Thursday, March 20, 2014

Friday March 21 Housing and Economic stories


Get ready for the Dow at 6,000 by 2016: Pro - (www.cnbc.com) The stock market is in a bubble that is setting up for a major crash, with the Dow Jones industrial average likely to hit the 17,000 level within the next few weeks before plummeting to around 6,000 by 2016, author and market observer Harry S. Dent Jr. told CNBC on Monday. "I think we see another correction, crash, that is larger than the last one," said Dent, author of The Demographic Cliff, during an interview on "Closing Bell." "I think this will be the most dangerous period in people's lives in investing."  The fundamental problem plaguing global economies is a shift in demographics, Dent said. An aging work force will soon retire, outnumbering younger workers, thereby draining government entitlements, he said. Despite government stimulus, younger workers tend to spend less, too, Dent continued. "Generations spend and then they don't," Dent said. "Governments are fighting that with massive stimulus, and it shows why the economy is so weak with so much stimulus. Demographics is the only way you can explain that."

S&P's rise underpinned by borrowed money - (www.ft.com) US stocks are being propelled to fresh highs by investors borrowing a record amount of money in a high stakes gamble that is raising concerns over the potential for a sharp correction in the five-year bull run. With the S&P 500 registering a fresh closing peak of 1,859.45 last week, margin debt – money borrowed to buy stocks – hit a record level in January, according to data from the New York Stock Exchange. Peaks in the use of borrowed money have in the past been a precursor to big bear markets and viewed as a warning sign. Though margin debt has been hitting record highs in recent months, it now stands at $451bn on the NYSE, a rise of more than 20 per cent over the past year and above 2007’s peak of $381bn. Five years ago it hit a low of $173bn. In past market peaks, excessive levels of margin debt exacerbated the subsequent slide in stocks, as investors were forced to quickly sell their holdings as prices fell, sparking a nasty downward spiral.

Russian assets plummet on Putin's threat to invade Ukraine - (www.reuters.com) Russian stocks and bonds plummeted on Monday and the central bank hiked interest rates, burning its way through as much as $12 billion of its reserves to prop up the rouble as markets took fright at the escalating tension with neighboring Ukraine. Investors were ditching all Russian assets alike - the rouble, stocks and bonds. The market capitalization of the Russian rouble-denominated MICEX stock index fell some $60 billion since Friday, more than the $51 billion Russia spent on the Winter Olympics in Sochi last month. The Ukrainian hryvnia has firmed since curbs were imposed on deposit withdrawals last week, but Ukrainian eurobonds fell sharply. Russia's central bank unexpectedly raised its key lending rate - the one-week repurchasing agreement - to 7 percent from 5.5 percent, in an attempt to stem capital flight. The central bank did not mention Ukraine in its statement, but said the decision to raise rates was aimed at preventing "risks to inflation and financial stability associated with the recently increased level of volatility in the financial markets".

Realtors Directly Corrupting US Law in DC, Again - (www.opensecrets.org) "Disappointing." That's how both the National Association of Realtors and the Private Equity Growth Capital Council have described Rep. Dave Camp's (R-Mich.) proposal to overhaul the tax code.  In his quest to simplify the code for families, Camp, chairman of the powerful Ways and Means Committee, would trim some longstanding perks benefiting the real estate and private equity and investment industries: the mortgage interest and carried interest deductions. A tribe of lobbyists is pressing conservatives to snuff Camp's proposal, threatening to withhold precious campaign dollars. The mortgage interest deduction allows homeowners to reduce their tax obligation by subtracting the interest they've paid on their mortgage. Tampering with it could hurt home sales, and thus the bottom line of real estate agents and the many others who depend on the housing market for their livelihoods.  Cuts to the carried interest deduction, which allows private equity managers to pay a lower tax rate than other workers on about one-third of their income, would only affect a tiny -- but generally very wealthy -- proportion of the population. 

Hotel hermit got $17M to make way for 15 Central Park West - (www.nypost.com) In 2004, developers Will and Arthur Zeckendorf bought the famed Mayflower Hotel and several adjacent lots on the Upper West Side for just over $400 million, with the goal of creating the city’s most exclusive residential building — 15 Central Park West. Only one thing stood in their way: A 73-year-old recluse named Herb Sukenik, who refused to move from the hotel. In this excerpt from his new book, “House of Outrageous Fortune” (Altria Books), author Michael Gross reveals the most expensive eviction in New York City history.  After buying the Mayflower Hotel, the Zeckendorf brothers were legally responsible for buying out and even relocating those living in rent-controlled apartments in the top floors — residents whose leases prevented them from being evicted. They turned to Michael Grabow, a relocation lawyer, “to get the last four bachelors out,” he says. “They’d been there 30 to 35 years each, in tiny little rooms.” One was 98 and had relatives in Mexico. “After 35 years, he checks out with a single suitcase,” Will Zeckendorf says. “Plus a million-dollar check,” Arthur Zeckendorf adds, laughing grimly.





No comments: