Sunday, March 31, 2013

Monday April 1 Housing and Economic stories


TOP STORIES:

Housing crisis deepens for New Yorkers - (www.ft.com) As big investors face bankruptcy or walk away from failed real estate deals, renters are joining the many thousands of homeowners in New York City confronting the impact of the foreclosure crisis. Thousands of tenants in large multi-dwelling buildings face deteriorating conditions and an uncertain future as their landlords are unable to meet debt payments. The massive Stuyvesant Town-Peter Cooper Village complex in lower Manhattan along the East River, consisting of 110 buildings and more than 11,000 apartments, is the largest and most-publicized case, but it is far from the only development affected by the crisis. Stuyvesant Town and Peter Cooper Village have seen the recent collapse of the $5.4 billion deal that brought in new owners only three years ago. According to the city’s Department of Housing Preservation and Development, however, there are more than 100,000 apartments in the city, housing as many as 300,000 people and perhaps more, that are in buildings that are “underwater,” with their landlords owing more than their current worth.

The Rise of Part-Time Work - (www.nytimes.com) One of the more unsettling trends in this recovery has been the rise of part-time work. We are nowhere near recovering the jobs lost in the recession, and the track record looks even worse when you consider that so many of the jobs lost were full time, whereas so many of those gained have been part time. Compared with December 2007, when the recession officially began, there are 5.8 million fewer Americans working full time. In that same period, there has been an increase of 2.8 million working part time. Part-time workers — defined as people who usually work fewer than 35 hours a week — are still a minority of the work force, but their share is growing.

On the Brink in Italy - (www.nytimes.com) - (www.bloomberg.com) Emanuele Tedeschi wiped  sawdust from his hands and gestured around the cavernous woodworking factory that has been in his family for two  generations. The big machines, which used to run overtime carving  custom furnishings for private homes, Roman palazzi  and even the  Vatican,  sat idle on a shop floor nearly devoid of workers. '‘A year and a half ago, the noise from production was so loud that  you had to shout to be heard,’' said Mr. Tedeschi, walking amid  pallets of cherry and other fine woods stacked up and waiting for a purpose. Since a government austerity plan designed to shield Italy from  Europe’s debt crisis took hold last year, the economy has tumbled  into one of worst recessions of any euro zone country, and Mr.  Tedeschi’s orders have all but dried up.  His company, Temeca, is still in business. For now.

Analysis: EU sweats over how to bring Hungary into line - (www.reuters.com) Hungary's decision to change its constitution and limit the power of its top court is a forthright challenge to the European Union, and the uncomfortable truth in Brussels is that little can be done to rein Budapest in quickly. The Hungarian parliament, dominated by supporters of Prime Minister Viktor Orban, has voted overwhelmingly for a set of constitutional amendments that opponents, including the EU, the U.S. government and human rights groups, fear will undermine the country's 24-year-old democracy. The concern is that the enlargement of the EU since 2004 has brought into the bloc central and east European countries that do not fully share the same norms of democracy, human rights and the rule of law as Germany, France, Britain or other powers.

Greece Faces 150,000 Job-Cut Hurdle to Aid Payment: Euro Credit - (www.bloomberg.com) Greece is locked in talks with international creditors in Athens about shrinking the government workforce by enough to keep bailout payments flowing. Identifying redundant positions and putting in place a system that will lead to mandatory exits for about 150,000 civil servants by 2015 is a so-called milestone that will determine whether the country gets a 2.8 billion-euro ($3.6 billion) aid instalment due this month. More than a week of talks on that has so far failed to clinch an agreement. “Public sector job cuts are a major part of the program and they are one of the most politically difficult parts to achieve,” said Holger Schmieding, chief economist at Berenberg Bank in London. “And for the Greek government, which has two left-of-center parties, it is extremely difficult to really implement those job cuts. I’m afraid this will likely stay a point of contention, review after review after review.”




Thursday, March 28, 2013

Friday March 29 Housing and Economic stories


TOP STORIES:

US banks would lose $460bn if crisis struck again - (www.telegraph.co.uk) America's biggest banks would face losses of almost half a trillion dollars should a deep financial crisis and recession hit the US again, regulators said. The losses of $462bn (£308bn) for the country's biggest 18 banks were projected by the Federal Reserve's 'stress test', an annual exercise the central bank now conducts to monitor the resilience of the financial system. The losses would be racked up under the Fed's most extreme scenario in which unemployment climbs to 12pc, house prices tumble 21pc and stock markets halve in value over the next two years. Overall, the Fed said that just one of the banks it tested, Ally Financial, failed to maintain a 5pc Tier 1 common equity ratio - a key measure of a lender's health - under the most extreme scenario.

Rigging the IPO game - (www.nytimes.com) ONCE upon a time, in a very different age, an Internet start-up called eToys went public. The date was May 20, 1999. The offering price had been set at $20, but investors in that frenzied era were so eager for eToys shares that the stock immediately shot up to $78. It ended its first day of trading at $77 a share. The eToys initial public offering raised $164 million, a nice chunk of change for a two-year-old company. But it wasn’t even close to the $600 million-plus the company could have raised if the offering price had more realistically reflected the intense demand for eToys shares. The firm that underwrote the I.P.O. — and effectively set the $20 price — was Goldman Sachs. After the Internet bubble burst — and eToys, starved for cash, went out of business — lawyers representing eToys’ creditors’ committee sued Goldman Sachs over that I.P.O. That lawsuit, believe it or not, is still going on. Indeed, it has taken on an importance that transcends the rise and fall of one small company during the first Internet craze

Italy's credit rating downgraded - (money.cnn.com) Fitch downgraded Italy's credit rating Friday, saying the lack of a stable government in Rome puts the nation's already fragile economy at risk. The No. 3 ratings agency cut Italy's credit rating to BBB+, which is still investment grade. The outlook for Italy is negative, suggesting that further downgrades are possible. Italy has been without clear leadership for weeks as politicians struggle to form a coalition following last month's inconclusive election. Fitch said it is unlikely that a stable government will be formed in the next few weeks. "The increased political uncertainty and non-conducive backdrop for further structural reform measures constitute a further adverse shock to the real economy amidst the deep recession," the agency said.

Jobs numbers are far worse than they look - (www.marketwatch.com) Economists were surprised by the massive "beat" in Friday's reported job numbers. The unemployment rate dropped 0.2 percentage points to 7.7% and the economy allegedly added 236,000 jobs. But is that what really happened? Not really. According to the household survey (on which the unemployment rate is based), the economy added a healthy 170,000 jobs. The survey also shows a tremendous increase of 446,000 part-time jobs. What this means is that the economy actually shed 276,000 full-time jobs. The Bureau of Labor Statistics labeled those 446,000 part-time jobs as "voluntary,” but I am not so sure. 

Credit Boom Warning Sign? Buybacks Hit $1 Trillion - (www.cnbc.com) Corporate buybacks have surpassed the $1 trillion mark for the first time since 2009, a sign the credit boom is reaching new heights, according to Brian Reynolds, chief market strategist at Rosenblatt Securities. "Buyback announcements for the S&P have now topped the trillion dollar mark for this credit boom. And even though this boom is about to begin its fifth year, this past month has seen the fastest growth for buyback announcements, as if CEOs are making up for lost time," Reynolds said in a note on Wednesday. He said buybacks, where a company repurchases its own outstanding shares to reduce the number of shares in the market, have helped boost share prices.






Wednesday, March 27, 2013

Thursday March 28 Housing and Economic stories


TOP STORIES:

Las Vegas: a case study in successful housing market manipulation - (www.ochousingnews.com) Chris and Candace Rodgers wanted to move to a bigger house in a better neighborhood. With the Las Vegas housing market recovering—prices still down over 50 percent from the recent peak—they figured it was the perfect time. Unfortunately, there was nothing to buy. Demand is up somewhat off the lows of the recession, but it’s nowhere close to what it was in the early 00s even prior to the housing bubble mania. Prices are going up because there is no supply on the market. “We looked at a lot of the existing homes, and some of them were bank owned and were in pretty bad shape,” said Chris. “By the time you replaced old stuff, put in new carpet and paint, you’re up to this price, so they might have been bargains for the base price but not after.” Instead, the Rodgers turned to new construction. They bought exactly what they wanted from Pardee Homes, a Los Angeles-based builder with a large footprint in Las Vegas. …

Banks saved, but Europe risks "losing a generation" - (www.reuters.com) Europe has spent hundreds of billions of euros rescuing its banks but may have lost an entire generation of young people in the process, the president of the European Parliament said. Since the region's debt crisis erupted in Greece in late 2009, the European Union has created complex rescue mechanisms to prop up distressed countries and their shaky banking sectors, setting aside a total of 700 billion euros. But little has been done to tackle the devastating social impact of the crisis, with more than 26 million people unemployed across the EU, including one in every two young people in Greece, Spain and parts ofItaly and Portugal. That crippling level of unemployment has led to protests and outbreaks of violence across southern Europe, raising the threat of full-scale social breakdown, including rising crime and anti-immigrant attacks that can further rattle unstable governments.

Nuclear Industry Withers in U.S. as Wind Pummels Prices - (www.bloomberg.com) A glut of government-subsidized wind power may help accomplish a goal some environmentalists have sought for decades: kill off U.S. nuclear power plants while reducing reliance on electricity from burning coal. That’s the assessment of executives and utility experts after the U.S. wind-energy industry went on a $25 billion growth binge in 2012, racing to qualify for a federal tax credit that was set to expire at year’s end. The surge added a record 13,124 megawatts of wind turbines to the nation’s power grid, up 28 percent from 2011. The new wind farms increased financial pressure on traditional generators such as Dominion Resources (D) Inc. and Exelon Corp. (EXC) in their operating regions. That’s because wind energy undercut power prices already driven to 10-year-lows by an abundance of natural gas.

Italy may delay stability plan due to politics - source - (www.reuters.com) Italy may miss an end-of-April deadline to present a annual programme of reforms and fiscal consolidation to European authorities if it cannot form a government in time to sign off on its plans, an Italian diplomat said on Monday. Italian elections on February 24-25 produced an inconclusive result that left no party able to form a government, unsettling investors and reigniting concerns over the economic outlook for the euro zone.

The Coming Housing Collapse: The Fed, Instead Of Lehman, Owns The Mortgage Market - (www.forbes.com) The Fed Chairman’s demeanor froze for a second, after which he continued “it’s acquiring securities in order to reduce interest rates and ease financial conditions in the economy,” tacitly accepting the “money printing” comment. Precisely those purchases of assets to further ease monetary policy are cooking a bigger financial crash than in 2008, Peter Schiff of Euro Pacific Capital argues, and that collapse will start with the housing and bond markets. Paradoxically, the housing market is firing on all cylinders, with homebuilders like KB Home and Lennar trading close to their 52-week highs.  This is irrational exuberance, according to Schiff, as the market is fully subsidized by the Fed.  “The U.S. government is guaranteeing all mortgages, and then buying them up,” explained Schiff, “it’s an artificial market, but the Fed, rather than Lehman Brothers, owns it.” Schiff incredibly agrees with what has become a mainstream opinion: the Fed is behind this rally, both in stocks and bonds, and even in real estate markets.  Yet Schiff differs in that, while most believe the Fed-induced rally has “training wheels” that can later come off, the Fed’s support “are the only wheels” keeping the market going, and removing them will spark a crash.





Tuesday, March 26, 2013

Wednesday March 27 Housing and Economic stories


TOP STORIES:

Real estate agent pleads no contest for house rental scam - (www.mercurynews.com) A 46-year-old San Jose man pleaded no contest to grand theft for a home rental scam that prosecutors say left renters without a place to live, with some of them evicted from homes they thought they had legitimately leased. James Troy Wilson, a real estate agent, reached a plea deal with the Santa Clara County District Attorney's Office that was finalized Wednesday. A no contest plea has the same legal effect as a guilty verdict. Under terms of the deal, when he is sentenced on April 26, he should receive one year in county jail and pay restitution. Prosecutors say in 2011, Wilson found vacant homes in Santa Clara, Contra Costa and San Joaquin counties. He changed the locks, performed minor repairs, listed them on Craigslist, and then rented them without the knowledge of the real owners.

ARRRGH! Entrepreneurs Vent About Obamacare - (www.cnbc.com) "The Affordable Care Act is certainly not affordable for us as a small business in America," said Marsha Newberry, owner of a business in Grand Prairie, Texas, in a post dated last Friday. "I do understand what President Obama is trying to do, however I do not believe this is the correct answer." "This has caused our company to examine our projects and reduce our employee numbers by eliminating the labor intense projects," she added. "All this to avoid mandated healthcare by the federal government. So we slow and or reduce our company growth to avoid complete closure of the company. Neither of these are a good solution for small business in America." A Reno, Nevada, business owner said: "We eliminated six jobs within the company, and we will continue downsizing. We will outsource the functions previously done in house in order to stay afloat. We have no budget for this damage. If that doesn't keep us afloat, we will close our business down by September 30 this year. Eleven more people out of jobs." Meanwhile, the National Federation of Independent Business, which unsuccessfully challenged Obamacare in the U.S. Supreme Court, issued a release Tuesday previewing other testimony that small business owners had planned to provide the House Small Business Committee.

Wells Fargo Fabricated and Altered Mortgage Documents on a Mass Basis cap - (www.nakedcapitalism.com) Over the last two and a half years, Wells Fargo, like most of the major mortgage servicers, claimed that it had a “rigorous system” to insure that mortgage documents were accurate and complete. The reason this mattered was that there was significant evidence to the contrary. Foreclosure defense attorneys found repeatedly that, for securitized mortgages, the servicer or foreclosure mill attorney would present documents to the court that failed to show the borrower’s note (a promissory note) had been transferred properly to the trust. This mattered not only on a borrower level, but indicated that originators of the mortgage securitizations hadn’t bothered transferring the notes properly to the trusts that were to hold them. This raised the ugly specter of what was called “securitization fail,” that investors had been sold securities that they had been told were mortgage backed when they might in practice not be. The robosiging scandal was merely the tip of the iceberg of mortgage and foreclosure problems that resulted from the failure to adhere to the requirements of well-settled state real estate law. The banks maintained that there was nothing wrong with mortgage ownership or with the records. All they had were occasional errors and some unfortunate corners-cutting with affidavits. If they merely re-executed all those robosigned documents, all would be well.

Italian Banks’ Bad Loans Seen Rising as Gridlock Hampers Growth - (www.bloomberg.com) UniCredit SpA (UCG) and Intesa Sanpaolo SpA (ISP)Italy’s biggest banks, may struggle to boost profit as political gridlock threatens to increase borrowing costs, worsen an economic contraction and drive up bad loans. The Italian benchmark 10-year bond yield climbed as much as 0.44 percentage point and an index of the country’s financial shares dropped as much as 11 percent after last week’s general election left Italy’s largest political parties groping to form a government amid a four-way parliamentary split. The disarray may impede economic growth as the longest recession in 20 years and tougher rules from regulators, including the Bank of Italy, are already forcing banks to set aside more money against doubtful loans, said Jacopo Ceccatelli, a partner at JC & Associati SIM, a Milan-based financial advisory firm. Banco Popolare SC (BP), Italy’s No. 4 bank by assets, said March 4 it will report a bigger loss for 2012 than analysts estimated because of higher losses at its consumer credit unit.

Stock Run Will End Badly This Year: Marc Faber - (www.cnbc.comEchoing comments made on CNBC earlier this week by Stanley Druckenmiller, founder of hedge fund Duquesne Capital, Faber said that it will end badly for stocks. "But unlike Stan, I believe it will end badly this year," Faber said. He sees two possible scenarios. Either a 20 percent correction for stocks and then a move higher, or a scenario that is similar to 1987 or 2000 when stocks rise strongly early in the year only to drop sharply. Faber has been calling for gold to outperform stocks, but acknowledges that the yellow metal has been in a correction. "I'd rather buy something that is relatively depressed than something that is relatively high," he said.





Monday, March 25, 2013

Tuesday March 26 Housing and Economic stories


TOP STORIES:

Menlo Park may have to pay $400K for house it can resell for only 285K - (www.mercurynews.com) A house purchased by a couple through Menlo Park's affordable housing program and then refinanced with loans exceeding $1 million has created a legal nightmare for the city. The city may have to spend $400,000 to buy back the house. And the most it can resell it for is $285,000, under the program's rules. The city council tonight is to consider paying the sum and authorizing City Attorney Bill McClure and City Manager Alex McIntyre to settle a lawsuit Menlo Park filed against Theresa and Jeremy Salcedo in 2009 to retake the two-story home at 25 Riordan Place without assuming the couple's debt. Under Menlo Park's Below Market Rate (BMR) Housing Program, qualified buyers can get a house at a substantially reduced price. But they cannot resell the home at market rate, and they must obtain the city's permission to refinance. In addition, owners are responsible for notifying lenders that the property is part of the affordable housing program. A few months after the Salcedos bought the home in August 2008, a former city employee sought to correct the original BMR agreement by adding the name of a party who helped them buy the house, McClure said. However, the employee neglected to include a legal description of the property with the updated documents and used the wrong BMR form, McClure said. Compounding the error, a title company neglected to note on the revised title that the home was a BMR unit, as required. So unless the Salcedos told the lenders, there would be no way for them to know the reduced market value of the home.

Monte Paschi's spokesman found dead: sources - (www.reuters.com) The spokesman of Monte Paschi di Siena found dead on Wednesday was under pressure over an investigation into alleged corruption and fraud that has rocked the world's oldest bank, reporters who knew him said. David Rossi, born in 1961, was found dead at the bank's Siena headquarters, lying beneath an open window overlooking a back street outside the building, a restored 14th century fortress. Prosecutors in Siena are investigating whether Rossi, known as a reserved and serious professional, committed suicide, a judicial source said on Thursday. "He was a very serious person, under pressure over a judicial probe which had touched on him through a recent police search, even if he was not under investigation," Andrea Greco, reporter at la Republica said on the newspaper's website.

Firms Race to Raise Cash - (online.wsj.com) Companies are taking advantage of the stock market's record-breaking rally to raise funds. The rush to sell shares is a sign of U.S. corporations' desire to boost growth by investing and acquiring rivals after years spent licking the wounds inflicted by the financial crisis. As the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed toward its peak, which it reached on Tuesday and topped again on Wednesday, companies ranging from home builders to seed growers have tapped into investors' appetite for shares. Public companies have raised $35.1 billion in secondary offerings of stock in the U.S. since the beginning of the year, according to data provider Dealogic, marking the most-robust start to any year since 2000.

Norway Cracks Down on Mortgage Debt to Fight Bubble Risk - (www.bloomberg.com) Norway’s financial regulator is throwing its weight behind a government proposal to force banks to assign higher loss probabilities to mortgage assets as the nation looks for ways to cool its overheated property market. The Financial Supervisory Authority in Oslo will add stricter risk-weight recommendations to a raft of measures, including curbs on covered bond issuance, all designed to prevent a repeat of the 1990s crisis that sent Norway’s real estate prices plunging 40 percent and left households with unsustainable debt loads.  “The FSA shares the ministry’s concern for household indebtedness and soaring house prices,” Morten Baltzersen, who heads the watchdog, said yesterday in a telephone interview. “We agree with the ministry that the risk weights on house loans need to be increased.”

SNB Spent $199 Billion in 2012 on Enforcing Its Franc Cap - (www.bloomberg.com) The Swiss central bank spent 10 times as much in 2012 as it did the year before to defend the currency cap it implemented to shield the economy. The Swiss National Bank (SNBN) bought 188 billion francs ($199 billion) in foreign currencies from a wide range of counterparties in Switzerland and abroad, the Zurich-based central bank said in its Accountability Report today. It has amassed record foreign currency reserves in its fight to protect the ceiling, and a large portion of those reserves are held in highly rated government bonds. In 2011, it spent 17.8 billion on foreign currencies. “The SNB took care to avoid its investments having any impact on the markets and currency developments of other countries,” the central bank said in the report.

Markets wrong to downplay Italian political risk - (www.reuters.com)  Italian bond spreads have risen nearly one percentage point since Italy’s election. It could have been worse – and considering the risks, it should. Political reform is a prerequisite if the country is to come out of its economic predicament: only a strong government can implement the fundamental changes that are still needed to boost growth in the long term. There is no doubt that Italy is headed for new elections this year. The question is whether the next parliament will be elected under the current bankrupt system, or under one that could help build a stable majority. The best chance for reform would be a scenario involving comedian Beppe Grillo’s 5-Star Movement whereby a centre-left government he openly or tacitly supports implements part of his platform: it includes electoral reform, cutting down the number of deputies, and serious measures against corruption and conflicts of interest. Pier Luigi Bersani, head of the centre-left party, hinted at an alliance with the 5-Star Movement last week. Grillo, so far, has turned him down.





Sunday, March 24, 2013

Monday March 25 Housing and Economic stories


TOP STORIES:

San Jose council votes to explore new road taxes - (www.mercurynews.com) Facing grim reports of deteriorating roads, the San Jose City Council voted unanimously to explore a raft of new tax and bond measures next year. The council also voted 9-2 to encourage state lawmakers to lower the required approval threshold for tax measures dedicated to transportation needs from two-thirds to 55 percent. Councilmen Pete Constant and Johnny Khamis were opposed. "The current condition of our roads is just unacceptable," said Vice Mayor Madison Nguyen. But some of the few public speakers who attended the afternoon council meeting -- which was interrupted by a power outage -- urged restraint on new taxes, especially after council members noted they also are considering renewal of a library bond measure and possibly a public safety bond.

Homeowner's Scheme Makes Bad Situation Worse... Ends Up in Jail - (www.ml-implode.com) Yesterday, a Connecticut homeowner, Eric S. Scherz, 44, was sentenced by United States District Judge Vanessa L. Bryant to 37 months of imprisonment, followed by three years of supervised release, for mortgage fraud. Here’s what happened… According to a press release issued by the U.S. Attorney’s Office, District of Connecticut, in October 2007, Mr. Scherz secured a $417,000 mortgage related to the purchase of a property in Barkhamsted.  Then, in April 2008, he created a “fraudulent release of mortgage on the property” that showed that a fictitious lender (a company Mr. Scherz created), had been paid in full and he filed the fraudulent release with the Town of Barkhamsted. Mr. Scherz then stopped making his mortgage payments in March of 2009, although in April 2009 he made three payments using a wire transfer from his bank that he knew would be reversed due to insufficient funds in his account. And then… in May of 2009, he sold his property for $299,000, and even though he owed $410,718.56 on his loan, the buyer believed the fraudulent recorded release was legitimate… and Mr. Scherz just pocketed the cash… none of the sale proceeds went to satisfying his outstanding loan.  The case was investigated by the Federal Bureau of Investigation and was prosecuted by Assistant United States Attorney Michael J. Gustafson and on January 6, 2012, Mr. Scherz pleaded guilty to three counts of wire fraud. And now Eric Scherz will be spending the next three years and one month doing “federal time,” which as I understand it, means he’ll serve every single day of his sentence.

Volcker Says Weakening the Fed’s Stimulus ‘Liquor’ a Challenge - (www.bloomberg.com) Former Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker said U.S. central bank officials may find it difficult to rein in their historic stimulus at the appropriate time because “there is a lot of liquor out there now.” “At some point when the worm turns and the party is getting under way, to use that old analogy, at what point do you begin retreating?” Volcker said today in a forum discussion in Washington. “You can make a mistake and go too quick, but the much more frequent mistake in my judgment is you go too slow, because it’s never popular to take the so-called punch bowl away or to weaken the liquor.”

Europe's economic fractures widen in February - (www.reuters.com) France, Spain and Italy dragged the euro zone into a deeper downturn in February, according to business surveys that showed the chasm between these countries and prosperous Germany widening yet again. While British services companies had a slightly better month than expected, Tuesday's purchasing managers' indexes (PMIs) showed deepening fractures running through the European economy. The divide between Germany and France, the euro zone's two biggest economies, grew to its widest since the currency union's inception in 1999.

Quinn's budget to call for education cuts – (www.chicagotribune.com) Gov. Pat Quinn is expected to call for spending nearly 3 percent less on education as he unveils a new budget proposal Wednesday, a move he blames squarely on the state's increasing government worker pension costs. The $278 million cut to elementary and high school funding would be at least the third straight significant annual reduction from state government to local school districts. "When you have that tremendous amount of money that you have to put in the pension (system), something's got to give," Quinn said on the "John Kass in the Morning" radio show on WLS-AM 890. "And our education, classroom education is going to get cut. And I don't like that, I think that's not the right thing for us to do as a state. That's why we need pension reform."