Sunday, January 5, 2014

Monday January 6 Housing and Economic stories


Italy’s president fears violent insurrection in 2014 but offers no remedy - (www.telegraph.co.uk) Events in Italy are turning serious. President Giorgio Napolitano has warned of “widespread social tension and unrest” in 2014 as the Long Slump drags on. Those living on the margins are being drawn into “indiscriminate and violent protest, a sterile lurch towards total opposition”. His latest speech is a veritable Jeremiad. Thousands of companies are on the “brink of collapse”. Great masses of the working people are on the dole or at risk of losing their jobs. Very high rates of youth unemployment (41pc) are leading to dangerous alienation. “The recession is still biting hard, and there is a pervasive sense that it will be difficult to escape, to find a way back to full growth,” he said.

Mortgage applications plummet amid uncertainty - (www.cnbc.com) Mortgage applications fell 5.5 percent in the past week, to the lowest level in more than 12 years, according to a weekly report from the Mortgage Bankers Association released Wednesday. The plunge follows a slight increase in interest rates. Refinance and home purchase applications dropped 4 percent and 6 percent, respectively, as investors wait for word from the Federal Reserve on whether it will reduce its bond-buying activity. "It is a discordant note compared to the more positive data we are seeing in other parts of the economy, including the job market reports and industrial production," said Michael Fratantoni, the association's vice president of research and economics. "Credit tightening could be part of it, rates another part." The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed mortgages with conforming loan balances ($417,000 or less) rose to 4.62 percent from 4.61 percent, a small move but the highest level since September. The average rate for a five-year adjustable rate mortgage jumped to 3.20 percent from 3.11 percent. More borrowers have been heading to ARMs lately, seeking lower rates amid rising housing prices.

France fights back against German 'Sick Man of Europe' - (www.telegraph.co.uk) The overriding strategic story in Europe today is the breakdown of Franco-German condominium. The two great nations have together run the EU on a foundation of equality since the 1950s, always finding some way to bridge the chasm between North and South. It was stretched a little after France lost Algeria – a French Department, not a colony – and with it lost population parity. But that hardly mattered as long as Germany wished to tuck behind France, usually letting Paris take the lead. It was stretched a great deal further with the Reunification of Germany, driven home a few years later when a Brandeburg "Ossi" who spoke fluent Russian – but no French – became Chancellor.

Realtors Just Love Those Government Housing Market Subsidies - (www.chicagonow.com) I guess it's just the American way. Always have your hand out for the next government subsidy and the politicians in Washington are always too willing to cooperate in response to powerful lobbying organizations. The National Association of Realtors (NAR) is no exception when it comes to begging for government housing market subsidies. With around 1,000,000 members the NAR is the world's largest professional organization and has approximately a $155 MM budget. And look how much of that budget goes towards influencing the government to subsidize home ownership:
§  Approximately $40 MM to "targeted state and local real estate and homeownership advocacy"
§  Approximately $28 MM to "Government Affairs, Political Affairs, Economics & Research, Regulatory Affairs, RPAC, Public Affairs"
§  And another $35 MM doesn't really go directly to government lobbying but does go towards "advocating for REALTORS® and homeownership" - mostly through advertising

Corn Plummeting Spurs Talk of 80s U.S. Farmland Bust - (www.bloomberg.com) Din Tai Fung, a restaurant in Shanghai’s Xintiandi district, is famous for its steamed pork dumplings. The pigs that keep those dumplings on the table are fattened with corn -- much of it imported from the U.S. American farmers have prospered during a three-year boom in corn and cropland prices. As values have soared since 2011, farmers bought more acres and upgraded their harvesters to produce a record corn crop of almost 14 billion bushels in 2013. Nothing better shows the fertile times than investment infarm equipment. Sales of self-propelled combines, including an $850,000 John Deere (DE) model with iPod system, navigational equipment and heated seats and an attachment that harvests the corn, jumped 40 percent in November. Now, as corn prices start to decline, bankers and agricultural economists are predicting a slowdown in farmland prices that could turn into a bust. “I can see the fear in farmers’ eyes when they think of all the moving pieces around the world gutting the value of next year’s crop,” said David Kohl, an agricultural economist and president of consulting firm AgriVisions, who last week spoke at several farming conferences in northern Nebraska. “Most of them know the boom in corn prices and farmland prices is coming to a screeching halt.”





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