of the fashion scene were a bit more than shocked to learn that Mr. Lauren pulled out of his flagship location earlier this month. Speaking to the NY Post, Tom Cusick, the president of the Fifth Avenue Business Improvement District said, "I don't recall any company pulling out of a location with a long-term lease after such a short time on Fifth Avenue. "That gives you a good indication of how poorly they were doing at that location that they are paying rent there on an empty space," one source told the New York Post. The person who brought Mr. Lauren and Coca Cola together in the 2013 lease deal was CBRE's   Richard Hodos. He earned REBNY's Retail Deal of the Year Award for his efforts in doing so.

London’s Deflating House Price Bubble Gets Messier - (www.wolfstreet.com) Over 40% of luxury apartments in a tower on the Southbank, next to the London Eye, were bought by companies registered in the British Virgin Islands, one of myriad nodes in a vast, secretive financial web of UK-affiliated tax havens. Over £4 billion worth of London real estate was bought by people representing a high money laundering risk, estimates the report. The total is probably much higher. London has also become a magnet for “crisis capital,” with huge deposits of wealth fleeing insecurity overseas being invested into the capital’s property market. A sharp drop in electricity usage in areas with a high density of foreign ownership shows that thousands of properties are lying unused for much of the year. Inevitably, public anger is rising. In a poll conducted by YouGov on behalf of Transparency International UK, 54% of Londoners said they believe house prices are being ratcheted up by rich people from overseas cornering the high-end property market. More than 1 in 5 of respondents thought international buyers were purchasing property in order to launder money.

 

45% Of Americans Spend Up To Half Of Income Repaying "Excessive/Frivolous" Credit Card Debts – (www.zerohedge.com) “...More than 4 in 10 Americans with debt (45%) spend up to half of their monthly income on debt repayment..." On several occasions we've pointed out that the baby boomer generation is, to put it mildly, ill-prepared for retirement.  In fact, over 50% of baby boomers have basically no savings set aside for retirement at all.  Now, a new survey from Northwestern Mutual helps to shed some light on why Americans are completely incapable of saving money.  First, roughly 50% of Americans have debt balances, excluding mortgages mind you, of over $25,000, with the average person owing over $37,000, versus a median personal income of just over $30,000.  Therefore, it's not difficult to believe, as Northwestern Mutual points out, that 45% of Americans spend up to half of their monthly take home pay on debt service alone....which, again, excludes mortgage debt.

Trump could target 'carried interest' tax loophole: official - (www.reuters.com) The Trump administration's push to overhaul tax laws might soon target a loophole used by some financial managers to lower their tax rates, White House Chief of Staff Reince Priebus said on Sunday. President Donald Trump campaigned before the Nov. 8 election to eliminate the so-called "carried interest" loophole, which is used by many financial managers to lower tax obligations. But a rough outline for a major tax overhaul released last week failed to mention the loophole. Priebus, however, hinted that carried-interest could be on the chopping block and warned against analysts taking the view that financial managers would keep on benefiting from it. "That balloon is going to get popped pretty quick," Priebus told ABC's "This Week." The carried interest rule allows financial managers at private equity, hedge fund and other firms to pay a capital gains tax rate on their income instead of the higher income tax rate.

As China’s Investors Rush In, Hong Kong Shares Take a Wild Ride - (www.nytimes.com) Meitu had been a snoozer of a stock since listing in Hong Kong in December. Then investors from mainland China had a chance to buy in. Almost immediately, shares of Meitu, a Chinese smartphone app maker, jumped 80 percent in a week — then lost the gains nearly as fast. It briefly ranked as one of the most actively traded stocks in Hong Kong, overtaking blue-chip names like HSBC. The moves were remarkable for a small, unprofitable company that makes a selfie app that lets users morph into fairylike airbrushed versions of themselves.



Stocks Advance, Yen Erases Gain on Congress Deal: Markets Wrap - (www.bloomberg.com)
U.S. Looks at Sanctions, Military Action to Counter North Korea
- (www.bloomberg.com)
David Stockman: Trump’s tax plan is ‘dead on arrival’ and Wall St. is ‘delusional' for believing it
- (www.cnbc.com)

Fed Officials Expected to Keep Rates Steady
- (www.wsj.com)
Trump Pushing for Vote on Health Bill, but Stumbling Blocks Remain
- (www.wsj.com)
On Trade, a Politically Feisty Trump Risks Economic Damage
- (www.nytimes.com)

Wednesday, May 3, 2017

Thursday May 4 2017 Housing and Economic stories

TOP STORIES:            

Atlanta Fed GDPNow Nails it: Economy “Surprises” to Downside, Growth Near Zero - (www.wolfstreet.com) The US economy surprised economists to the downside once again, a terrible habit it has picked up over the past years. GDP adjusted for inflation inched up only 0.7% “compound annual rate of change.” This means that if the economy keeps growing at this rate for four quarters in a row, economic growth for the entire year would only be 0.7%. By comparison, in 2016, economic growth was 1.6%, matching 2011 for the worst rate since the Financial Crisis. So 0.7% is ugly. It was the weakest growth since Q1 2014. But wait. It gets worse. This is the seasonally adjusted “compound annual rate of change,” according to the “advance” estimate of the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The BEA’s seasonally adjusted “annual rate of change” – without the “compound” – which is what the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model is forecasting, was only 0.2%, just a hair above zero. From the BEA:

"As If Millions Of Unicorns Suddenly Cried Out In Terror": Cloudera IPOes At Less Than Half Its Last Private Valuation Round - (www.zerohedge.com) Cloudera, once one of the most highly valued private tech companies, priced its IPO at less than half the company's valuation from its last private financing round back in 2014. As the FT notes, the share sale marked a new low for so-called unicorns, or private tech companies once valued at more than $1bn. Companies such as Cloudera have turned to Wall Street as the once red-hot private investment market has cooled, forcing some to take big discounts on their former valuations to raise more money. Among the biggest losers in the Cloudera IPO, if only on paper, will be Intel, which sank $742m into the big data company in 2014. At the time, that investment set a record $4.1 billion valuation for Cloudera, pushing it into the top 30 ranking of most valuable global "unicorns" according to the WSJ. Fast forward to late on Thursday, when the company announced a price of $15 for shares in its IPO. While above the indicated range of $12-$14, it was less than half the $30.95 it sold its shares for in 2014.
Cloudera will raise $225 million in cash proceeds from its NYSE IPO on Friday, giving it an initial market cap of $1.9 billion. 

Brazilian Labor Unions Stage Nationwide Strike Against Temer’s Agenda - (www.bloomberg.com)  Millions of Brazilians were stranded without public transport and faced shuttered banks and schools on Friday as labor unions staged a nationwide strike against President Michel Temer’s reform agenda. Buses and trains were down in several major cities. Access roads to airports in Rio de Janeiro, Sao Paulo and Brasilia were temporarily blocked by protesters but, barring some delays and cancellations, flights around the country continued to operate. In the nation’s capital Brasilia, the number of security officials protecting government buildings outnumbered protesters who mixed with cyclists enjoying a sunny, traffic-free day downtown. The general strike comes at a delicate moment for the Temer administration. Its commitment to tackle Brazil’s rising budget deficit has drawn praise from investors and helped fuel a currency and stock market rally over the past year. 

This Is What Americans Spent The Most Money On In The First Quarter - (www.zerohedge.com) …. Recreational vehicles ;-)   As discussed earlier, it was an abysmal quarter for the US, pressured by what is traditionally the strongest segment of the economy, responsible for 70% of GDP growth: US consumer spending. At 0.23% annualized, this was the worst print going back to 2009. But that doesn't mean that Americans stopped spending completely, quite the contrary. According to the BEA's "goalseeked" models, even as retail sales tumbled, as Obamacare continued to drain disposable income away from other discretionary purchases, Americans - who spent far less on cars, clothing and housing in the first quarter than in Q4 - were scrambling to buy... recreational vehicles!? Incidentally, this won't be the first time Americans splurged on RVs. The last time they did this? Exactly one year ago.

ETFs Are ‘Weapons of Mass Destruction,’ FPA Capital Managers Say - (www.bloomberg.com) Exchange-traded funds are “weapons of mass destruction” that have distorted stock prices and created the potential for a market selloff, according to the managers of the FPA Capital Fund. “When the world decides that there is no need for fundamental research and investors can just blindly purchase index funds and ETFs without any regard to valuation, we say the time to be fearful is now,” Arik Ahitov and Dennis Bryan, who run the $789 million fund, said in an April 6 letter to investors in the actively managed fund. The flood of money into passive products is making stock prices move in lockstep and creating markets increasingly divorced from underlying fundamentals, the managers said. As the market moves ever higher, there’s the potential for a sharp decline. The U.S. ETF market has about $2.7 trillion in assets, the majority in products that track indexes. ETFs have attracted more than $160 billion in new flows so far this year, Bloomberg data show.




Tuesday, May 2, 2017

Wednesday May 3 2017 Housing and Economic stories

TOP STORIES:            

Corruption Scandals already Trip Up Spain’s New Government - (www.wolfstreet.com) After taking almost a whole year to form, Spain’s coalition government is already showing signs of strain. Chief among its problems is the endless string of corruption scandals engulfing the government’s majority party, the People’s Party. In the latest scandal the regional government of Madrid — a bastion of the party’s national apparatus — is accused of channeling illegal funds through the local water company, Canal de Isabel II. Also, the embattled construction behemoth OHL allegedly gave the former president of the regional government, Ignacio González, a €1.4 million bribe in return for the tender of a light-rail project in Madrid. González is now in jail awaiting charges, as is his brother who is promising to drag down others. Javier López Madrid, OHL’s chief executive, has also been arrested by Spain’s Civil Guard.

 

Crashing Canadian Mortgage Lender Bailed-Out By 321,000 Retired Ontario Healthcare Workers - (www.zerohedge.com) With Canada's housing bubble imploding amid the collapse of the country's largest mortgage lender, it was no surprise that a bailout had been orchestrated, and now we know the source of the $1.5 billion 'loan' - 321,000 retired healthcare workers in Ontario. As we noted yesterday, the stock of Home Capital Group cratered by over 60%, its biggest drop on record, after the company disclosed that it struck an emergency liquidity arrangement for a C$2 billion ($1.5 billion) credit line to counter evaporating deposits at terms that will leave the alternative mortgage lender unable to meet financial targets, and worse, may leave it insolvent in very short notice. As part of this inevitable outcome, one which presages the company's eventual disintegration and likely liquidation, Bloomberg reported that the non-binding rescue loan with an unnamed counterparty will be secured by a portfolio of mortgage loans originated by Home Trust, the Toronto-based firm said in a statement Wednesday. Home Capital shares dropped by 61% in Toronto to the lowest since 2003, dragging down other home lenders.

The U.S. Student Loan Implosion: By The Numbers  - (politicalcalculations.blogspot.gr) The Consumer Federation of America recently put out a press release that reports that they've found that 1.1 million student loan borrowers in the United States have gone 270 or more days without making payments on their Federal Direct Student Loans, with more than $137 billion worth of the loans issued by the U.S. government now qualifying as being in default by that standard. The combination of low number of defaulters and relatively large amount of defaulted student loans tells us that these individuals have truly racked up what might be considered to be gargantuan student loan debt... The average student loan balance in the U.S. is $30,650. For Americans who haven't defaulted on their student loans, that average figure drops to $28,150. But for Americans who have defaulted on their payments to their U.S. government creditor, the average balance on their Federal Direct Student Loan is $124,545.

Bond Buyers Blacklist Some Chinese Provinces After Run of Defaults - (www.bloomberg.com) Investors are becoming more discerning when it comes to the origin of Chinese debt. China saw its worst start to a year on record for corporate defaults, with companies headquartered in two eastern provinces -- Liaoning and Shandong -- responsible for the lion’s share. Money managers are taking notice, with a run of messy, high-profile company scandals helping sour sentiment toward certain regions. Beijing’s de-leveraging drive, which has been ramped up this month and has boosted borrowing costs, is also a factor. “When the whole bond market is under pressure amid regulatory checks, investors would certainly want to sell those in risky regions first,” said Nie Wen, an economist at Huabao Trust Co. in Shanghai, which managed 557.5 billion yuan ($81 billion) at the end of 2015. “As the liquidity tide starts to ebb, it’s time to see who’s swimming naked.”

Trump plan to slash business taxes to test Congress on deficit - (www.reuters.com) President Donald Trump unveiled a one-page plan on Wednesday proposing deep U.S. tax cuts, many for businesses, that would make the federal deficit balloon if enacted, drawing a cautious welcome from fiscal conservatives and financial markets. While the proposed tax cuts would please those helped by them, such as multinational corporations and wealthy taxpayers, Trump's package fell far short of the kind of comprehensive tax reform that both parties in Washington have sought for years. As his milestone 100th day in office on Saturday nears, Trump has been scrambling to show progress on his agenda. The tax plan, though meager in detail, matched up closely with the promises he made during his victorious 2016 election campaign.




Monday, May 1, 2017

Tuesday May 2 2017 Housing and Economic stories

TOP STORIES:            

Canada's Housing Bubble Explodes As Its Biggest Mortgage Lender Crashes Most In History - (www.zerohedge.com) Call it Canada's "New Century" moment. We first introduced readers to the company we said was the "tip of the iceberg in Canada's magnificent housing bubble" nearly two years ago, in July 2015 when we exposed a major problem that we predicted would haunt Home Capital Group, Canada's largest non-bank mortgage lender: liar loans in particular, and a generally overzealous lending business model with little regard for fundamentals. In the interim period, many other voices - most prominently noted short-seller Marc Cohodes - would constantly remind traders and investors about the threat posed by HCG. Today, all those warnings came true, when the stock of Home Capital Group cratered by over 60%, its biggest drop on record, after the company disclosed that it struck an emergency liquidity arrangement for a C$2 billion ($1.5 billion) credit line to counter evaporating deposits at terms that will leave the alternative mortgage lender unable to meet financial targets, and worse, may leave it insolvent in very short notice.

Can US-style Housing Crisis, “Jingle Mail” Hit Canada’s Banks? - (www.wolfstreet.com) This comes up constantly in discussions on the current house price bubbles in some cities in the US and Canada, and whether a US-style crisis could happen in Canada: The housing bust in the US during the Financial Crisis was marked by banks receiving “jingle mail” from homeowners who saw the value of their homes plunge and their equity turn negative. These folks didn’t feel like paying the mortgage anymore and just turned in the keys to the bank though they had jobs and could have made their mortgage payments. These “strategic defaults,” it is said, won’t happen in Canada. Therefore, there will not be a US-style housing crisis and financial crisis in Canada. In won’t happen in Canada, they say, because mortgages are “recourse,” and in the US they’re “non-recourse.” We hear this constantly. But it’s wrong.

Social Unrest Is France's Biggest Risk - (www.bloomberg.com) With such high turnout in Sunday's first-round presidential vote, one thing that would seem to be working in France is democracy. But a recent survey revealed that 70 percent of French voters believe that democracy does not work well in France. Only 11 percent trust political parties and 24 percent trust the media (the army and police are the exception, with close to 80 percent support). In this context, the big question facing the next French president is whether he -- as it almost certainly will be Emmanuel Macron -- can keep the social peace in a country that is seething with divisions and has a long history of airing them on the streets.

America’s Rich Get Richer and the Poor Get Replaced by Robots - (www.bloomberg.com) America’s working class is falling further behind. The rich-poor gap -- the difference in annual income between households in the top 20 percent and those in the bottom 20 percent -- ballooned by $29,200 to $189,600 between 2010 and 2015, based on Bloomberg calculations using U.S. Census Bureau data. Computers and robots are taking over many types of tasks, shoving aside some workers while boosting the productivity of specialized employees, contributing to the gap. “Technological developments have increasingly replaced low- and mid-skilled jobs while complementing higher-skilled jobs,” said Chad Sparber, an associate professor and chair of the economic department at Colgate University. This shift is predicted to continue. About 38 percent of U.S. jobs could be at high risk of automation by the early 2030s, according to a study by PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP. The “most-exposed” industries include retail and wholesale trade, transportation and storage, and manufacturing, with less-educated workers facing the biggest challenges.

There's a Huge Disagreement Between Bonds and Stocks - (www.bloomberg.com) Markets are taking sides when it comes to the direction of the U.S. economy. In the green corner are stocks. The Standard & Poor’s 500 index is just 0.2 percent away from a record high reached in March on bets that Donald Trump’s administration will push through tax-code changes to spark growth. In the red corner sit U.S. government bonds, where benchmark 10-year Treasury yields have unwound almost half of their post-election increase, suggesting a far more pessimistic view the economy. “The increasing divergence between global equity market performance and bond markets has raised questions as to whom is right,” Jefferies Group LLC analysts led by Sean Darby wrote in a note.