The
Amazing Collapse of Russia’s Auto Market - (www.wolfstreet.com) We
don’t hear much from the global automakers and their analysts about the
multi-year sales fiasco in Russia, in part because they don’t like to bring up
crummy data unless they have to. And they don’t have to. For them, Russia is
just a tiny market, compared to China and the US: through October this year,
new light vehicle sales in Russia amounted to about 8% of sales in the US. Since
2010, auto sales in China, the US, and many other countries have boomed. And
they grew in Russia too, but only until late 2012, when the market began to
stall. They declined in 2013. Then, when the sanctions hit in 2014, the
market sagged. When the oil bust hit in 2015, the market crashed. And to this day,
it continues to head south. The numbers are stunning.
India’s
Largest Bank Gets $7 Billion in Deposits as ATMs Run Dry - (www.bloomberg.com) Indian
government’s surprise move to ban high-denomination banknotes on Nov. 8 has
seen lenders lure 2 trillion rupees ($29.8 billion), as customers across
the nation queue for hours to deposit the old bills. The decision has also put
tremendous pressure on the banking system to replenish the funds, as the banned bills accounted
for 86 percent of money in circulation. More than 70 million transactions were
recorded up to mid-day of Nov. 12, the Ministry of Finance said in a statement
late Saturday. There’s adequate money in the currency chests at more than 4,000
locations and re-configuration of dispensing machines to disburse new notes
will be completed within two weeks, Finance Minister Arun Jaitley said. Lenders
have been caught out by Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s unexpected and
widely-praised announcement of the withdrawal of 500-rupee and 1,000-rupee
notes, part of a crackdown on tax evasion and the underground economy. The
Reserve Bank of India on Sunday urged the public not to be anxious and avoid
going to banks repeatedly to draw and hoard cash.
France’s
Bonds Feel Election Jitters as Trump Spurs Market Split - (www.bloomberg.com) The
rift between core European bonds from France and Germany increased after Donald
Trump’s surprise victory in the U.S. presidential elections. The difference in
yield between 10-year French securities and similar-maturity German bunds,
Europe’s benchmark securities, closed at its widest in 14 months on Friday.
That mirrors how the spread moved after Britain’s shock decision to leave the
European Union in June. The Republican candidate’s rise to prominence was
compared in markets to Brexit in that surging populist sentiment helped carry
the vote. This has revived investors’ concerns of a similar outcome in
next year’s presidential elections in
France. Marine Le Pen, leader of the anti-establishment and anti-Europe
National Front party congratulated Trump and said his victory is a harbinger of
what could happen in her own country.
The
Global “Populist” Doom Tour Swings to Italy - (www.wolfstreet.com) Widespread
public disaffection and dissatisfaction are not unique to the UK and US;
they’re on the rise all over the developed world. It’s not hard to see why. In
the words of
Mark Blyth, one of an embarrassingly small number of economists to correctly
call both Brexit and the victory of Trump, the last 30 years have seen “a huge amount of
economic growth but hardly anyone’s benefited from it.” And now the people
are “fed up” and have decided at any opportunity to “give their elites notice
that they’ve had enough.” On December 4th, Italy could become the next whistle
stop on the global populist doom tour as its people vote in a national
referendum on the government’s proposed constitutional reforms, which seek to
drastically curb the role of the upper house Senate, a move that Italian
premier Matteo Renzi says will simplify decision-making and ensure stable
government. Opponents fear it will make the legislative process more complicated
and reduce checks and balances.
Donald Trump Win Has Investors Selling in Emerging Markets - (www.wsj.com) Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential election could jeopardise the recent rally in emerging markets if the US takes an insular, anti-globalisation stance. This week, veteran fund manager Neil Woodford said that Mr Trump’s election could “puncture the love affair that the market has had this year with emerging market shares and bonds”. After years in the doldrums, emerging markets have come back into favour among investors recently. Over the past year, the average global emerging markets fund has returned 31pc, and most funds’ one-year return eclipses their three-year performance.
Unexpected Election Outcome Begets Unexpected Winners and Losers - (www.bloomberg.com)
Trump hammered the Federal Reserve as a candidate. As president, he could quickly reshape it - (www.latimes.com)
Trump may already have a plan ready to revamp Dodd-Frank - (www.reuters.com)
With Trump in Power, the Fed Gets Ready for a Reckoning - (www.nytimes.com)
Emerging market currencies fall most in 5 years - (www.ft.com)
Henry Kaufman says Trump will help kill 30-year bond rally - (www.ft.com)
South Korea's Park faces resignation calls at huge protest rally - (www.reuters.com)
Turkey halts activities of 370 groups as purge widens - (www.reuters.com)
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