Tuesday, November 8, 2016

Wednesday November 9 20916 Housing and Economic stories


Dallas "Pension Fund Panic" As Mayor Warns Of 130% Property Tax Hike To Avoid Collapse - (www.zerohedge.com)  "This is much like a Bernie Madoff scheme, if you ask me," said Dallas mayor Miek Rawling discussing the collapse of the local Dallas Police and Fire Pension Fund. The Dallas pension board wants the city to contribute $1.1. billion in 2018, but to do that, they would have to increase the property tax rate by 130%. In August, we created the chart below as a simplistic illustration of the pension "duration dilemma."  The chart graphs how a pension liability grows in a declining interest rate environment versus the value of 5-year and 30-year treasury bonds.  As you can see, a $1BN pension that is fully funded at prevailing interest rates would be nearly $700mm underfunded if interest rates declined 300bps and all of their assets were invested in 30-year treasury bonds.  The result is obviously even worse if the fund's assets are invested in shorter duration 5-year treasuries. 

China's Moves to Cool Property Prices May Be Working - (www.bloomberg.com) The push by China’s policy makers to rein in property bubbles looks to be getting traction, according to early indicators from the nation’s biggest cities. Beijing home sales volume plunged 41 percent year-on-year last month while Shanghai’s slumped 18 percent, China Real Estate Information Corp. data show, after new purchase restrictions and tightened mortgage lending. Transactions fell 50 percent in smaller cities. Now policy makers must balance deflating property prices with safeguarding the expansion. Efforts to curb excessive gains could cut 0.6 percentage point from 2017 economic growth, and as much as 1 point with aggressive national tightening, according to Morgan Stanley.

What the Heck’s Wrong with This Market? Biggest IPO of the Year Sags to New Low - (www.wolfstreet.com)  Shares of parcel-delivery company ZTO Express dropped another 4.9% today on the New York Stock Exchange and closed at a new all-time low of $15.20. The previous all-time low had been obtained the day it went public on October 27: it plunged 15% from its IPO price of $19.50. The IPO had raised $1.4 billion, the largest US IPO of 2016. It is now down 22% from its IPO price. The company is based in Shanghai and doing all its business in China. Why did it go public on the NYSE? We assume because that’s where the money is. And because its toxic dual-class share structure is illegal in China. It gives founder Lai Meisong 80% voting power in the company. The shares traded on the NYSE are not actually shares of the Chinese company anyway, but shares of a “variable-interest entity” set up in the Cayman Islands, which is contractually entitled to the profits of the Chinese company.

‘We Almost Have Riots’: Tensions Flare in Silicon Valley Over Growth - (www.nytimes.com) Silicon Valley is bent on disrupting the world. Its products affect how millions upon millions of people live and work. But when it comes to the physical space that many technologists call home, there are increasing demands to leave things alone. The heart of Silicon Valley is a 75-mile strip of land anchored by San Francisco at one end and San Jose at the other. In between is a suburbia strewn with corporate campuses and the estates of those who run them. Congested and forbiddingly expensive, it is a region choking on its own success. “Silicon Valley has been flashing a ‘vacancy’ sign for decades — come here and build a company,” said Larry A. Rosenthal, a specialist in land use and urban policy at the University of California, Berkeley. “Now some people are saying, ‘We’ve hit our limit.’ They may be reaching their threshold tolerance for pain.”

Solar Lobbyist Whines His Subsidized Panels Aren't Cost Effective Anymore – (www.dailycaller.com) Solar panels became way less cost-effective after Louisiana cut back solar subsidies, according to industry insiders Wednesday. Louisiana cut back solar subsidies late last year and began taxing rooftop solar panels, apparently costing a solar lobbyist a fair amount of money. “Back in 2012, my family installed a new solar power system on our home,” Simon Mahan, a renewable energy manager for the green energy lobbying group called the Southern Alliance for Clean Energy, wrote in The IND Monthly. “The new rate structure for current net metered customers, including solar power families like mine, is also likely to almost double our monthly electric bills. And the new solar tax will likely double the payback time,” Mahan wrote.



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