Wednesday, December 31, 2014

Thursday January 1 Housing and Economic stories


Oil Crash Wipes $11.7 Billion From Buyout Firms’ Holdings - (www.bloomberg.com) Oil’s plunge makes energy a great investment for the coming years, according to Blackstone Group LP (BX)’s Stephen Schwarzman and Carlyle (CG) Group LP’s David Rubenstein. For private equity firms, it’s also been painful. More than a dozen firms -- including Apollo Global Management LLC (APO), Carlyle, Warburg Pincus and Blackstone -- have lost a combined $11.7 billion in 27 publicly traded oil producers since June, when crude prices reached this year’s peak before beginning their six-month slide, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Stocks of buyout firms with exposure to energy have slumped, and bond prices suggest some closely held oil producers may struggle to pay for their debt. “It’s been a really volatile period, and frankly that’s how Saudi Arabia wants it,” said Francisco Blanch, head of global commodity research at Bank of America Corp. “This is a battle of endurance.” Brent crude oil slumped 47 percent to about $61 late last week from its high this year of $115 a barrel, dragging down energy stocks, as the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries sought to defend market share amid a U.S. shale expansion that’s adding to a global glut. The group, responsible for 40 percent of the world’s supply, will refrain from curbing output, U.A.E. Energy Minister Suhail al-Mazrouei said on Dec. 14.

Whitney’s Fund Said to Drop 11% as Office Put on Market - (www.bloomberg.com)  Meredith Whitney, who started a hedge fund after becoming one of Wall Street’s most famous analysts, has found it harder to bet on stocks than scrutinize them. Her fund is down 11 percent this year through last month, its main investor has demanded money back, top executives have left and her full-floor Madison Avenue office is now on the market. Her American Revival Fund LP fell in eight of the past 11 months and was up less than 1 percent in two others, returns reviewed by Bloomberg News show. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index was up about 12 percent over that span. Soured investments include a loss of more than $2 million on Conn’s Inc. (CONN), an electronics retailer that dropped 56 percent in that period, according to a person with knowledge of her fund who asked for anonymity to describe its performance.

Medicare Patient Skips Mortgage to Cope With $20,000 Bill  - (www.bloomberg.com)   Each month, William Piorun has to choose between paying his mortgage or buying medicine that keeps his pituitary-gland tumor in check. This month and last, the 65-year-old Medicare patient paid the mortgage, and stopped taking a drug that his doctor says he needs to ward off the risk of premature death. Once, hard choices like these were commonly forced only on those without health insurance. Now more patients who have insurance or Medicare must confront them as drug bills for those with chronic and life-threatening decisions soar. Earlier this year, Piorun faced out-of-pocket bills of $1,000 a month for medicines. That -- together with $2,000 in monthly mortgage and home-equity payments, other bills and living expenses -- was too much for him.

Ukraine Central Bank Conned Into Swapping Its Gold For Lead Bricks - (www.zerohedge.com) Just when one thought the story of Ukraine and its (now non-existant) gold could not get any more surreal, it did. As a reminder, it was about a month ago when we learned courtesy of an interview on Ukraine TV with the country's central bank head Valeriya Gontareva, that Ukraine's gold was virtually all gone, when she made the stunning admission that "in the vaults of the central bank there is almost no gold left. There is a small amount of gold bullion left, but it's just 1% of reserves." That in itself would have been sufficient to explain why just a few short days later, the Netherlands shocked the world when it announced it had secretly repatriated 122 tonnes of gold from the NY Fed, and had the story of Ukraine's missing gold ended there (or even with the criminal probe launched by Ukraine whether the central bank head had abused her power and misused her office when she "intentionally committed an extremely unfavorable transaction for the gold and forex reserves of Ukraine"), it still would have been one of the most bizarre, surreal stories of 2014. Luckily, the story just got far better, and far, far more bizarre and surreal. As Bloomberg reports, Ukraine opened a criminal probe after several gold bars at the central bank’s storage in the southern city of Odessa turned to be painted lead.

[Washington Post] Oil scandal in Brazil just keeps growing; optimists see chance for change  - (www.washingtonpost.com) On the surface it could not be much worse for Brazil. With the economy faltering, its cherished government-controlled oil company Petrobras spiraled into a $3.8 billion corruption scandal just as it was finally ramping up production in its vast deep water reserves. Since the unfolding corruption investigation became public in March, charges have been filed against 91 people, including executives from Petrobras and some of Brazil’s biggest construction and engineering companies. And it’s not over. On Friday the Estado de S. Paulo newspaper was the latest publication to name politicians it said were linked to the scheme. Prosecutors say that Petrobras executives, including Paulo Costa, the former director of the supply department who has turned state’s evidence, collected 1 to 5 percent bribes on fattened contracts and that contractors from six companies formed a “club” to fix Petrobras bids. The newspaper’s Web site named 28 politicians, mostly from the ruling Workers Party and its coalition allies, who, according to Costa, benefited from the scheme — accusations that were denied.





Tuesday, December 30, 2014

Wednesday December 31 Housing and Economic stories


Bond Issues From Russia and Ecuador Serve as Cautionary Tales for Junk-Rated Debt - (www.nytimes.com) If David Letterman did a top 10 list for dubious bond investments, a case might be made for including two fast imploding issues from Ecuador and Russia. The euphoria for junk bonds from emerging market economies, fueled by rock-bottom interest rates in the United States, Japan and Europe, has offered up any number of fallen angels, from OGX, the bankrupt Brazilian energy firm, to a spate of Mexican home builders. But, in many ways, a $600 million bond issue by a Russian train company in 2012 and, two years later, a $2 billion offering by the government of Ecuador, serve as cautionary bookends for high-yield bond segment, even though it shows no sign of ending anytime soon. When Brunswick Rail, Russia’s largest private-sector train company, offered $600 million worth of bonds to global investors in 2012, the deal was a blowout. More than $3 billion in demand came from yield-starved global investors. Oil prices were high and Russian railroads were seen as a good growth play, notwithstanding the competition the company faced from state owned firms and the fact that Brunswick was borrowing in dollars and getting a good chunk of its revenues in rubles.

Major dry bulk carriers finish 2014 at standstill – (www.shippingwatch.comSpot rates for the major benchmark Capesize vessels continue to slide, and the ships are seeing very low activity in the Pacific and virtually none on the Atlantic. "Rates are falling further and further below Opex and decreased on Wednesday to USD 4,109 per day. Panamax is also quiet, and many owners are eager to sign contracts, which pulls the the rates down," said Fearnley on Thursday. According to analysts Platou, charter earnings for Capesize stand at USD 5,400 per day - below operating costs, which typically come to USD 6,500 per day for a newer vessel. It is unusually difficult to predict the future bulk market at this time, says Platou, citing developments in China with the country's reduced consumption and lower coal imports, developments that have hit dry bulk in 2014. And there is a big chance that next year will bring similar developments if Chinese politicians continue to favor their own domestic industry to the detriment of overseas suppliers.

Norway's oil sector faces tougher times as prices fall  - (www.dailymail.co.uk) Norway's oil sector is facing difficult times and energy investment forecasts may have to be cut further if prices continue to drop, central bank governor Oeystein Olsen said on Thursday. Prices have fallen to a 28-month low, hitting the Nordic country's vast oil industry, which accounts for a fifth of the economy and half of its exports. Oil and gas investments are expected to fall by 10 percent next year on investor demands for higher returns and a drop in oil prices. "If the oil price continues to drop, it will eventually reach a point where we'll have to reconsider our estimates for future (oil industry) investments," Olsen told reporters after a speech to business leaders. A weak PMI reading released Wednesday adds to the worries, on top of a steady stream of projects delays, cancellations and layoffs in the oil sector. The Norwegian purchasing managers' index (PMI) fell to 49.4 points in September from 51.8 in August. Analysts polled by Reuters had expected the index to fall to 51.0.


"Houston, You Have A Problem" - Texas Is Headed For A Recession Due To Oil Crash, JPM Warns - (www.zerohedge.com) It was back in August 2013, when there was nothing but clear skies ahead of the US shale industry that we asked "How Much Is Oil Supporting U.S. Employment Gains?" The answer we gave: The American Petroleum Institute said last week the U.S. oil and natural gas sector was an engine driving job growth.Eight percent of the U.S. economy is supported by the energy sector, the industry's lobbying group said, up from the 7.7 percent recorded the last time the API examined the issue. The employment assessment came as the Energy Department said oil and gas production continued to make gains across the board. With the right energy policies in place, API said the economy could grow even more. But with oil and gas production already at record levels, the narrative over the jobs prospects may be failing on its own accord.... The API's report said each of the direct jobs in the oil and natural gas industry translated to 2.8 jobs in other sectors of the U.S. economy. That in turn translates to a total impact on U.S. gross domestic product of $1.2 trillion, the study found. Fast forward to today when we are about to learn that Newton's third law of Keynesian economics states that every boom, has an equal and opposite bust. Which brings us to Texas, the one state that more than any other, has benefited over the past 5 years from the Shale miracle. And now with crude sinking by the day, it is time to unwind all those gains, and give back all those jobs. Did we mention: highly compensated, very well-paying jobs,not the restaurant, clerical, waiter, retail, part-time minimum-wage jobs the "recovery" has been flooded with. Here is JPM's Michael Feroli explaining why Houston suddenly has a very big problem.

How a freight bill went from $5,000 to $68,000 - (www.cnbc.com)  There are 620 cycling trainers stuck in Long Beach, California. They spent close to five days stuck on a boat outside of the port. When the container they were in was finally unloaded off the ship, it was parked in a rail transfer yard for two days. At this publication time, they are still there. The cycles were supposed to be in Atlanta on Wednesday. Given the delay there was no way the equipment, already pre-sold to customers, would make it to their destinations by Christmas. So the importer, Wahoo Fitness, loaded another 620 of its training cycles, called KICKRs and retailing for about $1,100 each, onto an airplane and flew them over from Asia. It cost $68,000. The ocean freight bill is typically between $3,000-$5,000. "It will reduce our gross margin by a third to a half," said Mike Stashak, vice president of sales and marketing at Wahoo, in an interview. "We're still making money off it, but not a whole lot."




Monday, December 29, 2014

Tuesday December 30 Housing and Economic stories


Martin Armstrong Asks "Will They Hang Bankers Again On Wall Street?" - (www.zerohedge.com) What took place in Washington over the past two weeks with the repeal of Dodd Frank and then the effective repeal of the Volcker Rule sounds strikingly familiar to at least three previous periods in American History that led to total disaster. There were of course the Northern “carpetbaggers”, whom many in the South viewed as opportunists looking to exploit and profit from the region’s misfortunes following the Civil War. The “carpetbaggers” would play a central role in shaping new southern governments during the Reconstruction period who were joined by Southerners who saw economic gain in joining the Northerners in the exploitation of the South. They were called “scalawags”. Then there were the Silver Democrats who were bought and paid for by the mining industry. William Jennings Bryan’s red-hot emotional speech at the 1896 Democratic Convention will forever live on in history. The shenanigans of the Democrats and Republicans, who tried to overvalue silver, led to the near bankruptcy of the nation and made JP Morgan famous thanks to the Panic of 1896 when he had to arrange a gold loan to save the country. Then there was what people called the First Gilded Age more than a century ago, when senators and representatives were owned by Wall Street and big business. This culminated in the 1929 Crash.

Greek premier prepared European ground before vote gamble - (www.reuters.com) Prime Minister Antonis Samaras has bet on Greece's future with an early vote for the presidency. But in contrast to a recent predecessor, he made sure before dropping the bombshell that Berlin and Brussels wouldn't stand in the way. Samaras's decision last week to bring the three-stage parliamentary vote forward to this month from February took the Greek establishment and financial markets by surprise.  But a select few knew it was coming, among them GermanFinance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble. With Berlin playing a decisive role in European aid for Greece, Samaras and Schaeuble spoke repeatedly by telephone in the days before the early vote was announced on Dec. 8, according to a euro zone official with direct knowledge of the talks. 

Crude Below $60 Tests Petrobras’ Deepwater Discoveries - (www.bloomberg.com) Petroleo Brasileiro SA (PETR4) Chief Executive Officer Maria das Gracas Foster said in June that the development of Brazil’s giant oil discoveries beneath a layer of salt would be cheaper than competing North American projects. That advantage is quickly evaporating. Brent crude fell to as low as $58.50 in London this week, approaching the state-run producer’s break-even range of $41 to $57 a barrel for the so-called pre-salt projects mentioned by Gracas Foster six months ago when oil was trading above $100. Petrobras, which planned to invest more than $100 billion to tap deposits trapped two miles (3.2 kilometers) beneath the seabed off Rio de Janeiro, is slowing total spending after lowering its oil price estimate next year to $70 a barrel, it said last week.

Bankers See $1 Trillion of Investments Stranded in the Oil Fields - (www.bloomberg.com) After crude prices dropped 49 percent in six months, oil projects planned for next year are the undead -- still standing upright, but with little hope of a productive future. These zombie projects proliferate in expensive Arctic oil, deepwater-drilling regions and tar sands from Canada to Venezuela. In a stunning analysis this week, Goldman Sachs found almost $1 trillion in investments in future oil projects at risk. They looked at 400 of the world’s largest new oil and gas fields -- excluding U.S. shale -- and found projects representing $930 billion of future investment that are no longer profitable with Brent crude at $70. In the U.S., the shale-oil party isn’t over yet, but zombies are beginning to crash it. The chart below shows the break-even points for the top 400 new fields and how much future oil production they represent. Less than a third of projects are still profitable with oil at $70. If the unprofitable projects were scuttled, it would mean a loss of 7.5 million barrels per day of production in 2025, equivalent to 8 percent of current global demand.

GM, Audi Suspend Car Sales in Russia on Ruble’s Collapse - (www.bloomberg.com) General Motors Co. (GM), Audi and Jaguar Land Rover temporarily stopped selling cars in Russia this week, deciding that taking a timeout from the market was the best way to deal with the ruble’s collapse. Automakers are battling a more than 40 percent drop in the value of the ruble since June, Russia’s biggest financial crisis since 1998. In recent weeks, Russian customers has been snapping up Porsches and other cars to convert their savings into something tangible. That temporary boon for the industry soon turned to a liability as the ruble’s drop ate into what the manufacturers got for their vehicles. GM suspended sales to dealers on Dec. 16 to “manage its business risk” in light of the volatility of the ruble, the Detroit-based carmaker’s Russian unit said by e-mail. GM, which didn’t set a date to resume wholesale deliveries, will deliver Chevrolet, Opel and Cadillac cars that have already been purchased at the agreed-on price.





Sunday, December 28, 2014

Monday December 29 Housing and Economic stories


Russians Are Flooding Out Of London's Housing Market As The Ruble Crumbles  - (www.businessinsider.com) Russian buyers are flooding out of London's property market, according to an amazing Bloomberg piece. Sanctions, bank limitations on withdrawals, and the shattered ruble are killing Russian demand for luxury London housing. All but the wealthiest oligarchs are getting hit by the country's crisis, according to the article: The number of Russians registered through Christie’s International Real Estate to buy homes in the city dropped by 70 percent in a year, said Giles Hannah, the broker's senior vice president. That has led to a plunge in offers for properties priced at less than 10 million pounds ($16 million) as it becomes more difficult for all but the wealthiest to take money out of their home country. "The banks are limiting what they can withdraw and we're expecting further impact as sanctions kick in," said Hannah, who advised Russian families on 180 million pounds of London property deals in the past two years. "The oligarchs are still spending. They already have banks or lawyers over here that allow them to make purchases."

Bankers See $1 Trillion of Investments Stranded in the Oil Fields - (www.bloomberg.com) There are zombies in the oil fields. After crude prices dropped 49 percent in six months, oil projects planned for next year are the undead -- still standing upright, but with little hope of a productive future. These zombie projects proliferate in expensive Arctic oil, deepwater-drilling regions and tar sands from Canada to Venezuela. In a stunning analysis this week, Goldman Sachs found almost $1 trillion in investments in future oil projects at risk. They looked at 400 of the world’s largest new oil and gas fields -- excluding U.S. shale -- and found projects representing $930 billion of future investment that are no longer profitable with Brent crude at $70. In the U.S., the shale-oil party isn’t over yet, but zombies are beginning to crash it. The chart below shows the break-even points for the top 400 new fields and how much future oil production they represent. Less than a third of projects are still profitable with oil at $70. If the unprofitable projects were scuttled, it would mean a loss of 7.5 million barrels per day of production in 2025, equivalent to 8 percent of current global demand.

The Blacklist That Rules Wall Street’s Loan Market - (www.bloomberg.com)  What do Highland Capital Management, Fortress Investment Group LLC and Cerberus Capital Management have in common? The firms, which manage some $110 billion among them, are on a list that says they can never invest in a $155 million loan that’s trading in U.S. markets. RBS Holding Co., the owner of direct marketer Quadriga Art, banned the three firms and seven others last year from buying parts of the loan, according to two people with knowledge of the matter who asked not to be named because the decision was private. They were deemed, the people said, to be too demanding in debt restructurings, a fate that executives at RBS -- which has no relationship to the Scottish bank -- considered as Quadriga’s business faltered. Unlike any other market in the U.S., the blacklist rules in leveraged loans. No regulator polices trading in the $800 billion market. Here, borrowers -- and the investors who control them -- choose who gets into the club. It would be as if Apple Inc. got to decide who could buy its stock.

Justice Department Probes Currency Exchange Site That Vanished With Cash - (www.bloomberg.com)  The U.S. Department of Justicehas begun a criminal investigation into the foreign exchange trading website Secureinvestment.com, which vanished last May 1 with as much as $1 billion from investors around the world. The Financial and Capital Market Commission in Latvia is also probing the involvement of Latvian banks used by Secure Investment, says agency spokeswoman Elina Avotina. An investigator with the U.S. Attorney’s office for the Eastern District of New York has interviewed Secure investors in the U.S. and Canada, according to the people who were contacted. Two of those people were quoted in “Anything But Secure” in the December issue of Bloomberg Markets magazine. Bloomberg had interviewed customers in 11 countries on five continents who said they saw their money evaporate with Secure Investment when its website disappeared.

The Skinheads of Europe Don't Like Refugees. Neither Do the Doctors and Lawyers - (www.bloomberg.com)  The diplomats, lawyers and celebrities living on the priciest street in Germany’s wealthiest city aren’t thrilled about their new neighbors. Refugees fleeing war zones are moving into the empty office building around the corner from their lakefront road, Harvestehuder Weg, in Hamburg. The four-story building being transformed by borough Mayor Torsten Sevecke sits on a leafy plot abutting a luxury development where apartments cost as much as 7 million euros ($9 million). Locals are suing the city because they’re worried their properties will lose value. “Where will these people buy their groceries? The cheaper supermarkets are far away,” said Barbara, a 70-year-old pensioner who lives in the area but spends most of the year in Spain. She asked that her last name not be published because it would be “embarrassing.” “I’d prefer if the government invests the money in a new building somewhere else.” Record numbers of refugees are arriving in Europe, roiling regional politics and leaving local officials struggling to provide shelter while managing their constituents’ unhappiness. Most displaced people head to Germany and Sweden, where lodgings are being created any place there’s space: in empty schools, campgrounds, a boat on the River Elbe, even purpose-built aluminum crates that resemble shipping containers. In France and Italy, many end up on the street.