Monday July 7 Housing and Economic stories

Top Stories:

Real estate agent killed in office - (www.freep.com) I have had trouble with a few realtors in the past, but trying to hold a realtor responsible for a price decline for a property he bought in 2005 is a bit outrageous. A man upset about a property transaction shot a real estate agent in the head, mortally wounding him, during a meeting Tuesday morning in the victim’s office, authorities said. Troy VanderStelt, 34, was pronounced dead at 12:45 p.m. at Mercy Health Partners Hackley Campus in Muskegon, said Muskegon County Prosecutor Tony Tague. A suspect was arrested a short time after the shooting at a home in nearby Norton Shores. Tague identified him as Robert Arnold Johnson, 73, of Roosevelt Park. Tague told WOOD-TV in Grand Rapids that Johnson believed that VanderStelt took advantage of him in a real estate deal. Johnson bought a house through him in 2005, then recently decided to sell it and went to a different real estate agent. The second agent told Johnson that, because of the slumping housing market, the home was not worth what he had paid for it.

Is the American Dream in business? - (news.bbc.co.uk) Must read, but sad commentary on the state of Detroit. East Grand Boulevard in Detroit is still handsome, in its way. There are wooden and brick houses on spacious plots, with trees front and back. They have that early 20th Century confidence that American architects were able to exploit, with high chimneys, wide porches and plenty of room inside. But many of them are not homes any more. They're empty, bricked up, maybe open to the sky or burnt-out. As a street, it represents a generation of inner city decline. You can find plenty of prosperity around the edges of Detroit. But take a trip down East Grand Boulevard and into the enclave of Hamtramck, which was the heart of the American car industry, and you can sense the economic angst that's gripping the country.

The Credit Crisis Is Going to Get Worse - (online.wsj.com) Twenty years ago, Ted Forstmann contributed a scathing – and prescient – op-ed to this newspaper warning that the junk-bond craze was about to end badly: "Today's financial age has become a period of unbridled excess with accepted risk soaring out of proportion to possible reward," he wrote in October 1988. "Every week, with ever-increasing levels of irresponsibility, many billions of dollars in American assets are being saddled with debt that has virtually no chance of being repaid." Within a year, the junk-bond market had collapsed, and within 18 months Drexel Burnham Lambert, the leading firm of the junk-bond world, was bankrupt. Mr. Forstmann sees even worse trouble coming today. "We are in a credit crisis the likes of which I've never seen in my lifetime," Mr. Forstmann warns. He adds: "The credit problems in this country are considerably worse than people have said or know. I didn't even know subprime mortgages existed and I was worried about the credit crisis."

Bitter lessons learned from refinancing - (www.latimes.com) Vicki Miller bought her childhood home in Altoona, Pa., from her mother's estate for $32,000, using a nice, traditional mortgage from the local savings and loan. Seven years later, her debt has more than doubled, her once-significant equity has shrunk to zero and she's behind on her payments. The lender has begun to threaten foreclosure. "I grew up here. My son grew up here. And I had hoped my grandchildren would grow up here," Miller said woefully. Miller said she was persuaded to refinance her mortgage twice into sub-prime loans she didn't really understand, along with taking out a second mortgage. As such, she reflects what experts say is the true face of the sub-prime mortgage debacle.

Airline woes cause pain for Las Vegas casinos - (content.usatoday.com) So much for that idiotic argument that Vegas is recession-proof. That was just more garbage being spewed by overpaid financial analysts who have never lived through a real recession and who are basing their research on 20 years worth of data. Nevada's Tourism Alliance convened an "Air Crisis Briefing" Monday to discuss the issue. US Airways, the second-largest carrier to Las Vegas after Southwest Airlines, said earlier this month that it plans to cut flights to the gambling center by nearly half. Other air carriers to announce scaled-back flight schedules after the peak summer travel season include Continental Airlines, American Airlines, United Airlines and Delta Air Lines. About half of visitors to Las Vegas arrive by air, with the rest driving in, mainly from Southern California. But air arrivals account for about 80% of hotel stays. From now through the end of next year, the room inventory in Las Vegas is slated to jump by more than 11,000 with the opening of casino-hotels like Wynn Resorts' Encore, MGM's City Center and Fontainebleau Las Vegas. "We are concerned that Las Vegas could lose several million or more air seats at a minimum," Macquarie Research analyst Joel Simkins said in a research note earlier this week.
Greff estimated that the flight cutbacks will at least cause significantly higher airfares and single-digit declines in flight arrivals into Las Vegas. "We think the impact of lower airlift capacity and high gas prices couldn't come at a worse time for the Strip, with four larger mega-resorts set to open over the next three years," he said in a research note. In total, work is underway to add more than 40,000 luxury hotel rooms to the gambling corridor — about one-third more than today.

Down and out in Las Vegas - (www.independent.co.uk) - With the high oil prices, people don't have much disposable income to spend on gaming and entertainment. And on the horizon is further strife. As a hangover from the frenzied growth of two years ago, Las Vegas is also in the grip of a speculative building boom, with dozens of cranes towering over the Strip... The prevailing emotion among business leaders is a mixture of optimism and denial. No tourist resort can afford to lose its buzz. Yet the slump now runs so deep it's starting to hurt even the town's Elvis impersonators, wedding chapels, and sex industry. When money's tight, the prospect of stuffing another $20 bill into a lap-dancer's gyrating stocking-top somehow doesn't seem quite so enticing. "This year already we've seen the Minx closing, the Mensa club closing, and the Crazy Horse closing," says Dolores Eliades, owner of the OG, the second biggest "adult cabaret" venue in the world. "By another 12 months from now, I expect another two or three major venues will have gone.

Las Vegas suffers epidemic of bankruptcies, foreclosures and mass layoffs. - (www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk) - This week, in an attempt to prevent financial meltdown, Nevada's Tourism Alliance convened an "Air Crisis Briefing" in an effort to prevent airline plans to halve the number of flights to the resort. The city's gut-busting "eat all you can" buffets are also being scaled back to account for the US's 4 per cent food inflation. Where a long queue of obesity once trailed across The Bellagio hotel restaurant's ornate carpets, demand for its famous (but now pricey) lunch buffet had on Thursday slowed to a trickle. In what sounds suspiciously like a panic measure, the Golden Gate Hotel this month even said it was doubling the price of its signature 99 cent shrimp cocktail. For the inhabitants of the desert resort, which was founded in 1905 and became prosperous after gambling was legalised in 1931, it's no joking matter. The growing unemployment crisis (MGM just axed another 400 middle-managers), plus a downturn in the tips that form a significant portion of the Vegas economy, has a human cost, too. Local bankruptcies have quadrupled. The property market, which rode the wave of a boom for most of the past decade is now below its peak by anything from a quarter to a third (depending on whose figures you believe), while Nevada now boasts, if that is the right word, the nation's highest foreclosure rate.

Billionaire Says Economy in Worst Slump Since World War II - (www.bloomberg.com) Billionaire investor Eli Broad said the U.S. economy is in the worst recession since World War II and a recovery in the housing market is ``several years'' away.
``This is worse than any recession we've had since World War II,'' Broad, 75, said in an interview yesterday. Broad, the founder of homebuilder KB Home, said the U.S. should avoid a depression on the scale of the 1930s because the country now has sufficient ``safety nets.'' With home sales and prices declining and consumer confidence at a 28-year low, ``I don't see it turning around very quickly,'' Broad said. The economy expanded at an annual rate of 1 percent in the first quarter, the Commerce Department said last week. That caps the weakest six months of growth in five years. ``This is the worst period of my adult lifetime,'' Broad said, speaking about the U.S. economy. ``I do not think things are going to get any better'' before the next president takes office in January. Selling off vacant, unsold homes could take ``several years,'' he said.

California wildfires strain state's resources - (www.ap.com) The governor noted that he recently ordered 400 National Guard troops to be trained in wildfire fighting so they could help fight the state's blazes. He also urged lawmakers to adopt his budget plan for a $70 million emergency surcharge on home and business insurance policies to buy more firefighting equipment. California now has a year-round fire season and needs the money from the fee, which should cost the average homeowner about $1 a month, Schwarzenegger said.

Analyst sees 'ghost town' in Inland Empire - (www.latimes.com) A financial analyst fresh from a tour of construction sites in the Inland Empire is warning Wall Street of a "ghost town" where finished homes sit vacant and additional homes are still under construction.
"At several properties, there were a significant number of fully built homes sitting vacant along with a large number of additional homes still under construction," Sandler O'Neill & Partners analyst Aaron Deer wrote today after touring developments in Corona and Ontario. "At one master plan community, the entire development appeared to be vacant -- with the exception of crews working on new construction, it was a ghost town."

Ghost Towns In California - (globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com) More from Deer's note: "The homes all appeared to be empty, and there were no prospective buyers anywhere to be found. Surprisingly, the sales office was open ... but the woman working there had questionable English fluency. When asked how many homes had been sold in the past month she simply responded, 'Uh huh. Thank you. Yes!' and handed us some additional literature on the property." More: "Perhaps the most interesting aspect to the development was what it revealed about the nature of the housing boom: that at the peak even the most undesirable and remote locations were worthy of expensive, high-end homes."
The bank financing this project will own the entire subdivision when it is complete.

As Gas Prices Soar, Elderly Face Cuts in Aid - (www.nytimes.com) Early last month, Jeanne Fair, 62, got her first hot meals delivered to her home in this lake town in the sparsely populated southwestern part of the state. Then after two deliveries the meals stopped because gas prices had made the delivery too expensive. “They called and said I was outside of the delivery area,” said Mrs. Fair, who is homebound and has not been able to use her left arm since a stroke in 1997. Faced with soaring gasoline prices, agencies around the country that provide services to the elderly say they are having to cut back on programs like Meals on Wheels, transportation assistance and home care, especially in rural areas that depend on volunteers who provide their own gas. In a recent survey by the National Association of Area Agencies on Aging, more than half said they had already cut back on programs because of gas costs, and 90 percent said they expected to make cuts in the 2009 fiscal year.

Bradford & Bingley counts cost of private equity pull-out - (www.guardian.co.uk) - Shares in Bradford & Bingley slumped today after its attempts to raise urgently needed fresh capital were hit by the withdrawal of US private equity firm TPG Capital. The buy-to-let lender's share price tumbled in early trading, at one stage dipping below 55p – the price at which it hopes to sell new shares to investors through its bruised rights issue. But by noon the company's shares had settled at 55.25p, a 9% fall. TPG ditched its plan to inject £179m into B&B last night, after ratings agency Moody's told the bank it was planning to downgrade its credit rating. The downgrade reflects Moody's view that B&B, which has been hit by the sub-prime crisis and the slumping UK housing market, is now a greater risk to investors.

TPG faces cool reception in future - (www.ft.com) This is a funny article on how pissed off the UK finance community is that TPG walked away. Yes, TPG will be shut-out of the next big housing boom in the UK 20 years from now.TPG Capital’s decision to scrap its £179m capital injection into Bradford & Bingley is likely to make life harder for the US buy-out group the next time it comes to the UK fishing for a deal – especially in financial services. Supporters of TPG were thin on the ground yesterday after B&B’s shareholders were forced to plug the gap in the mortgage bank’s finances created when TPG pulled a proposed capital injection three working days before scheduled completion. The buy-out group has not breached contractual obligations to B&B since a clause in its agreement gave it the right to walk away if the bank’s credit rating was lowered, as happened yesterday morning

Online Commenter Bogeyman of New Brooklyn - (www.nymag.com) Interesting story about prejudices coming out on a Brooklyn housing blog. Is Clinton Hill an okay place to move? It’s vibrant, diverse, and feels very safe. Clinton Hill is full of black people who have a chip on their shoulder and some white people who think themselves cool for living among them. It is a gorgeous little stretch of buildings. If you like the ghetto, you will love that area. I’m comfortable in Clinton Hill but my wife isn’t and she wants out. Go back to Kansas, asswipe. Crown Heights is one of the most beautiful neighborhoods in Brooklyn. If you are white, look for another area, unless you want to get attacked. Since moving into the neighborhood two years ago, I have already seen it change dramatically. Just so you know, “edgy” and “unsafe” means “black.” The new residents look at you as if you are a piece of ghetto trash. Every town in Brooklyn will be gentrified sooner or later. This is an awesome area. It’s disgusting and ugly. This is my neighborhood, motherfuckers, I was born and raised here. Jeez, you people are hateful. Please leave Brooklyn, you do not belong here, newcomer. The war is over. You lost. Get out.

Bowyer: Back to Monarchy in Land Rights? - (www.cnbc.com) Interesting take on how our government has regressed on mineral rights from what Jefferson proposed. Jefferson, who wrote the Declaration of Independence which we celebrate today, fought for the powerful idea that the right to private property included what’s under the surface of the ground as well as what is above it. Jefferson announced a Novus Ordo Seclorum. This translates as “new order of the ages”, not as certain right wing conspiracy cranks claim “new world order”. It means that the old legal order of the divine right of kings would give way to a new order of "all men are created equal." We have in recent decades drifted backwards, a little, to the old world. Some western states are almost all government owned, and the resources of those states remains buried in the ground. Not so with Pennsylvania, which is historically a farming state. That’s why the world’s first commercial oil well was sunk not far from here, in Titusville, on what previously been a farm.


Other Stories:

Should Congress pass the $300 billion housing bailout bill? - (www.cnbc.com) No, No, No, No, No, No, No, No!!!!! Most politicians will sign of course because it is an election year.
FDIC Warns Banks on HELOC Freezes, REO Management - (www.housingwire.com)
How Lehman Brothers Veered Off Course - (www.washingtonpost.com)
LA, Miami Foreclosure Rates More Than Double - (www.bloomberg.com)
Overdue House-Equity Credit Lines Rise Most Since 1987 - (www.bloomberg.com)
Option ARM delinquencies spiking - (www.businessweek.com)
Calif budget deficit turns spotlight on Prop. 13 - (www.cnbc.com)

Obama and McCain Flip-Flops, Housing Sketchiness - (www.ml-implode.com) - ``More germane to this blog and to the theme of ‘politics as usual’ than to ‘flip-flopping,’ both candidates have (or had) ties ...
Mr Mortgage: Mortgage Modifications Part 2 - Being Forward Thinking - (www.ml-implode.com) - Being forward thinking is key in understanding this mess. Talking about all of this is key because the only way we are going to...
The rate of option ARM delinquencies is already spiking - (optionarmageddon.ml-implode.com) - According to a recent analysis by Lehman Brothers, option ARMs that originated in 2006 performed about as well as fixed-rate Al...
Honolulu house prices fall 8.8% in year - (www.honoluluadvertiser.com)
Paulson: U.S. house prices to fall more - (biz.yahoo.com)
Housing market seen getting worse - (uk.reuters.com)
Merrill’s desperate: Bloomberg stake on the block - (www.ml-implode.com) The NYT will report in tomorrow’s paper that Merrill is seeking a buyer for its 20% stake in Bloomberg LP, the maker of the ubiquitous financial terminals. According to the Times:
…Merrill, which has already raised $15 billion since John A. Thain took over as chief executive last fall, is finding it difficult to raise additional capital through previously used means, like selling preferred stock to sovereign wealth funds and other institutional investors, and it would prefer to avoid diluting the holdings of existing investors.
``The tree of liberty must be refreshed from time to time with the blood of patriots and tyrants'' - (www.ml-implode.com) Never has there been a time in our history where our freedom has bee over shadowed by our burdens of debt and war, as it is now. The time has come to unite in the streets of America as people, families and communities who must stick together, stand tall and keep fighting for what the fathers of our country did over 200 years ago.

Number of Those Unemployed For at Least 6 Months Rises - (online.wsj.com)
Accelerating Price Declines - (PDF - pmi-us.com)
Gas prices hit another high for holiday weekend - (www.ap.com)
Service Sector Data Adds to Inflation Anxiety - (www.nytimes.com)
U.S. Apartment Vacancy Unchanged at 5.9 Percent, Rents Increase - (www.bloomberg.com)
As Summit Approaches, G-8 Weighs Expansion - (www.washingtonpost.com)
FDIC: FIL-62-2008: Guidance on Other Real Estate - (www.fdic.gov)
Credit Card Overhauls Seem Likely - (www.nytimes.com)

Bearish battalions - (www.economist.com)
Foreclosures to rise whoever wins White House - (www.ap.com)
Santa Cruz prices breaking down - (patrick.net) Zillow shows house is worth $1.55M but it is listed at $650K
Nowhere to Turn for Market Relief? - (www.seekingalpha.com)
Understanding Bernanke - (optionarmageddon.ml-implode.com)

Merrill Said to Be in Talks to Sell (www.bloomberg.com) Stake - (www.nytimes.com)
Merrill Lynch in talks to sell (www.bloomberg.com) stake: report - (www.marketwatch.com)
A window to a new world - (www.economist.com)

European Banks May Need EU90 Billion, Goldman Says - (www.bloomberg.com)
Yuan Falls Most in a Month as China Seeks to Curb `Hot Money' - (www.bloomberg.com)
Weak dollar is global concern: EU's Barroso - (www.reuters.com)
Inflation could hit 12% on costlier edible oil, food & steel - (economictimes.indiatimes.com)
ECB Policy Makers Say Fighting Inflation Remains Priority - (www.bloomberg.com)
British consumers face their retail reckoning - (www.ft.com)
Philippines inflation highest in 14 years - (www.ft.com)
A Window in a Smoky Market - (www.nytimes.com)
Settling scores - (www.economist.com)
The Economy? Words Fail Me. - (www.washingtonpost.com)