Sunday, July 5, 2015

Monday July 6 Housing and Economic stories


Major Money Manager Braces for Bond-Market Collapse - (www.bloomberg.com) TCW Group Inc. is taking the possibility of a bond-market selloff seriously. So seriously that the Los Angeles-based money manager, which oversees almost $140 billion of U.S. debt, has been accumulating more and more cash in its credit funds, with the proportion rising to the highest since the 2008 crisis. “We never realize what the tipping point is until after it happens,” said Jerry Cudzil, TCW Group’s head of U.S. credit trading. “We’re as defensive as we’ve been since pre-crisis.” TCW isn’t alone: Bond funds are holding about 8 percent of their assets as cash-like securities, the highest proportion since at least 1999, according to FTN Financial, citing Investment Company Institute data. Cudzil’s reasoning is that the Federal Reserve is moving toward its first interest-rate increase since 2006, and the end of record monetary stimulus will rattle the herds of investors who poured cash into risky debt to try and get some yield.

Big investors are dumping stocks like it's 2008 - (www.businessinsider.com)  Big investors are fleeing stocks. In a note Tuesday, Jill Carey Hall at Bank of America Merril Lynch (BAML) wrote that the clients' net sales of US stocks amounted to $4.1 billion last week, the largest total since January 2008. Most of the selling is being led by institutional investors. Here's Carey Hall: After three weeks of net buying, institutional clients' net sales last week were the largest in our data history. Hedge funds were net sellers for the ninth consecutive week, while private clients bought stocks last week following the previous week's net sales. Buybacks by corporate clients were slightly lower than in the previous week, but on a four-week average basis have generally continued at a constant pace since mid-May. Net sales last week were chiefly due to large caps (biggest sales ever of this size segment), though small and mid-caps also saw outflows. The strategists wrote that investors pulled the most money out of healthcare and financial stocks. Last week, outflows from healthcare were the largest on record, they said. On Friday, BAML strategists noted that investors last week pulled the most from government bonds since the so-called taper tantrum of 2013.

Why your state may be forced to raise your taxes - (www.cnbc.com)  State government tax revenue is only 5 percent above its pre-recession level. State finances across the U.S. have been described as stable but slow growing. Six years into the post-recession economic recovery, that statement may be accurate, but the full truth may be more troubling. A handful of states are caught in a real pension fix. A few statehouse budget battles in recent months have been notable for their heightened drama—Kansas, where huge tax cuts backfired on Gov. Sam Brownback; and Louisiana, where a member of Gov. Bobby Jindal's own party referred to his budget plan as "money laundering." But it's not the extremes that have state budget experts concerned. More states have been unable to complete budgets so far this year than is typical, and the situation points to long-term spending problems—from K–12 education to Medicaid and infrastructure—that will persist.

Kansas budget woes could hit small businesses hard - (www.cnbc.com)  By the numbers, Kansas is in the midst of a boom in small-businesscreation. Some 333,000 small-business owners filed returns this year, according to state revenue data, a record. But numbers can be deceiving, and even some prominent stateRepublicans are pointing to what they say are unintended consequences of a massive tax-cutting package championed by Republican Gov. Sam Brownback in 2012. Brownback had sold the package as a needed "shot of adrenaline" for the state economy, and particularly for small-business owners, whose profits would be exempt from state taxes. Indeed, the Kansas Department of Revenue reported 8,666 first-time small-business filings in 2013, the first full year of the cut. But experts agree the surge in filings probably has little to do with some sudden burst of entrepreneurship in Kansas. Rather, they say, it is more likely the result of people merely adjusting their filing status to take advantage of the tax break. It is simple enough—and perfectly legal—for, say, a veterinarian to set himself up as a corporation.

Facing "Full Blown Crisis", Bank Of Greece Enlists Security Firm To Ensure ATMs Stay Stocked  - (www.zerohedge.com) he nice fellow shown above filling the cash machine at Arnie's Place restaurant in Nidri Greece works for G4S, a security services firm which is working with the Bank of Greece to coordinate the Greek bank run. In essence, it’s the Bank of Greece’s job to accept stodgy collateral (including unsecured bonds issued by the banks themselves and backed by the full faith and credit of the insolvent Greek government) for newly-minted German TARGET2 claims euros and it’s G4S’s job to determine how those euros should be allocated to ensure that the ATMs don’t run out of cash. Here’s Reuters with more: Security services group G4S has drawn up plans with Greece's central bank to keep the country's cash machines stocked in the event of a full-blown economic crisis, the company told Reuters. "Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday were critical, really critical," he said, referring to withdrawals of cash from Greek banks. He added the situation eased over the weekend. Greeks withdrew more than 4 billion euros ($4.50 billion) from the banking system last week on fears the country was set to default and potentially leave the euro zone. That included withdrawals of more than 1 billion euros each on Thursday and Friday amid rising fears Athens would have to impose capital controls. The government denies it has any plans for that. G4S has been drawing up plans on how much cash it should move around the country, and when, Paterakis said. The firm has increased staff in recent months to meet an increase in demand for cash, which it estimates has risen by about 30 percent over the last two weeks.




No comments: