Monday, August 29, 2016

Tuesday August 30 2016 Housing and Economic stories


Derivatives Users Hit as Negative Rates Raise Collateral Costs - (www.bloomberg.com) Derivatives users are the latest group to be hurt by negative interest rates as they get penalized for the cash they park at Europe’s biggest clearinghouses. Traders can thank European Central Bank President Mario Draghi. Futures and swaps are used to hedge or speculate on everything from German interest rates to oil prices. To avoid taking a loss if a counterparty to a trade defaults, they post collateral, such as government bonds or cash, at a clearinghouse. In Europe, the biggest ones are in Frankfurt and London. But with German and U.K. debt yields so low, or even negative, clearinghouse customers are sometimes losing money on those assets.

McMansions Define Ugly in a New Way: They’re a Bad Investment - (www.bloomberg.com) In the late 1990s, Americans started referring to tract-built luxury homes popping up in the suburbs as McMansions, a biting portmanteau implying that the structures were mass-produced and ugly. There was also the implied snark that their denizens, however wealthy, lacked the sophistication to tell filet mignon from a Big Mac. Lately, these homes have been the subject of fresh scorn, thanks to an anonymously authored blog that breaks down the genre’s design flaws in excruciating detail. Posts lambasted builders for erecting garages bigger than the homes they’re attached to, dropping giant houses on tiny lots, plus shoddy construction and a mishmash of contrasting styles. (Gothic Tudor, anyone?) It’s fun reading that nevertheless raised the question: How well have these homes kept their value? Not well, compared with the rest of the U.S. housing market.

Debt to reach highest level since 1950 this year - (www.washingtonexaminer.com) The national debt this year will jump to the highest level since 1950 relative to the size of the economy, the Congressional Budget Office reported Tuesday. The agency projected that the debt held by the public will rise 3 percentage points to 77 percent of U.S. gross domestic product by the end of fiscal year 2016 in September. Debt has not hit that ratio since 1950, when the government was still in the middle of paying down the debt it incurred paying for World War II. Over the next 10 years, the office sees the debt rising from 77 percent of GDP to 86 percent. Beyond that, it's supposed to keep rising as interest costs on the debt mount, along with payments for Social Security, Medicare, and other mandatory programs.

ECB faces bulked-up govt bond buying if QE extended beyond March - (www.cnbc.com) The European Central Bank will have to bump up its monthly purchases of government bonds if it decides to continue buying beyond March 2017, just to ensure maturing paper does not reduce the pace of its money printing. J.P. Morgan estimates 320 billion euros ($363 billion) worth of bonds will mature between 2017 and 2019, and will need to be invested again to honour an ECB pledge to redeploy the money it receives when bonds are repaid. This additional buying could compound liquidity problems that have created unpredictable price swings in the bond market, and the ECB might find it hard to source enough paper and keep within its purchase criteria in some countries - notably Ireland and Portugal where it has already scaled back transactions.

Suddenly Scared of Vancouver’s Commercial Property Bubble? - (www.wolfstreet.com) For investors, Vancouver real estate has been a heavenly gift. But now, suddenly, some of the biggest institutional investors, including Canada’s third largest pension fund, are getting cold feet and want out. Just over the past 12 months, the “benchmark price” soared 27% for apartments and 38% for detached houses! The term “housing bubble” doesn’t even do it justice. But in July, British Columbia implemented a 15% transfer tax on home purchases involving foreign investors, an effort to put a lid on the price spiral that’s threatening to price an entire generation out of the housing market. By the end of July, the first squiggles appeared, as prices still soared but year over year sales volume plunged nearly 20% [read…Vancouver Housing Bubble, Meet Pin].




ECB faces bulked-up govt bond buying if QE extended beyond March  - (www.reuters.com)
Africa’s Next Big Currency Devaluation Seen Unfolding in Egypt - (www.bloomberg.com)
Largest Oil Companies’ Debts Hit Record High - (www.wsj.com)
Political tensions hit South Africa’s rand and Turkey’s lira - (www.ft.com)

No comments: