Tuesday, December 17, 2013

Wednesday December 18 Housing and Economic stories


Puerto Rico, with at least $70 billion in debt, confronts a rising economic misery - (www.washingtonpost.com) Boxes and wooden crates filled with household items bound for the U.S. mainland are stacked high in the Rosa del Monte moving company’s cavernous warehouse, evidence of the historic rush of people abandoning this beautiful island. The economy here has been in recession for nearly eight years, crimping tax revenue and pushing the jobless rate to nearly 15 percent. Meanwhile, the government is burdened by staggering debt, spawning comparisons to bankrupt Detroit and forcing lawmakers to severely slash pensions, cut government jobs and raise taxes in a furious effort to avert default. The implications are serious for Americans outside Puerto Rico both because a taxpayer bailout would be expensive and a default would be far more disruptive than Detroit’s record bankruptcy filing in July. Officials in San Juan and Washington are adamant that a federal bailout is not on the table, but the situation is being closely monitored by the White House, which recently named an advisory team to help Puerto Rican officials navigate the crisis.

Ukraine protesters urge general strike as markets hit currency - (www.bloomberg.com) Ukrainian protesters blockaded the main government building on Monday, seeking to force President Viktor Yanukovich from office with a general strike after hundreds of thousands demonstrated against his decision to abandon an EU integration pact. Demonstrations on Saturday and Sunday, which saw violent clashes with the police, drew as many as 350,000 people, the biggest public rally in the ex-Soviet state since the "Orange revolution" against sleaze and electoral fraud nine years ago. Prime Minister Mykola Azarov accused the opposition of planning to seize the parliament, while Yanukovich appealed for calm, saying protests should be peaceful and law-abiding. "Any bad peace is better than a good war," Yanukovich said in his first comment on the mass unrest over the weekend. "Everyone must observe the laws of our state."

Unilever CEO Says Emerging Market Slowdown to Last for Years  - (www.bloomberg.com) Unilever (UNA) Chief Executive Officer Paul Polman said the economic slowdown in emerging markets is here to stay as many countries need to enact structural reforms to adjust to new conditions after the boom of recent years. “They are still relatively stronger economies, but still fragile,” Polman said. “And you see that growth coming off now a little bit, obviously not being helped either by lower demand coming from Europe and the U.S. This will last a few years. And it will only be corrected if some of the reforms have been made in these places.” Unilever, the world’s second-largest consumer-goods maker, said Sept. 30 that slowing growth in emerging markets would weigh on second-half sales. The company gets more than half its revenue from such economies in countries such as India and China. So-called underlying sales rose 3.2 percent in the third quarter, the weakest increase in four years and a slowdown from the first-half’s 5 percent pace, the Anglo-Dutch maker of Lipton tea reported Oct. 24.

Detroit Retirees Got Extra Interest After Their Guaranteed 7.9% - (www.bloomberg.com) Edna Love’s 58 years as a nurse for Detroit’s health department earned her a $2,000-a-month pension when she retired in 2011. That pales next to the $1 million she got from a separate city-sponsored savings plan where she put 5 percent of her pay year after year. The annuity savings program within the Detroit General Retirement System created a class of privileged retirees in a city where pensions average about $19,000 a year, according to municipal records. The accounts got $756.2 million from the pension fund during 1985 through 2007 as extra interest, atop a guaranteed 7.9 percent backed by public money.  “Where else could you earn that kind of money today?” Love, 83, said in a telephone interview from a retirement home in Saline, Michigan. “At the time the city was doing well, we weren’t worried about bankruptcy. It was a good place to work.” The use of money from the $2.6 billion pension to bolster the savings accounts has drawn scrutiny from Kevyn Orr, the state-appointed emergency manager, whose plan to reduce Detroit pensions through the largest U.S. municipal bankruptcy stirs outrage among 20,000 retirees. Orr may recoup what the fund paid to the savings program, said his spokesman, Bill Nowling.

We Are On The Eve Of A Deflationary Shock - (www.zerohedge.com) In the aftermath of Ray Dalio's conversion to an inflationista earlier this year (even if he has since once again been pushing a deflationary agenda when he once again went long Treasurys in late September as Zero Hedge reported previously), which promptly got such permanent deflationists as David Rosenberg to change their multi-year tune, it seemed as if there was nobody left in the deflationary camp. Which, implicitly meant Bernanke was winning as the world's expectations for a return to inflation were rising (remember: hyperinflation has nothing to do with inflation per se, and everything to do with loss of confidence in a currency, even if formerly a reserve), and also meant the Fed would need to do less to further its reflationary agenda. Alas, as the Taper Tantrum and the shock upon its subsequent withdrawal showed, not to mention the recent outright disinflation in Europe, any rumors that the Fed was back in control were wildly exagerated, and here we find ourselves, entering the last month of 2013 with loud speculation thatnot only will the BOJ increase its own QE but the ECB itself will have no choice but to join the QE party (even as the Fed may or may not taper although it is increasingly looking likely that with an economy this late in the cycle, Yellen will simply forego tapering altogether, and may even navigate Bernanke's chopper) in order to stoke even more inflation as the current amount was, surprise, insufficient. We ignore all discussion of what such a reckless action would mean for the credibility of fiat, although we remind readers that right now both the US and Japan monetize 70% of their gross bond issuance, and thus deficit.





No comments: