An
82% Chance Of Collapse For Venezuela - (www.businessinsider.com)
Collapsing oil prices have a turned a difficult economic situation into a dire
one. Oil exports brought in 60% of the country's revenue. And now, according
the UBS, Venezuela has an 82% chance of collapsing within a year. The country
will no longer be able to make payments to foreign investors without oil
revenue as it was. Economist Rafael del Fuente wrote in a recent note: By the
government's own recognition, the economy contracted by 4% in the first
three quarters of 2014;
inflation is running at close to 65%; the fiscal deficit has shot up above 15% of GDP by most estimates; and the black market exchange rate is trading at VEF180 to the dollar, almost 30 times higher than the official Cencoex rate. Wall Street is watching and waiting, which is why the spread on Venezuela's 5 year credit default swap — basically debt insurance — has spiked. You just don't see charts like this everyday people.
inflation is running at close to 65%; the fiscal deficit has shot up above 15% of GDP by most estimates; and the black market exchange rate is trading at VEF180 to the dollar, almost 30 times higher than the official Cencoex rate. Wall Street is watching and waiting, which is why the spread on Venezuela's 5 year credit default swap — basically debt insurance — has spiked. You just don't see charts like this everyday people.
Why the currency wars are likely to hit the stock market – (www.marketwatch.com) I often write about how we’re living in a time of escalating currency wars. The Swiss National Bank just used their counterweight trebuchet to launch a projectile into the currency markets as they announced that they will no longer peg their Swiss franc to the euro at a set rate. It isn’t often you see a chart of the U.S. dollar versus any other currency down 13% in an hour. Such is the case today with the U.S. dollar versus the the Swiss franc. This kind of sudden dislocation in major global currency exchanges present a major challenge to the status quo. It creates confusion and stock markets don’t like confusion. Remember that it isn’t the direction of currency moves that matter as much as the speed and magnitude in which changes in those moves happen. And today, these intraday currency charts look more like weekly charts than the 1-hour charts they actually are. Net net, these currency dislocations are probably not bullish for stocks near-term, though it is bullish for gold near-term and long-term.
Hedge
Funds Got Whacked By The Swiss Franc Rally - (www.businessinsider.com) The
damage from the Swiss franc's sharp moves comes as a blow for macro hedge fund
managers nursing wounds from nearly four years of mediocre performance. "You
have these massive policies which forced all investors to invest with the
policy and then they remove the policy and everyone is left high and dry,"
said Chris Morrison, strategist for the $550 million Omni Macro Fund. Data
from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission released on Friday
showed net short positions of 24,171 contracts on the Swiss franc, the largest
since June 2013. Adding in 662 short option contracts gives a combined position
of 24,833 contracts or $3.5 billion at the current rate of around 0.90 franc to
the dollar. Global macro hedge funds that use fundamental analysis to bet on
the financial markets and representing $288 billion in assets on the Lyxor
platform had net short position of 2.6 percent, indicating a loss for them
given the currency move.
Md. couple investigated for letting children, 6 and 10, walk neighborhood alone - (www.washingtontimes.com) Rafi, 10, and his sister, Dvora, 6, are typically allowed to walk to the two local playgrounds near their house, to a nearby 7-Eleven for snacks or to a public library about three-quarters of a mile away, the parents said. “They have proven they are responsible,” Mrs. Meitiv told The Washington Post. “They’ve developed these skills.” But on Dec. 20, when Rafi and Dvora were walking home from Woodside Park, police officers approached them after receiving a call from someone reporting unattended children in the area. The children normally carry a laminated card with parent contact information that says: “I am not lost. I am a free-range kid,” the mother said, but they didn’t have it on them that day, The Post reported. The children were loaded into a police car and driven home. Their father said that when police arrived they demanded to see his identification and warned him of the potential danger he was putting his children in, The Post reported. Montgomery County Child Protective Services reportedly showed up at the home hours later to investigate further. “They came and they interviewed kids at school without our permission or knowledge. And when they were talking to them, they were painting a picture of a world that is very scary,” Mr. Meitiv told the CBS affiliate. Child Protective Services could not address this specific case but did point to Maryland law, which defines child neglect as failure to provide proper care and supervision of a child, the station reported.
Ukraine President Signs Mobilization Decree: 50,000 To Be Drafted- (www.zerohedge.com) And with a stroke of his pen, Ukraine's President Petro Poroshenko signs a decree that mobilizes up to 50,000 "health men and women" aged 25 to 60 to the frontlines in Eastern Ukraine... As UA Today reports, 50 000 servicemen will be drafted to the frontline in eastern Ukraine. Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko has issued a decree mobilising 50,000 servicemen to the frontline in eastern Ukraine. Those eligible will receive notice papers calling them to service as soon as the Ukrainian parliament approves the measure. The Ministry of Defense plans to draft healthy men and women, preferably with military experience. Tank operators, artillerymen, reconnaissance scouts and messengers aged 25 to 60 are in high demand. Volodymyr Talalay, Major General: "We are not planning to draft untrained men for positions that require military efficiency. Military leaders are looking for those who have already been in the army or those who can serve within civilian professions." Combat trainings for servicemen will take 10-15 days. Ministry of Defense officials say this timeframe is adequate to acquire combat skills and replace those soldiers who will be rotated out.
No comments:
Post a Comment