Wednesday, December 28, 2016

Thursday December 29 2016 Housing and Economic stories


IPOs had Worst Year since 2003. And the Dow at 20,000? - (www.wolfstreet.com) Stock indices are frolicking in record territory. The S&P 500 is up almost 11% this year, though the gains came after the election. The Dow has been titillating the entire world, day after day, with the prospect of finally, finally hitting 20,000 after being just a hair shy of it for two weeks. So it would seem that the IPO market would be hot. But for IPOs, 2016 has turned out to be a fabulously terrible year. That makes two years in a row. Last year at this time, I wrote that the IPO market in 2015 had been the worst since the Financial Crisis. I quoted Sam Kendall, UBS global head of equity capital markets:

Italy To Nationalize Monte Paschi After Private Sector Rescue Fails - (www.zerohedge.com) Update: the FT writes that the Italian govt set to take a stake between 50% and 70% in Monte dei Paschi, up from the current 4% stake, as part of the government's third bailout in as many years. As the FT adds, "the government rescue, which had long been resisted in Rome, is designed to draw a line under the slow-burn crisis in Italian banking that has alarmed investors and become the main source of concern for European financial regulators." It remains to be seen if Germany, long a critic of state bailouts, will be as agreeable. Meanwhile, Pier Carlo Padoan, the Italin finmin, insisted that apart from a few “critical” situations, Italy’s banking system was “solid and healthy”. He vowed to “minimise, if not erase” any impact of the public intervention on the savings of ordinary citizens. The third bailout, and re-nationalization, of Italy's third largest banks is imminent following a Reuters report that the ongoing, JPM-led attempt to execute a complex private sector bailout of Monte Paschi has failed.

Saving Italy’s Banks Means Missing Public Debt Target Once Again - (www.bloomberg.com) Italian governments may come and go, but the debts they have to deal with just keep mounting. Next year will probably bring more of the same with a new reason: the possible last-ditch rescue of Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, the country’s third-biggest bank, as well as other troubled banks. At a cabinet meeting on Tuesday, Prime Minister Paolo Gentiloni decided to ask the Rome-based parliament to approve up to 20 billion euros ($21 billion) in additional financing that could be used as a precautionary fund to rescue troubled lenders. “Such an addition inevitably means that the reduction of the debt ratio would be delayed further," said Loredana Federico, an economist at UniCredit Bank AG in Milan.

Percentage of Young Americans Living With Parents Rises to 75-Year High - (www.wsj.com) Household formations by millennials lag behind other economic recoveries; high rents, mortgage standards cited. Almost 40% of young Americans were living with their parents, siblings or other relatives in 2015, the largest percentage since 1940, according to an analysis of census data by real estate tracker Trulia. Despite a rebounding economy and recent job growth, the share of those between the ages of 18 and 34 doubling up with parents or other family members has been rising since 2005. Back then, before the start of the last recession, roughly one out of three were living with family. The trend runs counter to that of previous economic cycles, when after a recession-related spike, the number of younger Americans living with relatives declined as the economy improved.

Modi losing friends as anger grows over Indian cash crackdown – (www.reuters.com) A leading political ally of Narendra Modi has abruptly distanced himself from the Indian prime minister's move to scrap high-value banknotes, as broad initial support for the radical monetary reform showed signs of crumbling. The shift by N. Chandrababu Naidu, chief minister of Andhra Pradesh, came six weeks after Modi announced to a stunned nation that he would scrap 86 percent of the cash in circulation. While Modi remains by far India's most popular politician, any crack in his authority could have negative implications in state elections next year that will set the tone for his expected bid for a second term in 2019.


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