Monday, April 7, 2014

Tuesday April 8 Housing and Economic stories


Will China's housing bust turn foreign buyers into desperate sellers? - (www.ochousingnews.com) Chinese citizens invest in housing because it’s one of the few investment opportunities available to them. Until recently, there were no property taxes in China, so it cost very little to own property, so many Chinese invested in real estate as a store of wealth. Once valuations became detached from any fundamental value based on cashflow, the Chinese housing market became a Ponzi scheme similar to the US housing market during our bubble — except that the Chinese bubble is much, much larger. Is it ready to burst? A Chinese housing market crash could be even more disastrous than America’s: Investment drives China’s economy. And housing fuels a large share of that investment, contributing 33% of fixed-asset investment, says Zhang Zhiwei, an economist at Nomura—and, consequently, 16% of GDP. The decade-long housing boom that’s kept China’s GDP aloft has so far defied the bubble warnings, which began as far back as 2007. But the building binge is finally catching up with China. Not just because sales are faltering (paywall). After building around 13.4% more floorspace each year, China finally has too much housing, argues Zhang in a note this week. The quirks of China’s economic model mean that a housing crash will be more devastating for the economy than many realize. …

Ukraine to Impose Wealth Tax on Deposits; Run on Ukrainian Banks Coming? - (Mish at globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com) IndexToday has an interesting story on a Ukraine Wealth Tax.  The Prime Minister of Ukraine Arseniy Yatsenyuk proposed on Wednesday 19th of March 2014 the adoption of taxes on wealth of the richest Ukrainians in order to tackle the economic crisis in the country, clarifying that the law will apply to him as well. The Ukrainian prime minister stated that the proposed tax measures should apply on deposits more than 50,000 hryvnia (less than 4,000 euros). The measure is expected to affect approximately 10% of the population. During the ministerial council meeting, Arseniy Yatsenyuk cited his own tax return as an example showing that interest on his deposits amounted to 714,000 hryvnia (47,000 euros).

'Dire' consequences loom for jobless Europe - (www.cnbc.com) While there are reasons for "cautious optimism" as the euro zone shows signs of economic recovery, high unemployment in the region will fall by just one percentage point in the next four years and in some areas it will spike before dipping, a new study finds. Stubbornly high unemployment rates not only pose a real threat to the recovery, as consumer demand will remain subdued, but young people are also at risk of spending less time in employment, creating potentially "dire" consequences for businesses. Unemployment in the euro zone is currently sitting close to a record high of 12 percent, and is forecast to fall at a very slow rate over the next two years before reaching 11 percent by 2018, according to the spring EY Eurozone Forecast (EEF). Figures from European Union's statistics agency show approximately 19.175 million are without a job across the euro zone and in Greece, unemployment is set to climb to 28 percent this year before it falls by 3 percent in 2018. Youth unemployment in both Greece and Spain have reached a staggering 50 percent, presenting "major concerns" in terms of social tensions, education and labor mobility, the EEF said.

Rough road ahead for GM as U.S. Congress plots safety probe - (www.reuters.com) The U.S. congressional investigation into General Motors Co automobile defects will bring aggressive scrutiny to a company with powerful lobbying clout and strong ties on Capitol Hill. GM's recall of 1.6 million vehicles, due to an ignition-switch problem linked to 12 fatalities, has put the Detroit automaker in Congress' cross hairs, with potentially dramatic hearings kicking off in April. GM Chief Executive Mary Barra is scheduled to testify on April 1 to a U.S. House of Representatives panel investigating the ignition problem. In what could be a preview of such testimony, Barra on Monday declared in a video that "something went wrong with our process" and "terrible things happened." The handling of the defect by GM, which first noticed it in 2001, and federal regulators is the top priority of the powerful House Energy and Commerce Committee, according to aides.

China Funds Post Record Outflows as ETF Money Exits Bear Market - (www.bloomberg.com) Chinese equity funds are posting their biggest outflows on record as concern deepens that the world’s second-largest economy is slowing. Investors pulled out a net $1.5 billion in the week through March 19, of which $1.3 billion came from exchange-traded funds, Citigroup Inc. said today, citing EPFR Global. Emerging-market funds had outflows of $4.1 billion in the 21st straight week of withdrawals, analysts Markus Rosgen and Yue Hin Pong wrote in a report, while European funds had inflows for a 38th week.





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