Despite
CSX CEO's Confidence, US Oil Railcar Rates Have Crashed To 3 Year Lows - (www.zerohedge.com) Two
weeks ago, rail freight transportation company CSX's CEO Michael Ward stated
'unequivocally' that as far as the movement of crude by rail he has
"not seen any changes," suggesting everything's fine down to $30-35
oil and "expected no impact on crude shipments." It appears he
may have been somewhat careful with the truth as Reuters reports, while overall
oil-train traffic remains near record highs, the shadowy industry that deals in
the specialized 87-tonnecrude carriers has seen monthly lease rates plunge to
$1,300 late last month from a high of $2,450 about year earlier with the rates
at their lowest in about three years. Even worse, railcar construction has
surged amid the mal-investment boom exaggerating the over-supply, with one
trader noting brokers were offering cars at spot rates of as little as $500
a month compared with $4,000 a year ago.
Opinion: The Dow
Theory is now flashing a 'sell' signal
- (www.marketwatch.com) The U.S. stock market’s major
trend now is down, so act accordingly. That’s
what the Dow Theory, the oldest stock market timing system that remains in
widespread use today, is saying. It was created a century ago by William Peter
Hamilton, who at the time was the editor of the Wall Street Journal. He
introduced his theory in dribs and drabs over the first decades of the 20th
century on that paper’s editorial page. Though not all adherents of the Dow
Theory see eye to eye on how to translate Hamilton’s editorials into specific
market-timing rules, they generally agree that the market must jump over three
hurdles before a “sell” signal is generated. They are:
·
Hurdle
1: Both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Dow Jones Transportation
Average must undergo a “significant” correction from new highs.
·
Hurdle
2: In their subsequent “significant” rally attempt following that correction,
either one or both must fail to rise above their pre-correction highs.
·
Hurdle
3: Both averages must then drop below their respective correction lows.
Pimco
Fund Had $11.6 Billion of Withdrawals in January - (www.bloomberg.com) Pacific
Investment Management Co.’s biggest mutual fund suffered about $11.6 billion in
withdrawals in January, the 21st straight month of redemptions at the
investment fund created and formerly run by bond manager Bill Gross. The
withdrawals slowed from $19.4 billion in December, and brought assets in the
Pimco Total Return Fund to $134.6 billion as of Jan. 31, according to data from
the Newport Beach, California-based firm. Gross left Pimco on Sept. 26,
prompting a combined $91.5 billion in redemptions from the fund from September
through January. The $1.68 trillion money manager, seeking to reassure
investors and stem redemptions, has named top performers to run its biggest
fund and is pointing to a rebound in returns since Gross left. Under its new
leaders, Pimco Total Return advanced 2.98 percent in the past three months,
beating 94 percent of peers, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The fund
has climbed 2.45 percent so far this year, also beating 94 percent of similarly
managed funds.
Greece's
Finance Minister Heads to Germany With Markets Blessing - (www.bloomberg.com) Greek
Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis arrives in Germany with the wind at his back:
the biggest rally in stocks since the days of the drachma and a plunge in the
week-old government’s borrowing costs. All he had to do was drop a demand for a
debt writedown, retreating from a central campaign promise. Now, following
stops in Paris, London and Rome, he’ll encounter European Central Bank
President Mario Draghi and German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble, who hold
the keys to whether Greece gets the time and financial support needed to
negotiate the new bailout deal it’s seeking with fellow European Union leaders.
There may not be a meeting of the minds. “Both sides have to take extreme views
because it maximizes their bargaining position,” said Patrick Armstrong, chief
investment officer at Plurimi Investment Managers in London, which oversees
about $2 billion. “You have to show the end of the world ‘if you don’t agree
with me.’ So we’re in for a lot of rhetoric and volatility for the next month.”
S&P
Downgrades Numerous European Banks, Warns Deutsche Bank May Be Next – (www.zerohedge.com)
Just hours after apparently settling its suit
with the USA (not at all retaliation for downgrading them), S&P has taken
the big red marker out on a slew of European banks: Downgrades: Credit
Suisse, Barclays, Lloyds, Bank of Scotland, RBS, HSBC, and Ulster Bank. On
Watch Negative: Raiffeisen Zentralbank, MBank, Unicredit, Commerzbank, and
Deutsche Bank. The driver of the shift in perspective is the apparent removal
of the 'bailout put', as the prospect of "extraordinary government
support" appeared less likely under recently passed bail-in legislation.
The
Fed's favorite measure of inflation is drifting in the wrong direction - (www.businessinsider.com)
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