Wednesday, January 14, 2015

Thursday January 15 Housing and Economic stories


On This Day In History, The Baltic Dry Index Has Never Been Lower - (www.zerohedge.com)  Must be over-supply too, right? Just like oil prices... The Baltic Dry Index - which apparently is only relevant when it is rising - has never been lower at this time of year. Perhaps GDP expectations, bond yields, crude oil prices, and credit risk are on to something about the global economy after all?
Perhaps GDP expectations, bond yields, crude oil prices, and credit risk are on to something about the global economy after all?

Obama to reduce FHA mortgage premium rate to spur buying - (www.denverpost.com)  First-time homebuyers who obtain government-backed loans would benefit from an Obama administration move to lower mortgage insurance premiums. Under the plan, the Federal Housing Administration will reduce its annual mortgage insurance premiums by half a percentage point, to 0.85 percent. The White House said Wednesday the reduction means new homebuyers would pay $900 less a year than they would without the change. The rate-drop announcement will be a centerpiece of President Barack Obama's trip to Phoenix on Thursday. Obama is making stops in Michigan, Arizona and Tennessee this week, drawing attention to the themes he intends to highlight in his State of the Union address Jan. 20. The lower insurance fees would have a modest impact on sales, with the administration forecasting an increase of as much as 250,000 over the next three years. That pales in size to the broader market, representing an increase of less than 2 percent a year in projected sales. Homeowners who refinance into an FHA mortgage also would benefit from the change. The White House estimated that more than 800,000 homeowners could save.

Too Little Inflation Is A Bigger Risk Than Too Much Inflation Right Now - (www.businessinsider.com) The highly anticipated post-meeting statement from the Federal Reserve (Fed) on December 17 brought about an intense debate over the semantics of “considerable time” and “patient,” but the central bank revealed no specific timeline for an interest rate increase even as it prepares the financial markets for the normalization of monetary policy. However, we take the Fed language to mean a continuation of monetary accommodation, at least in the interim. But something else stood out in the Fed’s statement: the many references to inflation, which emphasized the central bank’s concerns about the lack of healthy price growth. Inflation is a classic “Goldilocks” economic situation. You don’t want too much, or too little, but just the right amount.

Renters' paychecks hit hard in priciest cities - (www.cnbc.com)  San Francisco may be the priciest U.S. city for renters, but apartment dwellers in New York and Los Angeles pay an even bigger share of their paychecks—more than half—to the landlord each month. Renters in St Louis, meanwhile, spend less than a quarter of their paychecks on housing, according to the latest data from real estate website Trulia. And most renters in the priciest cities shell out an even bigger share of their paychecks, as rent hikes continue to outpace salary increases. Last year, renters saw the biggest hits in Denver (up 14 percent), Oakland (12 percent), San Francisco (11 percent) and New York (9 percent). The increase in rents are being fueled, in part, by strong demand for apartments thanks to a stronger job market that is helping millennials stranded by the Great Recession in their parents' basements move out on their own, according to Trulia Chief Economist Jed Kolko.

Can Sears be saved? CEO's REIT plan faces complications - (business.financialpost.com) Tax rules and concerns about Sears Holdings Corp’s tenuous financial condition may force CEO Eddie Lampert to do a complicated dance as he plans to spin off the retailer’s best real estate into a separate trust. Last month, the troubled retailer and its chief executive disclosed plans to form a real estate investment trust (REIT) that would acquire as many as 300 Sears stores and lease them back to the retailer. This, CreditSights estimated, could help Sears raise US$2.6 billion, providing a critical cash injection. But based on a Reuters analysis of the proposed REIT and interviews with commercial real estate experts, potentially large ownership stakes held by Lampert and others could conflict with U.S. tax rules designed to prevent small groups from having voting control of a REIT. Sears’ financial woes might also create complications, legal experts said. Sears has lost more than US$6 billion over the past four years, and some credit analysts have warned of a possible bankruptcy in the long run. Fitch Ratings, for example, warns the retailer could run out of money in 2017. Given that risk, the spinoff must be structured so it could stand up to scrutiny under federal provisions discouraging certain transfers of major assets prior to any bankruptcy.






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