Tuesday, November 3, 2015

Wednesday November 4 Housing and Economic stories


Tech Startups Feel an IPO Chill - (online.wsj.com) Dropbox Inc. had no trouble boosting its valuation to $10 billion from $4 billion early last year, turning the online storage provider’s chief executive into one of Silicon Valley’s newest paper billionaires. But the euphoria has begun to fade. Investment bankers caution that the San Francisco company might be unable to go public at $10 billion, much less deliver a big pop to recent investors and employees who hoped to strike it rich, according to people familiar with the matter. BlackRock Inc., which led the $350 million deal that more than doubled Dropbox’s valuation, has cut its estimate of the company’s per-share value by 24%, securities filings show. Dropbox responds that it is continuing to increase its business, added 500 employees in the past year, including senior executives, and has no need for additional capital from private or public investors.

China State Steel Firm to Default After Government Said to Help - (www.bloomberg.com) A Chinese state-owned steel trader is set to default on a bond payment even after the government was said to have stepped in to help, highlighting worsening corporate finances as an economic slowdown deepens. Sinosteel Co. will delay an interest payment due Tuesday on 2 billion yuan ($315 million) of 5.3 percent notes maturing in 2017, according to a statement on Chinabond’s website Monday. The firm is doing so as it plans to back the bonds with stock of unit Sinosteel Engineering & Technology Co., and that may affect issues related to interest payment, it said without elaborating. The failure to pay interest on time constitutes a default, said Industrial Securities Co., Haitong Securities Co. and China Merchants Securities Co. More Chinese firms are struggling to repay obligations after the yuan’s fall, a stock rout and speculation that the bond market is overheating. Government-backed companies aren’t immune, and defaults this year had already included two state-owned enterprises, according to China International Capital Corp. The weakest economic growth in a quarter century has also taken a toll on commodities companies, with coking-coal importer Winsway Enterprises Holdings Ltd. defaulting on dollar notes earlier this year.

JPMorgan: The Stock Market Still Has $90 Billion in Short Sales Left to Cover - (www.bloomberg.com) Here’s an awkward fact for anyone attributing the three-week climb in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index to bearish investors unwinding trades: over that stretch, short interest hasn’t budged. That’s according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. analysts, who compared the amount of stock that traders have borrowed -- the first step in a short sale -- with the total available at institutions to lend. The level is almost 7 percent, near a three-year high. Separate data compiled by Markit Ltd. tells the same story: short interest is about 3 percent of all shares outstanding, roughly the same as at the bottom of the August selloff. The research is at odds with theories that the only thing driving American equities higher since September has been purchases by traders who got so rich in the meltdown that they were content to take profits. While showing bearish sentiment hasn’t dissipated, it also suggests more buying power exists should the pessimists really capitulate. “What this means is we can reasonably infer that any tailwind from short covering hasn’t really been occurring and hasn’t been driving the October rally,” JPMorgan strategists said. “It doesn’t tell you when or to what degree it will happen but it tells you it’s not been entirely technical and that’s a positive.”

The Hottest Deal for Commodity Traders: Buying Their Own Bonds - (www.bloomberg.com) Forget oil, copper and wheat. Commodities traders are crowing about the money to be made in the bond market. On the cocktail party circuit at the industry’s LME Week earlier this month, at least a dozen traders and executives said that the surest profits these days was in debt issued by their employers and their very own rivals: Glencore Plc, Louis Dreyfus Commodities BV, Trafigura Pte Ltd. and Noble Group Ltd. Take $1.25 billion of Glencore notes maturing this month: the yield surged to a record 32.3 percent on Sept. 29, up from less than 2 percent in early September. Buying $1 million worth of the bond that day may generate in excess of $35,000 in profit in less than four weeks if Glencore repays the notes by maturity on Oct. 23. Bonds got sucked into the same vortex that sent Glencore shares plunging 30 percent in a matter of hours on Sept 28. Even as yields surged, traders said the turmoil hadn’t shaken the backing of the lenders who financed the industry, suggesting the bonds were a safer bet than the markets had priced in. "The bonds of the trading houses were extremely cheap," said Graham Sharp, an adviser to consultants Oliver Wyman & Co. and co-founder of oil and metals trading house Trafigura. "This was an anomaly."

US junk debt regains high-yield status - (www.ft.com) After years of investor enthusiasm, US high-yield debt is once again living up to its name. Yields on lower quality rated securities have soared since January as investors ask a pivotal question: are they being paid enough for the risk of owning junk-rated bonds? Junk bond yields, which move inversely to price, rose above 8 per cent in October for the first time since 2012 as investors retreated from funds focused on speculative debt, accelerating a four-month sell-off fueled by fears of weaker growth hitting highly indebted companies in the sector. Investors who in years past eagerly sought exposure to the sector against a backdrop of low global interest rates and easy central bank policies, are now heading for the exit. The junk market in the past has often signaled big turning points in risk appetite among investors, and lowly rated companies are finding difficulty securing financing as investors demand greater compensation in the form of higher yields.


European Stocks Fall After ECB Report Dims Prospects of More QE - (www.bloomberg.com)
Canada's Trudeau sweeps to victory, toppling Harper in election
- (www.reuters.com)
Brazil's Opposition to File Key Request to Impeach Rousseff
- (www.bloomberg.com)
For Hedge Funds, a Can’t-Miss Trade Goes Bust
- (online.wsj.com)

The Hottest Deal for Commodity Traders: Buying Their Own Bonds
- (www.bloomberg.com)
Skeptics suggest China's slump deeper than acknowledged
- (finance.yahoo.com)
Leveraged Loan Investors Demand Steepest Discount Since 2011
- (www.bloomberg.com)

No comments: