Thursday, January 21, 2016

Friday January 22 2016 Housing and Economic stories


Chicago Schools In "Dramatic Trouble": "They're Looking At A Disaster," Illinois Governor Warns - (www.zerohedge.com)  Back in September, we noted that Chicago’s schools are in trouble. Deep trouble. Amid Illinois’ intractable budget crisis, the city’s public school system opened with a budget shortfall of nearly a half billion dollars. Borrowing and trimming the proverbial fat helped close some of the $1.1 billion hole but once the board reached the point where “further cuts would reach deep into the classroom” (to quote system chief Forrest Claypool), the schools asked Springfield to make up the difference which amounts to $480 million. The Chicago Public School (CPS) system has nearly 400,000 students and more than 20,000 teachers. Around 1,400 jobs were eliminated in an effort to save money and more layoffs may be just around the corner if Springfield - which is mired in budget gridlock - doesn’t step in. One problem is the CPS pension liability. As WSJ noted four months ago, “the district’s pension costs have more than doubled in recent years after the board took a partial 'holiday' for three years from paying the amount needed to put the retirement system on a path to long-term solvency.”

Exclusive: Billionaire Lasry's junk fund stops reporting asset levels amid turmoil - (www.reuters.com)  A junk bond fund run by billionaire Marc Lasry's Avenue Capital Management, which has experienced heavy investment losses and investor withdrawals, has stopped voluntarily reporting daily asset figures to the mutual fund industry's top two tracking firms. Research chiefs for Morningstar and Lipper said on Monday they had not received daily asset under management figures from the Avenue Credit Strategies Fund (ACSBX.O) since about mid-December. The fund is not required to report the figures, but not doing so is "very unusual," said Jeff Tjornehoj, head of Americas research for Lipper, a Thomson Reuters unit. Avenue Capital's decision to stop reporting asset levels to the widely followed research firms happened on the heels of the biggest blow up in the mutual fund industry since the 2008 financial crisis.

Chicago Moves Toward Borrowing $2.65 Billion More in 2016 - (www.bloomberg.com) Chicago moved toward authorizing as much as $2.65 billion of borrowing in 2016, as the Windy City prepares to sell half a billion dollars of general-obligation debt. The city council’s finance committee approved the bond offerings late Monday. The deals still need to be authorized by the full council and are expected to be considered during Wednesday’s meeting. Chicago is scheduled to sell $500 million of general-obligation bonds on Tuesday. “What we’re bringing before you all today is our planned issuances for the entire year,” Carole Brown, Chicago’s chief financial officer, told aldermen. “It allows me the opportunity to work with our underwriters and with our finance team to figure out the most appropriate time to access the market.”

Oil Plunge Sparks Bankruptcy Concerns - (online.wsj.com)  Crude-oil prices plunged more than 5% on Monday to trade near $30 a barrel, making the specter of bankruptcy ever more likely for a significant chunk of the U.S. oil industry. Three major investment banks— Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Citigroup Inc.—now expect the price of oil to crash through the $30 threshold and into $20 territory in short order as a result of China’s slowdown, the U.S. dollar’s appreciation and the fact that drillers from Houston to Riyadh won’t quit pumping despite the oil glut. As many as a third of American oil-and-gas producers could tip toward bankruptcy and restructuring by mid-2017, according to Wolfe Research. Survival, for some, would be possible if oil rebounded to at least $50, according to analysts. The benchmark price of U.S. crude settled at $31.41 a barrel, setting a 12-year low.

All That Commercial Lending by Banks Suddenly Isn't Looking so Hot - (www.bloomberg.com) Commercial and industrial lending, the engine of banks' loan book growth in recent years, is showing signs of cracking, thanks to the dramatic fall in the price of oil and weakness in non-consumer-related things. On Tuesday, Deutsche Bank analysts cautioned that losses on C&I portfolios could end up as high as 90 basis points in 2016, more than the 20bps loss-rate currently expected by the Wall Street bank, and far more than the 15bps loss rate reported for last year. "Credit concerns are rising given continued pressure on oil prices (and commodities more broadly) as well as mixed U.S. economic data. If credit does weaken more than expected, many think it will show up in C&I given strong growth (+57 percent at large banks since 2010 vs. total loans +30 percent), loosening of underwriting standards and the risk liquidity declines for certain borrowers," Deutsche Bank analysts led by Matt O'Connor said in a note published on Tuesday.




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