Thursday, November 19, 2015

Friday November 20 Housing and Economic stories


Energy Default Alarms Get Louder as Pain Seen Lasting Into 2016 - (www.bloomberg.com) Eleven months of depressed oil prices are threatening to topple more companies in the energy industry. Four firms owing a combined $4.8 billion warned this week that they may be at the brink, with Penn Virginia Corp., Paragon Offshore Plc, Magnum Hunter Resources Corp. and Emerald Oil Inc. saying their auditors have expressed doubts that they can continue as going concerns. Falling oil prices are squeezing access to credit, they said. And everyone from Morgan Stanley to Goldman Sachs Group Inc. is predicting that energy prices won’t rebound anytime soon. The industry is bracing for a wave of failures as investors that were stung by bets on an improving market earlier this year try to stay away from the sector. Barclays Plc analysts say that will cause the default rate among speculative-grade companies to double in the next year. Marathon Asset Management is predicting default rates among high-yield energy companies will balloon to as high as 25 percent cumulatively in the next two to three years if oil remains below $60 a barrel.

Chinese Defaults Spread as Cement Maker to Miss Bond Payment - (www.bloomberg.comThe buzzing mobile phone foretold trouble. During an interview last month at the posh Shangri-La Hotel in Hong Kong, Henry Li stepped aside four times in an hour to take calls. Creditors were frantically trying to connect with the chief financial officer of China Shanshui Cement Group Ltd., and they wanted to know one thing: Was his company about to default? "Honestly speaking, banks are very worried about us, as you can tell from the fact that I’ve received many calls,” said Li, sitting alongside Shanshui Chairman Zhang Bin as they discussed the firm’s predicament with Bloomberg on Oct. 14. On Wednesday, the creditors got their answer. Shanshui, reeling from China’s economic slowdown and a shareholder campaign to oust Zhang, said it will fail to pay 2 billion yuan ($314 million) of bonds due on Nov. 12, making it at least the sixth Chinese company to default in the local note market this year. Analysts predict it won’t be the last as President Xi Jinping’s government shows an increased willingness to allow corporate failures amid a drive to reduce overcapacity in industries including raw-materials and real estate.

Portugal Bonds Hurt by Politics May Face QE Eligibility Headwind - (www.bloomberg.com) Portugal’s government bonds, the worst performers in the euro zone over the past month, face another hurdle with a potential credit-rating downgrade that may see them excluded from the European Central Bank’s asset-buying program. For Portugal’s bonds to be eligible for purchase, the nation must be rated investment grade by at least one major ratings company. It has already been junked by Moody’s Investors Service, Standard & Poor’s and Fitch Ratings. But the country still holds that crucial investment-grade status by DBRS Ltd. The Toronto-based company is scheduled to review its position on Friday, raising the possibility Portugal could lose a crucial source of support. “The fear is that if DBRS downgraded them, it would trigger Portugal falling out of the eligibility,” said David Schnautz, a London-based interest-rates strategist at Commerzbank AG. “It’s obviously something that investors have to brace for. It’s a low-probability but high-impact event.”

Dizzying Ride May Be Ending for Start-Ups - (www.nytimes.com) The worth of hot technology start-ups seemed for years to go in only one direction: straight up. Now there are signs of growing unease over the dizzying valuations of some of the most richly priced private companies. The latest sign has emerged with one such favorite, Snapchat, being discounted 25 percent by one of its more recent investors, Fidelity, the mutual fund giant. Another start-up, Dropbox, the widely used file storage service, was devalued by the giant asset manager BlackRock this year. The funds’ markdowns may tap the brakes on a fast-growing market. Investors, in the hopes of getting a piece of the next Facebook or Google, have been pouring billions of dollars into young private companies.

Coming to a Balance Sheet Near You: $2 Trillion Leases - (online.wsj.com) Some of America’s best-known companies—names such as AT&T Inc., CVS Health Corp. and Delta Air Lines Inc.—likely will soon have to effectively boost the debt they report on their balance sheets by tens of billions of dollars. The total possible impact for all companies: as much as $2 trillion. Within a few years, companies may have to add to their books the cost of many leases for real estate, aircraft and other items that aren’t already carried there. U.S. rule makers are set to vote Wednesday on whether to approve in principle long-awaited new rules requiring companies to make that addition, though the move wouldn’t take effect until at least 2018.




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