Tuesday, October 8, 2013

Wednesday October 9 Housing and Economic stories


U.S. disability rolls swell in a rough economy - (www.washingtonpost.com) The huge mills along the Penobscot River roared virtually nonstop for more than a century, turning the dense Maine forests into paper and lifting the thousands of men who did the hot and often backbreaking work into the middle class. But the mills have struggled in recent years, shedding thousands of jobs. Now this area, whose well-paying jobs provided an economic foothold for generations of blue-collar workers, has become a place where an unusually large share of the unemployed are seeking economic shelter on federal disability rolls. Between 2000 and 2012, the number of people in Penobscot County receiving Social Security disability benefits skyrocketed, rising from 4,475 to 7,955 — or nearly one in 12 of the county’s adults between the ages of 18 and 64, according to Social Security statistics. The fast expansion of disability here is part of a national trend that has seen the number of former workers receiving benefits soar from just over 5 million to 8.8 million between 2000 and 2012. An additional 2.1 million dependent children and spouses also receive benefits. The crush of new recipients is putting unsustainable financial pressure on the program. Federal officials project that the program will exhaust its trust fund by 2016 — 20 years before the trust fund that supports Social Security’s old-age benefits is projected to run dry.

Puerto Rico is living an impoverished debt nightmare reminiscent of southern Europe or Detroit - (www.qz.com) Puerto Rico's rap sheet isn't so different from that of many troubled European countries. It's been in a recession since 2006--longer even than Greece. And like many euro zone countries, it can't inflate its way out of its problems because it uses the US dollar. ... Yields on Puerto Rican municipal bonds have doubled from a year ago, as investors have grown worried that the little US territory won't be able to pay off its massive debt pile. And if you're an American the drama could hit close to home; there's a decent chance that your pension fund has some Puerto Rican bonds in its portfolio. Detroit's July bankruptcy hasn't helped--the city's potentially huge losses for bondholders are making investors in the entire asset class jittery. Yields on Puerto Rican municipal bonds have doubled from a year ago, as investors have grown worried that the little US territory won’t be able to pay off its massive debt pile. And if you’re an American the drama could hit close to home; there’s a decent chance that your pension fund has some Puerto Rican bonds in its portfolio. Detroit’s July bankruptcy hasn’t helped—the city’s potentially huge losses for bondholders are making investors in the entire asset class jittery.

Italy's Oldest Bank Monte Paschi "BAILS-IN" BONDHOLDERS TO TUNE OF $650 MILLION! - (www.silverdoctors.com)   While the Monte Paschi bail-in for now is limited to Tier 1 bondholders, the bank made it clear it likely will not be able to continue paying Tier 2 bondholders much longer either: ... The cost of insuring against losses on Monte Paschi's subordinated debt rose, with credit-default swaps covering 10 million euros of the bank's junior bonds for five years costing 2.1 million euros in advance and 500,000 euros annually, according to data provider CMA. That signals a 49.5 percent probability of default within that time.

Fed reveals weak spot in superhero powers - (www.ft.com) Superman had issues with Kryptonite. For Achilles, it was his heel. With central bankers, is it communicating with markets? The US Federal Reserve startled investors round the globe this week by deciding not to start scaling back its $85bn a month of asset purchases, or quantitative easing. Bond and share prices jumped sharply on the prospect of unexpectedly undiminished Fed largesse. But even as they pocketed gains, investors wondered if they had misunderstood Ben Bernanke, Fed chairman. Based on hints dropped since May, the consensus view had been for a $10bn to $15bn reduction in the pace of purchases. Central banks have sought to increase the effectiveness of their communication during the years of financial crisis. By extending their influence over markets’ expectations of future interest rates, they hope to leverage their superhero powers. But the Fed’s last minute hesitation was a reality check.

Bears Retreating as European Shorts Drop $80 Billion to 2006 Low - (www.bloomberg.com) The retreat by European bears is turning into a rout as equity traders reduce bets against the region’s stocks by about $80 billion to the lowest level in at least seven years. Borrowed shares of Euro Stoxx 50 Index (SX5E) companies, an indication of wagers against equities, have fallen to 1.7 percent of the total outstanding from 3.2 percent two years ago and 24 percent at the height of the financial crisis, according to data from Markit, the London-based research firm. Bullish bets on Europe have reached the most since 2007 in a Bank of America Corp. survey of money managers who oversee $518 billion. Investors are regaining confidence, squeezing pessimists who say the economy remains sluggish outside of Germany and point to record-low trading volume as a lack of conviction in the Euro Stoxx’s 61 percent rally of the past two years. Besides gains in stocks from Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA toRenault SA (RNO), yields on Spanish and Italian bonds have declined to a two-year low compared with German bunds and the euro has strengthened 4.6 percent to $1.35 in the past six months.







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